Model Output Discussion - heading into April

[shaky]

Fantastic output from the main 3 this morning!!!high pressure warmth and sun all the way!!

[Djdazzle]

If life was simple in model land, all of the models would be on the same page for the 12z runs. 

Wonder if the ECM will jump ship, just to frustrate us . . .

[mushymanrob]

3 hours ago, Alderc said:

Its almost laughable, GFS 06Z reverts to the ECM 12Z flamethrower approach from last night. Model flip-flopping at its best......

............ Which is why some of us use the Anomaly charts as they iron out those more extreme variables

[Djdazzle]

15 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

............ Which is why some of us use the Anomaly charts as they iron out those more extreme variables

Are these still looking supportive of a warm, settled spell?

I will say that I used to be sceptical of the anomaly charts, but nowadays I pay much more attention to them. Of course, they are not infallible, but don't suffer from the Prozac mood swings of the GFS etc.

[johnholmes]

If, note the word, I was a betting man I would bet the 6-10 day 500 mb anomaly outlook and the 8-14 NOAA against the 2x or 4x daily synoptic output every time through every month. They do not do very well at the northern hemisphere change over period; summer to winter and winter to summer, and the summer to autumn is made worse by the N Atlantic hurricane season. Otherwise I reckon, at 500 mb, they shows an accuracy of 70-75% for the 6-10 day period and 60-65% in the 10-14 day. Remember though this is at 500 mb, it does not always mean the same at the surface. They do predict pretty well major pattern changes, ridging to troughing etc and vice verca, also showing which air mass, tropical or polar is most lijkely and what sort of frequency in the period.

 

Good to discuss them in the northern summer rather than the heated and at times ill mannered posts during the winter. Forecasting at 500 mb has always been easier, or should I say less difficult than at the surface. Less mountain effects, less mositure to upset the major hydrstatic equation on which all models factor this in. The effect of sea temperatures is also less marked.

 

Give it a try but don't run before you learn to walk, not meant as a knock down, just take it slwoly. Do your own research, make lists that you can compare on your own pc.

It can be very interesting and also be a good way to improve your meteorological knowledge.

 

Sorry for the sermon, but I got converted almost 10 years ago.

[johnholmes]

30 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Are these still looking supportive of a warm, settled spell?

I will say that I used to be sceptical of the anomaly charts, but nowadays I pay much more attention to them. Of course, they are not infallible, but don't suffer from the Prozac mood swings of the GFS etc.

Certainly of a period dominated by ridging and more dry than wet for most parts of the UK. 

[mushymanrob]

26 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Are these still looking supportive of a warm, settled spell?

I will say that I used to be sceptical of the anomaly charts, but nowadays I pay much more attention to them. Of course, they are not infallible, but don't suffer from the Prozac mood swings of the GFS etc.

yes..... The NOAA charts i favour have over the last several days suggested a very plausible, smooth, regular evolution of high pressure to our near south slowly shifting to east of south.  but theres no lasting high slap bang on the uk, which is in line with the ops.

Warm? yes.... but not necessarily settled as such. there is some mobility.

[Daniel*]

Warm easterlies looking more likely than hot southerlies 

[shaky]

Icon continues the trend!!warm dry and sunny till the end of the run!!!

[Scorcher]

55 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Warm easterlies looking more likely than hot southerlies 

Looks more south of east to me for most of us- a very good direction for us in terms of cloud cover usually with a short sea track.

[Djdazzle]

ICON flirts with LP but at 180 another lobe of HP from the Azores tries to cut it off.

[mb018538]

UKMO is a bit disappointing at 144. Compare that to the ECM 00z run - pressure much lower, 500mb heights lower. Would just be warm instead of very warm. Looks like it would collapse soon after too.

[Sweatyman]

Just now, mb018538 said:

UKMO is a bit disappointing at 144. Compare that to the ECM 00z run - pressure much lower, 500mb heights lower. Would just be warm instead of very warm. Looks like it would collapse soon after too.

