Model Output Discussion - heading into April

[Mike Poole]

Big four at T120, all on the same page:

Think I marginally prefer UKMO, with ECM second at the mo...but that is splitting hairs, they are all excellent.

Edited May 21, 2020 by Mike Poole

[Zak M]

144 is a beauty!!

[Mike Poole]

Not sure at T168, I've gone all NH for this one:

Not sure how the big high breaks off and heads towards Scandi?

[Djdazzle]

Just now, Mike Poole said:

Not sure at T168, I've gone all NH for this one:

Not sure how the big high breaks off and heads towards Scandi?

Yep that looks wrong.

[Zak M]

An okay end to the ECM at 240:

[mb018538]

ECM is great day 8-10. Low pressure staying away to the NW (far NW May see some rain) with high pressure and warmer air hanging on for many. Bank!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

And JUST LIKE That.. We appear to have a full house with the models today.. These early signs are oh... So very promising. 

Just to say the clap we are receiving around here is more Immense than its ever been.. Big up the NHS... Stay safe all. 

[Mike Poole]

15 minutes ago, Zak M said:

An okay end to the ECM at 240:

Yes, I think it is fair to claim a full house, despite a slight wobble midstream on that one.  JMA providing the bonus ball at T192:

[Man With Beard]

This UKMO

is just crying out for a stalled trough to the west of Ireland with pressure building over the top. Haven't seen any models try yet but surely possible considering the strength of the ridge. If it happens, we may get winds from a hot south and temps into the 30Cs by the end of next week. 

[tight isobar]

14 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

This UKMO

is just crying out for a stalled trough to the west of Ireland with pressure building over the top. Haven't seen any models try yet but surely possible considering the strength of the ridge. If it happens, we may get winds from a hot south and temps into the 30Cs by the end of next week. 

A huge potential turn...been watching this *potential* evo for a few days..scope for a conversion and more direct iberian sourced draw...

Then the thermo goes into overdrive!!!

 

 

[Mark wheeler]

Well I’ve seen the runs today and everything has gone crazy . I felt a little like below and now the Navgem is really upping the ante . It’s all good and the ecm at only 12 hours difference.

Edited May 21, 2020 by Mark wheeler

[damianslaw]

Models showing a generally fine spell of weather next week, with high pressure ridging northwards and holding the atlantic at bay largely away from far NW, homegrown heat building rather than any especially warm uppers from off the continent.

I will throw out some caution though, as always best sticking to the reliable 6 day timeframe, and expect changes in medium output that why you don't get disappointed when on the next run things have changed - something you learn preety quickly when watching the model runs,but often ignore when the models show you what you want to see! Not saying the next model runs will show something different to this evening, but always best to keep an open mind.

[Scorcher]

12 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

 

I will throw out some caution though, as always best sticking to the reliable 6 day timeframe, and expect changes in medium output that why you don't get disappointed when on the next run things have changed - something you learn preety quickly when watching the model runs,but often ignore when the models show you what you want to see! Not saying the next model runs will show something different to this evening, but always best to keep an open mind.

Caution is always wise but I think we have seen a major trend in the right direction this evening. I have high hopes that things will be even better in the morning.

[Mr Frost]

Spare a thought for us poor folk in the NW - heavy rain and gale force winds arriving in the early hours!  (Most of Friday and Saturday up here in the West of Scotland)

ECM:

 

GFS:

 

Looking at gusts approaching 50mph here - not uncommon but still what I would call a wee bit windy for the time of year! 

Expecting a max temperature of 14C tomorrow and 12C on Saturday - you just have to laugh. 

Even more funny when you see the latest temperatures showing up at the moment down South! 

 

Anyways I am sure myself and many others will join in the hot weather fun (25C +) at some point during the Summer.

All the best to you all and have a great weekend!

Cheers. 

[ChannelThunder]

12 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

Spare a thought for us poor folk in the NW - heavy rain and gale force winds arriving in the early hours!  (Most of Friday and Saturday up here in the West of Scotland)

ECM:

 

GFS:

 

Looking at gusts approaching 50mph here - not uncommon but still what I would call a wee bit windy for the time of year! 

