Model Output Discussion - heading into April

[Methuselah]

Aaaand, I'm on the farm on Friday too...And, what stonker!

    

Over to you, Churchill: 

[Mark wheeler]

Ukmo 120 likes rather decent .

[Mike Poole]

GFS looking to have got itself in a bit of a mess by T204:

UKMO late today only out to T120 but shows greater potential, but quite different from the ICON at this point:

 

[Mark wheeler]

Final Ukmo 144 chart I’ll take this run 

Edited May 23, 2020 by Mark wheeler

[Allseasons-Si]

UKMO and GFS at 120

i like it that much,i give two gifs

 

[Zak M]

UKMO is pitch perfect up to 120 this evening

GFS also very good with it showing very little signs of a breakdown up to the start of June:

[Allseasons-Si]

UKMO and GFS at 144.nae bad.

nae bad at all.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

5 hours ago, Djdazzle said:

That would be a horrific outcome. Lucky that it’s seriously out of kilter with the mean.

It's hardly evidence of a wet summer; the word "horrific" is, IMO such an overraction to a necessary aspect to summer weather in the UK, surely.  Whether any of us cares to admit it or not, southern and eastern areas need rain - we've had next to nothing since mid-March.

[stodge]

Afternoon all

The key question into the medium term is whether the various HP cells can maintain continuity of settled weather.

The GEM from this morning shows how it can go wrong - the current HP builds and moves NE into Scandinavia but as it gets further away and the ridge orientates away from the UK we need the next build of HP from the Azores to be ready in the wings otherwise the troughs from north and south can extend into the gap and much more unsettled weather will result.

This morning's ECM get sit right for the north with the Azores HP ridging strongly NE but the south comes under the influence of the Iberian trough so showers or perhaps storms. The hint of the next HP cell moving further north and west was present last evening on the GFS Control.

The current 12Z OP gets it right for fans of settled weather:

Note the Azores HP has already split with the core still well to the west of the Azores but a new HP cell developing to the NE and ridging toward us. Unfortunately, as was the 06Z OP, the 12Z OP looks to be developing the core of HP into the mid Atlantic which may not end well for the British Isles as a push of warm upper air into Greenland will drag the trough down over us and leave early June potentially cool and unsettled. A more likely scenario, I think. is the HP sits moe to the NW keeping the hot air well to the south but settled conditions for the British Isles.

[Methuselah]

Gee whiz, if this weather continues for much longer, I'll be young, gifted and black...Or, more likely, old, jobless and white?

    

My apologies to Bob & Marcia!

[mb018538]

2 runs in a row for building a big mid Atlantic high, with low pressure to the east. ECM clusters also show this today as an option.

[Allseasons-Si]

The GEM looks good at 144 too.

[Djdazzle]

3 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

It's hardly evidence of a wet summer; the word "horrific" is, IMO such an overraction to a necessary aspect to summer weather in the UK, surely.  Whether any of us cares to admit it or not, southern and eastern areas need rain - we've had next to nothing since mid-March.

That chart which I posted would be a washout with low double digit maxima. No, it doesn’t indicate a bad summer, but in any case it’s gone from the latest run.

[mb018538]

God no. Anything but a June 2019 re-run! The absolute worst UK summer set up there. Low pressure stuck with nowhere to go. Guaranteed outlier.

[Djdazzle]

Just now, mb018538 said:

God no. Anything but a June 2019 re-run! The absolute worst UK summer set up there. Low pressure stuck with nowhere to go. Guaranteed outlier.

Surely that setup goes against the background signals and anomaly charts? You can bet your life it’s an outlier.

[Mike Poole]

2 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Surely that setup goes against the background signals and anomaly charts? You can bet your life it’s an outlier.

Yes, that can be discounted for sure, it looked wrong much earlier in the run and goes against AAM predictions and SST anomalies.  

[Methuselah]

Oh, sheet!

    

But, at least we might get some rain!

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

13 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

That chart which I posted would be a washout with low double digit maxima. No, it doesn’t indicate a bad summer, but in any case it’s gone from the latest run.

How long would an isolate area of lower heights survive in that set-up, though?  My point is that there seems to be some industrial levels of revisioninsm in this forum resulting in the notion that a couple of days of rain in summer is somehow an extreme outlier.  I'd fully agree that prolonged chilly, wet weather in summer is not pleasant, though I'd argue that the virus is going to have much more of an effect on tourism this year than the weather would, but, as I understand it, high AAM and sea surface temperatures mean that such an outcome is unlikely.

[mb018538]

4 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

How long would an isolate area of lower heights survive in that set-up, though?  My point is that there seems to be some industrial levels of revisioninsm in this forum resulting in the notion that a couple of days of rain in summer is somehow an extreme outlier.  I'd fully agree that prolonged chilly, wet weather in summer is not pleasant, though I'd argue that the virus is going to have much more of an effect on tourism this year than the weather would, but, as I understand it, high AAM and sea surface temperatures mean that such an outcome is unlikely.

It’s not that. It’s an outlier because no other models are showing it, and it’s an ensemble outlier too. Go check the 12z GEM at day 10 - much more likely, fits in the ensembles and the MetO update too.

It won’t be an outlier when it gets to around day 5 and every other model is singing the same tune.

[Methuselah]

But, why would anyone moan about this, anyway? Are daytime maxes of around 18C, combined with the threat of afternoon thunderstorms, really that bad?

     

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Just now, General Cluster said:

But, why would anyone moan about this, anyway? Are daytime maxes of around 18C, combined with the threat of afternoon thunderstorms, really that bad?

     

Don't go there!  Apparently, that would give 10C and persistent rain.

[Mike Poole]

24 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

How long would an isolate area of lower heights survive in that set-up, though?  My point is that there seems to be some industrial levels of revisioninsm in this forum resulting in the notion that a couple of days of rain in summer is somehow an extreme outlier.  I'd fully agree that prolonged chilly, wet weather in summer is not pleasant, though I'd argue that the virus is going to have much more of an effect on tourism this year than the weather would, but, as I understand it, high AAM and sea surface temperatures mean that such an outcome is unlikely.

I don't see it like that at all.  The weather patterns progged by most models and longer range signals do not preclude rain in the form of thundery breakdowns, between the settled intervals.  And many people on here crave thundery weather as do hot weather.  

What most of us (I would suggest) don't want is the kind of 2007 washout that was until quite recently being touted by some as an analogue for this year...fortunately this seems to be very unlikely for the foreseeable.  

I also accept that summer, like winter, rarely impacts the whole UK the same, so I hold my hands up and say that my perspective is Central Southern England.  So what, I live here, more, am confined here, at the moment!

 

Edited May 23, 2020 by Mike Poole

[Allseasons-Si]

The gfs is in cuckoo land according to the gefs ens,if we keep that mean line above +5 then we are OK 

in fact,running the mean out to la la land and it still looks good folks

Edited May 23, 2020 by Allseasons-si

[Mike Poole]

GEM ends well at T240:

I think the high pressure train would continue to rumble ENE from there too, maybe easier to see on the NH plot. 

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

The gfs is in cuckoo land according to the gefs ens,if we keep that mean line above +5 then we are OK 

 

Interestingly, though it is an outlier in terms of temperature, it isn't in terms of ppn.