Model Output Discussion - heading into April

[Daniel*]

1 hour ago, Kentspur said:

Seeing as the ECM ensemble mean for London is showing a continuation of summer like conditions throughout the rest of the month, I was wondering what the record is for the amount of May days with somewhere recording temps in the 20s in the UK? As except for maybe this Saturday every other day looks to remain 20c+ for many of us. It very much feels like June/ July already down here with the high UV levels the same as late July

It has not been a warm first half to May on cool side actually, up to this time of month April was warmer with more 20c days it had 7 we are on 5 currently. 

Heathrow had 16, 20c+ days in 2018 I’m assuming this is the record. We are on 5 as of today up to Saturday we will be on 10. It is extremely unlikely, mathematically it is possible if every day apart from 1 achieves it. I’m looking at ECM in longer range and it isn’t very hopeful.. 

[feb1991blizzard]

11 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

It has not been a warm first half to May on cool side actually, up to this time of month April was warmer with more 20c days it had 7 we are on 5 currently. 

Heathrow had 16, 20c+ days in 2018 I’m assuming this is the record. We are on 5 as of today up to Saturday we will be on 10. It is extremely unlikely, mathematically it is possible if every day apart from 1 achieves it. I’m looking at ECM in longer range and it isn’t very hopeful.. 

Its gonna end up an average to above average month though.

[Kentspur]

12 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

It has not been a warm first half to May on cool side actually, up to this time of month April was warmer with more 20c days it had 7 we are on 5 currently. 

Heathrow had 16, 20c+ days in 2018 I’m assuming this is the record. We are on 5 as of today up to Saturday we will be on 10. It is extremely unlikely, mathematically it is possible if every day apart from 1 achieves it. I’m looking at ECM in longer range and it isn’t very hopeful.. 

Looking at BBC forecasts its showing 17days for my area on the basis were on 5 as of today it shows every day at 20+ bar this saturday at 19c so it's possible. Obviously the start of May tends to be cooler than the end of May on balance

[mb018538]

27 minutes ago, Premier Neige said:

2018?

Nah. Spring 2018 wasn’t as good as a whole. March was cold. April had snow at the start too, then the warm middle - but was wetter than average. May was fantastic, and we all know about June and July...this spring will be better as a whole. Since mid March it’s been almost faultless.

2018 - 4.9/9.8/13.2

2020 - 6.7/10.4/???

This year will be warmer overall, guaranteed.

Edited May 18, 2020 by mb018538

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Here comes the warmth..

[Guest]

Well once again this morning GFS OPS is a notable cold outlier for the second half of the run. GEM is outstanding and has a 32c over London next London, the GEM run has lots of support from a number of the gfs ensembles. It really amazing how high pressure is going to establish itself so strongly. 

The only annoying thing is that two very warm weeks will be sandwiched by a cooler bank holiday weekend which is the only time I have of work!! 

[Methuselah]

Looks like the GFS 00Z is having a few wobbles. But, for those of us wanting/needing rain, maybe that's nae such a bad thing?

    

    

    

    

    

    

But the 00Z op is way down on the cool side of the GEFS ensembles:

    

    

And, as for that deep depression!

Meanwhile...the farm beckons!

Edited May 19, 2020 by General Cluster

[Singularity]

There’s a bit of a drop in GLAAM on the way which will be where the idea of focusing high pressure a bit west of the UK comes from... but GFS tends to overdo the declining phase of the AAM cycle, so a big caveat on what it shows past about a weeks time.
 

Other modelling hints at such developments but shows plenty of resistance to fully shifting the high west of the UK. ECM goes down the sort of hybridised route - enhanced subtropical highs but without focusing that over the N Atlantic - that we saw in May-June 2018. The 1030+ mb belt at +168 is absolutely phenomenal.

[Frosty.]

Just had a peek at the ECM 0z ensemble mean and it’s good news if you prefer predominantly fine and warm weather thanks to high pressure, especially across southern u k...just a blink or miss it Atlantic breakdown, most noticeable further NW and then high pressure returns, the jet is pushed further north so at worst longer term its a north / south or northwest / southeast split with the south doing best as one would expect!..in the meantime there’s lots of summery weather to enjoy but a thundery breakdown for the s / se / east anglia during Thursday.
 

 

[summer blizzard]

Euro and GFS both advertising the potential of some retrogression of the mean high however before that point we see pressure building over and east of the UK over the Bank Holiday Weekend with a probable peak in temperature at day 7. 

[Zak M]

Anyone want a north-south split on day 7?