Expecting a max temperature of 14C tomorrow and 12C on Saturday - you just have to laugh. 

Even more funny when you see the latest temperatures showing up at the moment down South! 

 

Anyways I am sure myself and many others will join in the hot weather fun (25C +) at some point during the Summer.

All the best to you all and have a great weekend!

Cheers. 

I'd swap you if I could. I love gales and heavy rain, and I'm especially craving that with the bore-fest weather we've had for months now. I do love summery weather too, but you can have too much, and the bedroom is already like an oven tonight!

Edited May 21, 2020 by Lance M

[shaky]

Brilliant 18z so far!!sunny amd warm all of next week for england and wales at the very least!!

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

48 minutes ago, shaky said:

Brilliant 18z so far!!sunny amd warm all of next week for england and wales at the very least!!

Ending with dream charts for farmers and water companies.    

[Mark wheeler]

22 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

Ending with dream charts for farmers and water companies.    

Weird how nature works , Glad the deluge of December, January and February is now being countered by our fabulous weather now , I get the farmer’s will be screwing and let’s hope we get some heavy overnight rain to ease the pain .   

Edited May 21, 2020 by Mark wheeler

[Josh Rubio]

21 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

Ending with dream charts for farmers and water companies.    

A decent amount of rain modelled I assume? 

As much as the majority like dry, warm and settled weather, we could do with a proper soaking countrywide for a day or two, just momentarily, to stop things from drying out and going yellow. 
 

[Mark wheeler]

GFS 18z being saucy tonight by showing a pair . Looks like the Smash adverts .

Edited May 21, 2020 by Mark wheeler

[Methuselah]

Good morning, folks! Well after a sweaty night, a three-day spell of fresher weather...before, by Tuesday, the warmth'll be back:

    

     

      

      

      

So, the GFS rollercoaster just keeps a'rollin' on!

    

    

But...the GFS operational run turns into a right STINKER; so, hold on to your stomachs!

                           

Edited May 22, 2020 by General Cluster

[Guest]

So once todays low clears out the way high pressure builds in once again. All the models in pretty much agreement out until day 5 or 6, GFS then appears to go on one with its regression once again and there is a wide spread in the ensembles post Thursday, UKMO probably the best @ T144 this morning but the difference is small between all the output really. One thing is clear that next week looks mostly fine and dry meaning Its highly likely in the south April & May will end up being the sunniest combination on record. As usual positioning of the high is all important, none of the models get the 10C 850 isotherm in over the UK and upper atmospherics aren't support of any really advection of warmth from the south so its a slow warming trend relying on incremental day on day heating to warm out the atmosphere. I actually think GFS is being pretty optimistic showing 25C for London on Monday with 850's of just 6C, I think low 20s in the south high teens further north is more likely for most of the week, still off course  very pleasant for late May. Unfortunately the current pattern is an absolute no go for anything convective so we really need pressure slightly further east to even consider any fun in this department.

[Guest]

ECM bucks the trend and does introduce more warmth, temps into the mid 20's by the middle of the week, a very warm end with 30/31C possible as 850's of 16C sneak into the east, however this is clearly going against almost all of models and should be a pretty big outlier within its own ensemble pack. 

[Man With Beard]

ECM this morning - I'm just going to report what it says - but something doesn't look right. Raw Maxes next week (which you can normally add a couple of degrees on to get the actual maximum): Tues 25C, Wed 27C, Thurs 27C, Fri 29C, Sat 28C, Sun 32C!

Just didn't expect that amount of warmth to remain in situ after next Thursday ... but hey, beyond my pay-scale

 

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

ECM this morning - I'm just going to report what it says - but something doesn't look right. Raw Maxes next week (which you can normally add a couple of degrees on to get the actual maximum): Tues 25C, Wed 27C, Thurs 27C, Fri 29C, Sat 28C, Sun 32C!

Just didn't expect that amount of warmth to remain in situ after next Thursday ... but hey, beyond my pay-scale

 

As I mentioned above it's an outlier against the other modes, will only imagine its a stonking outlier within its own ensemble groupings