Well aint that just typical

[mb018538]

GFS isn’t that great either. Looks more like a Scandi high with easterlies setting In instead. Definite wobble tonight. Not a bad outlook, but not as good as other runs!

[Djdazzle]

UKMO 120 to 144 looks a bit suspect. That low in the Atlantic seems to develop too quickly.

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

5 hours ago, Mr Frost said:

Yes it is hilarious really

Just a standard run...with Northern Scotland hotter than many parts of France at times. 
 

20/05 to 27/05 below: 

I think there is more chance of seeing a dinosaur roaming the streets of the UK than this run becoming reality!

Those GFS charts are dream stuff though and something I would personally love to see verify.

You may aswell just say this run isnt going to materialise. Bear in mind Its the time of year Scotland is most likely to see its hottest temps, mid May to mid July is the most likely period for this while the sun is at its strongest and because daylight hours in Scotland are more longer than London or France! 

And I wouldnt slate the GFS for 'impossible' looking charts. GFS was the first to spot 25C uppers last June that everyone thought wouldnt happen. 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Regardless of the output we are seeing it's a very positive exeter update.. And is it just me that loves these Estly type set ups.. Very dry air and it becomes warmer with time. Stly are great for a quick plume, but also great for a quick breakdown.. I keep thinking of June 95..Estly airstream and Wall to wall sunshine and temps in the 80s..what a summer that was.. A scandy block is gonna keep the Atlantic quite.. But I'm aware everyone as there own weather agenda.. Could we be looking at prolonged and dry conditions with plenty of very warm conditions, as opposed to red hot plumes this year.. Pretty similar to 2018..continuing settled and very warm conditions but never really hot hot.. That would be something else if it repeated within a 2 year time frame... But perhaps its just an increasing possibility with each passing year.. But hopefully you storm chasers will get your just deserts at some stage this summer. 

Edited May 14, 2020 by Mattwolves

[Zak M]

Not bad from the GFS 12z...

   

[shaky]

Fantastic gfs 12z!!how anyone can complain about this 12z run up to 216 hours is beyond me!!its clearly an upgrade on previous runs!!12z ukmo a bit flatter at 120 hours but still a darn good run!!lets be honest ukmo hardly is the best run seems to change a lot between 120 and 144 hours recently!!

[Methuselah]

7 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Not bad from the GFS 12z...

   

It sure looks good to me, Zak: T850 between, say, 2 and 4C, plenty of sunshine and very little wind? What's not to like?

    

[Djdazzle]

The GFS 12z is a lovely run out to 240. Classic Azores / Scandi link up.

[Gowon]

3 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

It sure looks good to me, Zak: T850 between, say, 2 and 4C, plenty of sunshine and very little wind? What's not to like?

    

GFS is a great run.

Just a bit of rain in between and it'd be perfect.

[Leo97t]

GFS and GEM looking very good with a light E/SE. UKMO not so much but I am a little concerned about heights around Svalbard and the prospect of the low 850s over Eastern Europe being pulled over if the easterly is too strong

Woah the GFS puts the jet over Iceland (2018 levels) in its FI

Edited May 14, 2020 by Leo97t

[Mr Frost]

18 minutes ago, shaky said:

Fantastic gfs 12z!!how anyone can complain about this 12z run up to 216 hours is beyond me!!its clearly an upgrade on previous runs!!12z ukmo a bit flatter at 120 hours but still a darn good run!!lets be honest ukmo hardly is the best run seems to change a lot between 120 and 144 hours recently!!

Eh!? Upgrade on previous runs?

GFS 6Z

 

GFS 12Z

 

Cmon now mate - let’s at least try and look at the charts without being utterly biased. 

The charts above from the 12Z are still decent for sunshine/warmth but the window for hot temperatures next week seems to be shrinking by the hour at the moment. (25C +)

Edited May 14, 2020 by Mr Frost

[MKN]

Agree with you there mr frost this is a colder run. At the same time the reality will be them temps are 1-3c under cooked if that came off as often the case but even so not a heatwave just some pleasant warmish days particularly when theres no wind. We need warmer air to get into the area of high pressure that becomes established early on in the run