Model Output Discussion - heading into April

[Djdazzle]

1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

Similar to last year when we got +23c uppers & it wasnt that hot!

That was so frustrating! Who'd have thought that a month later, we'd getter another go at very high uppers, which resulted in the all-time record being broken.

[Guest]

Just now, Djdazzle said:

That was so frustrating! Who'd have thought that a month later, we'd getter another go at very high uppers, which resulted in the all-time record being broken.

Yes 20c uppers are mega rare, but to get three lots (think it happened over August bh weekend as well) in one summer was exceptional. 

[Leo97t]

14 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Yes 20c uppers are mega rare, but to get three lots (think it happened over August bh weekend as well) in one summer was exceptional. 

not quite, got to 18/19c I believe

[Mark wheeler]

1 hour ago, Alderc said:

Looks nice but air trapped below the high is quite cool and will take a while to warm out. 

Yes I saw that , I was just happy with the general trend of high pressure more establishing itself , very useful weather even if it’s not scorching.

[Ben Sainsbury]

I don't know what the ICON 12z is on tonight but I love it!

[SMU]

6 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

I don't know what the ICON 12z is on tonight but I love it!

yes just looked. Awsome-

Dry hot & stationary air. -perfecto

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

yes just looked. Awsome-

Dry hot & stationary air. -perfecto

Problem is - not just for me - even for heat fans - you will either be stuck in a factory working or stuck in your house.

[johnholmes]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Problem is - not just for me - even for heat fans - you will either be stuck in a factory working or stuck in your house.

Do you not have a garden you can get in, are you not able to drive to a nearby park for some fresh air?

[Mike Poole]

Yes, it is a belter...

Todays models so far seem to confirm that the Thursday/Friday blip is a glancing blow from the Atlantic and is very soon replaced with warm to hot settled weather.  Illustrated very well by the ICON 12z run.

Edited May 18, 2020 by Mike Poole

[Djdazzle]

ICON - bank please!

[SMU]

58 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Problem is - not just for me - even for heat fans - you will either be stuck in a factory working or stuck in your house.

Been lucky - Me & wifey are managers with same company so we split days & do 7-3 or 3-10 so alongside 2 days off a week we have 2 days where we get all day in the sun till 230- lucky I guess > Kids love it...

 

Anyway GFS is more amplified through 114 which net sees more of the south benefitting - this will also pay us back Sun / Mon as well!

Edited May 18, 2020 by Steve Murr

[mb018538]

 

A good example of not using 500mb and SLP to determine temperature. Air is fairly cool considering how that chart ‘looks’.

[Djdazzle]

2 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

 

A good example of not using 500mb and SLP to determine temperature. Air is fairly cool considering how that chart ‘looks’.

Maybe uppers being underdone?

Would still be warm / very warm at the surface though.

[mb018538]

5 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Maybe uppers being underdone?

Would still be warm / very warm at the surface though.

GFS says 17-21c. Plenty of surface heating in late May as you say. Very hard to say this far off. Pleasant rather than very warm perhaps.

[Mike Poole]

GFS to T192:

Apart from blowing up Thursday's low rather ridiculously, it's a very good run. And could well be setting up for a settled warm spell with some longevity, the better the further south, with the jet stream settling down into a more northerly track:

[Kentspur]

56 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Problem is - not just for me - even for heat fans - you will either be stuck in a factory working or stuck in your house.

Or like me stuck outside in it working

[Allseasons-Si]

I know others have commented on the ICON and it does look good from a 500mb height perspective but the temps are not that warm yet but i do hope that the other models build on this scenario and maybe from there we could have some warm-er weather to look forward to

here are the three at the moment

UKMO,GFS,and ICON at 144 hrs

Now the ICON is the most progressive model in terms of building the high more over the UK where as the UKMO is the least progressive with GFS the middle ground but in fairness all the above look to produce some nice weather again by next weekend,in the short term there is some nice weather to be had(a tad windy and cloudy here today but not cold)in the next few days

enjoy the rest of your afternoon guys 

take care.

Edited May 18, 2020 by Allseasons-si
spell check

[Djdazzle]

GEM looking good again.

[Zak M]

The GEM isn't too bad on day 7:

   

[mb018538]

Looking ever more likely that by Sunday or Monday it’s settled again pretty much everywhere. Temperatures to be determined, but looking good!  

[Allseasons-Si]

9 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

GEM looking good again.

Yes it does but not as good as this mornings run though but i will take it,there does seem to be some agreement there about that time-frame,day 6> 

Edited May 18, 2020 by Allseasons-si

[MKN]

Yet again this week the gfs looks to be under cooking max daily temps. About time this issue was fixed. 

[Mike Poole]

Here's the GEM then:

And getting quite toasty at the end:

[Methuselah]

Another wee blip on June 2nd?

    

And, with any luck, yet another reload?

    

Nae much rain around, though?

[Djdazzle]

3 minutes ago, MKN said:

Yet again this week the gfs looks to be under cooking max daily temps. About time this issue was fixed. 

Always been the same in my 17 years of model watching!