Model Output Discussion - heading into April

[Mike Poole]

JMA T192, similar to the others

It is all good on this afternoon runs.

[Allseasons-Si]

Evening all just got in from a lengthy shop at the supermarket(Aldi),what another lovely set of models this afternoon/evening

29 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM T216:

heat building. And still HP well to the east, cracking run this.

That's 192 Mike but i see where you are coming from

i will add the JMA as that too looks good upto 192

yes cooler air looks to be encroaching from the NW but will it

in the nearer term i am looking forward to tomorrows heat,get the shorts and t-shirt on,BBQ on,ice-creams out and make the most of it 

 

Edited May 19, 2020 by Allseasons-si

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, MATT said:

We can't complain with the 12s today.. Hopefully a good mean to come, also some heat building on the ECM towards the backend.. Dare I say it.... A cheeky 30c!! Either way there's plenty of lift ya spirits conditions to look forward to.... Dare I say it... A cheeky little barbi and a couple of cold ones to boot..

Complain? How can anyone complain? It's nae even summer, for almost another two-weeks! And it's already Sunburn Central! 

[Mark wheeler]

50 minutes ago, Zak M said:

ECM at 144 is looking good:

Love the cheeky little smile over southern England .

[Mike Poole]

6 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Evening all just got in from a lengthy shop at the supermarket(Aldi),what another lovely set of models this afternoon/evening

That's 192 Mike but i see where you are coming from

i will add the JMA as that too looks good upto 192

yes cooler air looks to be encroaching from the NW but will it

in the nearer term i am looking forward to tomorrows heat,get the shorts and t-shirt on,BBQ on,ice-creams out and make the most of it 

 

Thanks Si, corrected in earlier post.

[Guest]

Don't get me wrong this spell of whether is amazing, but I'm getting annoyed all the best weather is during the working week with the breakdown's coming towards a Thursday/Friday. looks the same next week. Still good support for the middle of next week to at least match today & tomorrow. 

[Djdazzle]

3 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Don't get me wrong this spell of whether is amazing, but I'm getting annoyed all the best weather is during the working week with the breakdown's coming towards a Thursday/Friday. looks the same next week. Still good support for the middle of next week to at least match today & tomorrow. 

Who says there will be a breakdown next week? That’s la la land!

[Mark wheeler]

Now the main runs are done let’s pull out the almighty Navgem ,

 

Edit - it’s not far off the 192 ECM Navgem was 180 , to my very amateur eye anyway!

Edited May 19, 2020 by Mark wheeler

[Mike Poole]

9 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Who says there will be a breakdown next week? That’s la la land!

Yes agreed, obviously this weekend some kind of Atlantic glancing blow is  going to happen, but the following week, far to uncertain to tell.

1 minute ago, Mark wheeler said:

Now the main runs are done let’s pull out the almighty Navgem ,

NAVGEM is famous for overblowing temperatures in this situation quite spectacularly. 

[Mark wheeler]

8 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes agreed, obviously this weekend some kind of Atlantic glancing blow is  going to happen, but the following week, far to uncertain to tell.

NAVGEM is famous for overblowing temperatures in this situation quite spectacularly. 

I was just about to post the difference between the 2  all be it 12 hours apart .I remember navgem forecasting 44c last year if memory serves me right , I was surprised it was so cool yesterday .

Edited May 19, 2020 by Mark wheeler

[MATTWOLVES 3]

I've seen that many orange and reds today, me eyes are starting to burn.. Well folks heres a few more of them colours for ya... Courtesy of the ECM mean.. Gr8 day of model watching... Far better than trainspotting.. Enjoy your evenings. 

Here are those all important ens. Not bad. 

Edited May 19, 2020 by MATT☀️

[Mike Poole]

ECM ensemble mean, T168:

Backs up most op runs, T240:

This still looks good, but I think we might get much less retrogression of the high by this point at 10 days. 

[damianslaw]

Looking at the short term - its an interesting synoptical evolution, high pressure ridging north through the UK very quickly and into Scandi drawing in a surge of very warm uppers for the time of year and consequent early heat - though not to untoward now we are moving into late May. A cold front then moving through but hardly cooling anything down - always wonder why certain cold fronts don't bring a change in temps. Then a quite abnormal development for May a sudden low pressure development, deep with strong winds sweeping the UK.

Would welcome others thoughts on reason for this sudden low development? Is this a sign of things to come this summer? Anything to do with SST values in the atlantic. Interesting to note some models are showing another low pressure disturbance out of nowhere later in May.

 

[Mark wheeler]

No Gem tonight then , seems stuck for hours now .

Edited May 19, 2020 by Mark wheeler

[Djdazzle]

Date record 28.3 tomorrow. Surely under threat?

[Man With Beard]

7 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Date record 28.3 tomorrow. Surely under threat?

AROME going for 28C around Cambridge. 

[Man With Beard]

Spectacular temps on ECM for next week again, getting into the 80s by midweek, but there's a bit of good cop bad cop going on between the 00Z and 12Z at the moment, with the 12Z often 2-3C higher than the 00z 

[Djdazzle]

12 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

AROME going for 28C around Cambridge. 

Fair chance then.

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, Djdazzle said:

Fair chance then.

Surprised we haven't squeezed out a 29 degrees 20 may before. Would have thought most days in may will have recorded a maxima of 29 degrees at some point, perhaps not. 

[Mark wheeler]

Gems rolling again . Early doors still .

[Daniel*]

1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

Surprised we haven't squeezed out a 29 degrees 20 may before. Would have thought most days in may will have recorded a maxima of 29 degrees at some point, perhaps not. 

You’ll appreciate this website!

TORRO - British Weather Extremes: Daily Minimum Temperatures

WWW.TORRO.ORG.UK

---

The Tornado and Storm Research Organisation or 'TORRO' is a privately supported research body, serving the national and international public interest.

 

[Frosty.]

Ukmo 0h still looks stellar at T+144 hours, ICON 0z similar..fingers crossed!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

11 hours ago, Alderc said:

Don't get me wrong this spell of whether is amazing, but I'm getting annoyed all the best weather is during the working week with the breakdown's coming towards a Thursday/Friday. looks the same next week. Still good support for the middle of next week to at least match today & tomorrow. 

happened last few summers, warm spike timed for Tue/Wed, then cooler, then warm spike due again around Tues

same as northerly topplers, timed for Fri or Sat, topple Sun/Mon

[Methuselah]

GFS 00Z looking good for the start of next week:

    

And Friday's nae bad, either:

    

Breakdown? What breakdown!Oh, right: that breakdown!

    

And the GEFS ensembles suggest that the op may be going off one one, towards Day 16. Who'd a'thunk it!

    

[thestixx]

32 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

happened last few summers, warm spike timed for Tue/Wed, then cooler, then warm spike due again around Tues

same as northerly topplers, timed for Fri or Sat, topple Sun/Mon

We had a Yorkshire Tuesday night with an 11pm temp of 25°C. I was sat outside just enjoying the scarcity of it.