Warm and dry in the south but cooler and perhaps some rain in the north.

   

[Man With Beard]

EC clusters unchanged from yesterday morning. Still not absolutely certain how affected the S/E will be by the incoming post-tropical storm on Friday, most other areas certain to see a short unsettled spell

Next week continues to look very good away from the far N/W, a more changeable picture less than 20% chance (cluster 4)

And much much further into June, still that hint that heights will draw west, but with the caveat being, whether that has been forecast in the D11-D15 timeframe, it almost always corrects somewhat east nearer the time, so a continuation of a UK high doesn't look an unreasonable bet either

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Lovely conditions the next couple of days before a temporary easing come Thurs and Fri... Could be a good Thunderstorm risk by then.. Hopefully that comes off for you guys who are desperate to see a bit of flashing.. Beyond that things looking good again, and dare I say it... +12c very close to the South Coast come day 7..perhaps it comes a little cooler beyond that, but pressure does look to remain on the high side for some time. 

Edited May 19, 2020 by MATT☀️

[tight isobar]

On 17/05/2020 at 08:53, tight isobar said:

Signs continue to *weaken* for Atlantic inroads...and again any incur looks shortlived at best...

The ens firing up the quickly back to high pressure domination!

And for fun im going solid  on 30c..to be breached between 27=30 may...southern England.

Ops and ens likely aligning further or both recurrence and heat sourcing...with the remaining wetter =cooler threat though for the more northern. Especially north western geographical points...

 

All on course for the above....@peak temperatures! @30c+

Also momentum gains for june...in-what imo is likely a damn fine month coming up...overall....

Edited May 19, 2020 by tight isobar

[Northwest NI]

45 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Anyone want a north-south split on day 7?

Warm and dry in the south but cooler and perhaps some rain in the north.

   

Why would anyone want that?

[Frosty.]

Looking at the Gfs 6z operational and zooming in on the much anticipated heat spike tomorrow for the s / se..the Gfs indicates 26c but I think we can add a few degrees to that so 28c 82f probably the max in most favoured spots..as for the thunderstorm risk on Thursday further s / se, yes there still is a T-Storm risk on Thursday!

 

[mb018538]

1 hour ago, JON SNOW said:

Looking at the Gfs 6z operational and zooming in on the much anticipated heat spike tomorrow for the s / se..the Gfs indicates 26c but I think we can add a few degrees to that so 28c 82f probably the max in most favoured spots..as for the thunderstorm risk on Thursday further s / se, yes there still is a T-Storm risk on Thursday!

 

 

Easily. Even the 6z run for this afternoon showed 23c in London - it’s already 25c. Same for my neck of the woods....shows a 20c max.....it’s nearly 24c now. Hopeless as ever.

[Sweatyman]

21 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

 

Easily. Even the 6z run for this afternoon showed 23c in London - it’s already 25c. Same for my neck of the woods....shows a 20c max.....it’s nearly 24c now. Hopeless as ever.

20 for Brum. Currently 23c

[LRD]

Incredible amounts of high pressure forecast across the models, including this anomaly chart...

Looks extreme. Virtually unbroken mid-latitude high anomalies from West of the US to Siberia

[Methuselah]

Not sure whether the fact that the GFS 06Z op is on the colder (and lower SLP) side of the ensemble is good news or not; there's so much uncertainty (after 27/5) any guessing might be futile. But, anyway:

    

    

But, be that as it may, I've already gotten my best tan since spending the first two weeks of July 1987 holidaying in Devon. And it's still only mid May!!!

[Mike Poole]

Well, ICON ends well!

At T180, probably a bit early to see whether the high is inclined to retrogress west, which is what I will be looking out for on the 12s.  I think GFS was too ready with this on the earlier runs, let's see.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Lovely icon if settled is your thing.. Looks like the barbi is gonna be working overtime early summer.. No pun intended

[mb018538]

 

UKMO 144 - here comes the heat again  

[SMU]

A superb set of 12z runs - Im beginning to think my Tues Weds days off are going to end up spot on for a bit of garden relaxing again...

Late Sun onwards could be a run of stunning days - especially for the south- Temps heading up 25-26c.

[mb018538]

14 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

A superb set of 12z runs - Im beginning to think my Tues Weds days off are going to end up spot on for a bit of garden relaxing again...

Late Sun onwards could be a run of stunning days - especially for the south- Temps heading up 25-26c.

Must be a chance of high 20s by midweek Steve? High thicknesses and decent 850s? I’d say 28-29c is certainly possible.