Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model Output Discussion - heading into April


Paul

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

The eye increasingly drawn to the flow=source of the bounce back of pressure rises next week...

sutle atm..but increasingly switching to an iberian upflow!!

plume synoptics just a hares breath away....and as AGAIN...my punt for yet the hottest inflow so far!!!

gfs-0-162.png

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex

GFS seems more keen to retrogress the high than the other models. Then again, it was keen for the Atlantic to blast through next week.

It does seem good at spotting patterns, then overplaying them, after which it corrects back.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
11 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

GFS seems more keen to retrogress the high than the other models. Then again, it was keen for the Atlantic to blast through next week.

It does seem good at spotting patterns, then overplaying them, after which it corrects back.

Aye, DJ, I've also noticed that...maybe even a chance of an unpleasant northerly developing, post Day 10?

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

But I'm nae worried as yet; many of our more memorable Julys have followed indifferent Junes...

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

Day 6? Perfecto! :oldlaugh:

h500slp.thumb.png.d2dc2ffb24b70c917749a34a683cba44.png   h850t850eu.thumb.png.18d15f1f8cf9bc7f1f213223aacbfd0b.png   ukmaxtemp.thumb.png.2f7eafb05ed128ba1e0519c3f9e45a45.png

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

I thought it was odd that there were no Euro related comments and the reason is clear, Euro breaks down at day 8 after peaking at day 7. 

spacer.png

GFS also has a peak at day 6 and then retrogresses the mean high however it does not properly break down.

spacer.png

Edited by summer blizzard
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey

Navgem up to its favourite trick

F1C30DEA-BC3C-4E84-8674-F1D13FBCAAD7.png

70B7B081-D727-4155-A5D4-DB5E525DC5A1.png

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
1 minute ago, Mark wheeler said:

Navgem up to its favourite trick

F1C30DEA-BC3C-4E84-8674-F1D13FBCAAD7.png

70B7B081-D727-4155-A5D4-DB5E525DC5A1.png

What snow? When? Where? How deep?:oldlaugh:

  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Well folks, the good news is that, for June 2nd (the forty-fifth anniversary of the last time lowland snow fell widely in the UK) the GFS 06Z is a real, live outlier...And not a very pleasant outlier, at that!:oldgrin:

t850Bedfordshire.png    t2mBedfordshire.png

  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
2 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

I thought it was odd that there were no Euro related comments and the reason is clear, Euro breaks down at day 8 after peaking at day 7. 

spacer.png

GFS also has a peak at day 6 and then retrogresses the mean high however it does not properly break down.

spacer.png

EC looks mainly settled and GFS 6Z is an outlier?

Models look great for dry weather as far as i can see.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire

I don't think I've seen so much high pressure programmed so extensively at mid-latitudes - on virtually every model it runs from the west coast of the North American continent to Siberia. This is on actual pressure charts, anomaly charts, any charts

image.thumb.png.f9f756d6d3c15c8b819ce063db003ee8.png

Great at this time of year but a bit weird. Could do with some thundery (but still warm) spells to relieve the thirsty brown and yellow grass and baked ground. It looks like mid/late August after a hot summer around these here Bedfordshire parts. Incredible

Edited by LRD
  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Cracking icon run, brings the +12 uppers into the South this time next week. So far so good.. Apple ciders all around guys.. icon-1-171.thumb.png.b262a75fa24b051fafe826c3d9dda6a8.png

icon-0-96.png

icon-0-120.png

icon-0-144.png

icon-1-144.png

icon-0-168.png

  • Like 9
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex

Hoping that the GFS 12z run is wrong, as it’s horrific past 180. That pattern certainly won’t lead to a warm and settled June.

Edited by Djdazzle
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

A bank holiday approaches: h850t850eu.png   

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

Get ready for some warm weather next week once again!!

gem-0-114.png

Edited by Zak M
  • Like 5
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey

Ukmo certainly better than Goofus 

1E8EE6D2-5210-4415-8F16-50A51D38F068.gif

3C68C5CF-873F-4E9E-AFFF-12EA0E0E9650.png

Edited by Mark wheeler
  • Like 6
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Delph, historic West Riding of Yorkshire, 225m asl
  • Weather Preferences: All 4 seasons and a good mixture of everything and anything!
  • Location: Delph, historic West Riding of Yorkshire, 225m asl
29 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Hoping that the GFS 12z run is wrong, as it’s horrific past 180. That pattern certainly won’t lead to a warm and settled June.

To elaborate a tad further, 

HP builds back in very much so by D4

image.thumb.png.6e601aca50412ade4b6ec1b664876f73.png

But a few days after looking ahead to D7 onward it starts to fade and by D10 we're very much in what looks to be an unsettled and cooler pattern

image.thumb.png.53702b397f2956827ff719ad3a85a994.png

image.thumb.png.2b17afc99c4c490e7c5e45a7e7efa3c9.png

Will need to look at the ensembles as some of the uppers for around that time seem somewhat unthinkably low in relation to some of the output we've seen recently

image.thumb.png.808b2edc1cc575105c9bccd2b722126b.png

 

But I'm not going to say it won't lead to warm and settled June - if these charts were to come off I don't think they really give any suggestions to what June may bring

 

Edit - I mentioned it'd be more unsettled with these types of charts, but not overly so - precipitation would probably be in the form of showers rather than longer spells of rain

Edited by StretfordEnd1996
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
9 minutes ago, StretfordEnd1996 said:

To elaborate a tad further, 

HP builds back in very much so by D4

image.thumb.png.6e601aca50412ade4b6ec1b664876f73.png

But a few days after looking ahead to D7 onward it starts to fade and by D10 we're very much in what looks to be an unsettled and cooler pattern

image.thumb.png.53702b397f2956827ff719ad3a85a994.png

image.thumb.png.2b17afc99c4c490e7c5e45a7e7efa3c9.png

Will need to look at the ensembles as some of the uppers for around that time seem somewhat unthinkably low in relation to some of the output we've seen recently

image.thumb.png.808b2edc1cc575105c9bccd2b722126b.png

 

But I'm not going to say it won't lead to warm and settled June - if these charts were to come off I don't think they really give any suggestions to what June may bring

My point about June is that the pattern shown by the GFS can be quite hard to shift, with HP sat way out in the Atlantic. Of course, the op may be wide of the mark.

Edited by Djdazzle
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

But any June pattern can stick, DJ? And I quite like this one!:oldgrin:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

And, what's more, the 12Z op is one of the coldest within the ensemble:

t850Bedfordshire.png    t2mBedfordshire.png

So defo not to be taken as gospel!

Edited by General Cluster
  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire
39 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

A bank holiday approaches: h850t850eu.png   

That's not approaching a bank holiday GC. Bank Holiday is THIS Monday  

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...