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Model Output Discussion - heading into April


Paul

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8 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Nothing exceptional on today's GFS 00Z run; but I do find the continuing lack of any useful rainfall a tad worrying:

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Les ensembles:

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Don’t worry about the lack of rain, you know as soon as June comes and lockdown is lifted and pubs are open it’ll rain months.

Seems like a prominent theme this morning of a trough breaking down the weather once again as we head into a weekend, however that is far from certain. 

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Posted
  • Location: Kendray,Barnsley,God's county.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing fog heatwave thunderstorm
  • Location: Kendray,Barnsley,God's county.
18 minutes ago, snowray said:

It is Les Droughtville already around this way, my poor veg need watering every evening, may get a shower today if I'm lucky and that's it for another ten days or so. Northern Britain a different matter.

More in the way of  coming up for the southern half of the country.

GFS 0z 10 day accu rainfall...

 

 

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BTW..I'm down in the SE where you can see 0mm.

I'm in Barnsley. It also says 0mm

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
5 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

It’s only May still. I’d rather the plumes materialise much later on so that we get the maximum benefit from them. Things always seem more negative when the weather outside is naff. Our bar is so high nowadays. 30C is still unusual in May - many summers in the past didn’t see that figure.

.

Exactly! We’ve had a fair few days of 25-28c already....which is 8-10c above average. It’s still May, summer proper doesn’t even start for 9 days. It’s quite rare to see 30c+ this early in the year.

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
1 minute ago, Mr Frost said:

@Djdazzle @mb018538 I am well aware what month it is - cheers though. 

I think you need to re-read my post - you two live in the hottest/sunniest part of the UK hence my post was aimed at warmth/sunshine/convective weather further North and West. (One or two day wonder we had recently isn’t cutting it)

Chat of 30C and plumes has been a load of Betty Swallocks in here for weeks - it was never going to happen this month. 

The outlook is lovely for parts of the South (South East especially) which I stated previously.

Hopefully the warmth can push further North and West as we enter June.

Roll on Summer...⚡

This is the problem with regional differences. But it’s expected that the SE has warmer and drier conditions most of the time. There was a reasonable chance of a plume this month. OK, you may turn out to be right regarding the absence but that was probably through luck!

I do hope you can share in the warmth though.

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Posted
  • Location: Near Worcester
  • Location: Near Worcester
1 minute ago, Bradowl said:

I'm not all that interested in plumes from the South, I'd be happy if day time temperatures were 23 to 25'C all summer. 

I'm not a big fan of sleepless sticky nights these plumes bring. 

Agree, plumes from the South are usually swiftly followed by wet from the West anyway. Happy to see high pressure on top of us.

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
42 minutes ago, Bradowl said:

I'm not all that interested in plumes from the South, I'd be happy if day time temperatures were 23 to 25'C all summer. 

I'm not a big fan of sleepless sticky nights these plumes bring. 

Good Post sir.. We all have our own preferences regarding weather.. I've always thought the majority of people like sunny and settled conditions, so they can get out and about and feel upbeat. Also alot of others like the sun because they love to get a tan! So it matters not a jot whether it's 21C or 35C.. You still get a tan, the upside for me is, its more comfortable of an evening.. These plumes are gr8 for heat lovers... But NO1... they don't last very long.. And NO2... they do not guarantee widespread storm activity.. Just like a fidgid airmass in Winter does not guarantee widespread Snowfalls. Keep in mind that most intense plumes will affect Central Southern And South East areas anyway.. The further North you are the less intense that heat most of the time. 

For the hear and now it's blow your wig off windy again today.. But sunny spells with some showers to the South and West and more to the NW. Beyond that it improves and gradually becomes warmer. Perhaps a brief breakdown come the end of next week.. But confidence is low on this.. But if it does occur, its likely to be brief... With pressure most likely building in again quite quickly. So to sum up.. Not gr8 for you storm and excessive heat lovers or for you in desperate need of rain... But pretty much gr8 for us without mass expectations who just want to top up a tan, and paint the Garden fences.. Enjoy your weekends, and stay safe.. And try not to wear an hairpiece..

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Edited by MATT☀️
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Well, I'd be more-than-happy with this: the long wait for some meaningful rainfall could be over, very soon...? Then again, it might not!

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Thunderstorms? Well...Yes please!:clapping:

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
3 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Well, I'd be more-than-happy with this: the long wait for some meaningful rainfall could be over, very soon...? Then again, it might not!

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Thunderstorms? Well...Yes please!:clapping:

That would be a horrific outcome. Lucky that it’s seriously out of kilter with the mean.

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

GFS has high pressure dominating up to day 10

With the low in the north bumping into the warm, humid air in the south > a thundery breakdown with very needed rain in some places could occur

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

image.thumb.png.b4607aa5c6603e9760661de2915f5ff5.png

 

Another gfs op run that loses the plot. So many recently!

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

I think this mornings GEM was by and large a diamond.. Only a temporary blip, with it being mainly settled and warm.. Also positive Exter update, with brief blip followed by more settled conditions... Also very warm at times away from the NW.. I'll take that to the Bank. 

Edit.. Even the NW becoming increasingly settled as well. 

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Edited by MATT☀️
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Well, here we go: the GFS 12Z off to a screamer at T+0!:clapping::oldlaugh:

h850t850eu.png

Edited by General Cluster
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Well folks, I'm on the farm again, on Tuesday...and, as the late, great Richard Pennyman used to say: Wham bama looma!:clapping:

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RIP Little Richard!:oldgood:

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
15 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Well folks, I'm on the farm again, on Tuesday...and, as the late, great Richard Pennyman used to say: Wham bama looma!:clapping:

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RIP Little Richard!:oldgood:

As the great man would say to the Atlantic:

”You keep a knockin’ but you can’t come in!”

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Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
6 minutes ago, shaky said:

Any updates on latest 12z ukmo and gfs?

Ukmo out to 72 Hours 

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now 96 

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Edited by Mark wheeler
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