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Model Output Discussion - heading into April


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

The ECM looks great again this morning up to 168 hrs. Doesn't look as hot as it did last night but last night's run really was a best case scenario and an outlier.

Interestingly the BBC forecast for next week is actually warmer than it was yesterday evening.

I really don't think the GFS can be trusted at the moment outside the reliable time frame. Even the ensembles should be taken with a pinch of salt at the moment.

Edited by Scorcher
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Posted
  • Location: Laois, Ireland
  • Location: Laois, Ireland

First time poster. Been following this amazing blog for a few years now. 

Many posters comment on the tendency of GFS to be over progressive. I presume there is empirical evidence for this, given the huge amount of available data to weather modellers. Would love to know where to find this data. Does anyone know?

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Looking at the Gfs 0z operational longer term..I’ve seen worse..much worse!!!☀️

6FEBA48E-1C37-457A-8EDA-C9D55644279C.thumb.png.9794bcb81ec8cfe1d2ab2929e25ec262.pngBE0C40E5-4274-4F24-9789-402A3FD24E85.thumb.png.74e840bfbe5987121f7ba1999c98a425.pngBD80D476-7B75-45C7-B20D-3ED31ED48C0D.thumb.png.416ab8ab4807cf83688a7ae9f96f6ea9.pngD1651F21-DDE7-4A47-932A-E8A28852F15A.thumb.png.dab82f73927315f501bc6a4e2909afd4.png1305FC4A-DBA3-467F-870B-03E960A40BCF.thumb.png.31b32d496f23f706f2731dc61465f488.png

Edited by JON SNOW
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Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
7 hours ago, Daniel* said:

Because it doesn’t show what you want? 

No,because it was a outlier.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

For what it’s worth, I honestly believe we are going to see a return of low / mid 20’s c next week along with high pressure building in from the southwest with plenty of sunshine..the ECM 0z although it’s toned down the heat from yesterday’s 12z still looks preety good and who is to say a hot spell won’t happen, there will always be variability from run to run!!!!

E89C8DA2-EC11-43A1-A7C3-EC06A47635C0.thumb.png.fb86aabd0e99e0b8f3105e30cf76147d.png817E4CDA-DF47-4248-AB26-5A953A72DF0C.thumb.png.cbb7ee12f2fbd746cdd0a539f3ff2bd4.png3B24D689-1171-4468-9E4B-B6AB2F2E600B.thumb.png.76d2e807cbace37a556302eb64da7648.png9AAB8A77-85C5-475E-AC14-316092B16C8F.thumb.png.060d4f008d8d14f9fee1a6b1ff78a92f.pngD49720AC-7A96-400A-9518-DBC87F977F9E.thumb.png.7f3a6a35c562148ada127c9e556527d0.png

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Posted
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales, Hot & Sunny or Cold & Sunny!
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
22 minutes ago, joggs said:

No,because it was a outlier.

To be fair so have most of the runs we have seen recently - hot ones included.

I think it is all too easy to write off the runs we don’t like because it does not show what we want - every season is the same on this thread. 

We are heading for a warm up this weekend with the South and East seeing the best of the weather - start of the new week temperatures in the low 20’s and then two or three days approaching mid 20’s down there also I would imagine.

Decent weather further North and West from Tuesday with temperatures rising from the high teens to low 20‘s for the same timeframe as above.

That is as far as I would go to at the moment - too much uncertainty from later next week onwards.

ECM: Full run

anim_xqa5.gif
 

anim_fex2.gif
 

UKMO: 144h

CF058FC5-D6DA-43D6-854D-75526C5A1999.thumb.gif.ecaab9c4c726cbe0824330969f76deb8.gif
 

D913F6CD-9B79-4B11-A670-8D1821E003E7.thumb.gif.1d044c9e2e2e8c66f6598b2702c433c6.gif


GFS: Up to 192h

anim_yjk3.gif
 

I am also still sticking with my previous thoughts - #No plumes in May. 

So to summarise - definite shift on most models this morning away from the fantasy heat charts we have been seeing...but will that still be the case later or over the weekend? Who knows. 

Have a good day! 

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex

Still think that we will easily see the first 80F of the year next week.

Model convergence seems to be the key. ECM and GFS going for a middle ground. ECM not capitulated as I first feared.

Edited by Djdazzle
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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
1 hour ago, Weather vane said:

First time poster. Been following this amazing blog for a few years now. 

Many posters comment on the tendency of GFS to be over progressive. I presume there is empirical evidence for this, given the huge amount of available data to weather modellers. Would love to know where to find this data. Does anyone know?

I'm not sure this data exists, but our own experience on here tells us all we need to know.

Despite numerous upgrades the GFS is still way inferior to the ECM and UKMO. If we had free access to the wide range of charts on the ECM that GFS provides, I doubt we'd even look at the GFS.

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

ECM sitting better in the ensembles today - the 12z last night was exceptional. Still looking good for low to mid twenties into next week. Upper twenties? Not so sure about that today...

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I think the ECM this morning is probably a decent middle ground and I wouldn't even be surprised if it was a day or two too progressive. 

There seems to be a recurring trend in the models over the past few years which seems to go something like this when it comes to the attempted modelling of the reintroduction of the Atlantic flowing a blocked spell. 

1. Models show never ending blocking

2. 10-12 days out modelling become highly favorably showing hot spell, followed by thundery breakdown and then UK anchored under a trough

3. 8-9 days out occasional wobbles start to appear

4. 7-8 days out mass consensus of a change in pattern as a progressive stance is taken and Atlantic barrels in (where we are now).

5. 5-6 days progressive stance is backed away from giving 1-2 day extension of fine weather

6. <5 days fine detail refinement and BAU modeling. 

Off course I have zero evidence to back this up, will be interesting to see where we go later today and tomorrow..... 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
49 minutes ago, Alderc said:

I think the ECM this morning is probably a decent middle ground and I wouldn't even be surprised if it was a day or two too progressive. 

There seems to be a recurring trend in the models over the past few years which seems to go something like this when it comes to the attempted modelling of the reintroduction of the Atlantic flowing a blocked spell. 

1. Models show never ending blocking

2. 10-12 days out modelling become highly favorably showing hot spell, followed by thundery breakdown and then UK anchored under a trough

3. 8-9 days out occasional wobbles start to appear

4. 7-8 days out mass consensus of a change in pattern as a progressive stance is taken and Atlantic barrels in (where we are now).

5. 5-6 days progressive stance is backed away from giving 1-2 day extension of fine weather

6. <5 days fine detail refinement and BAU modeling. 

Off course I have zero evidence to back this up, will be interesting to see where we go later today and tomorrow..... 

 

 

Yes I agree with this. The other thing I'd add is that temperatures often end up being higher than was expected a couple of days out- locally you often get hot spots higher than anything shown by the modelling.

 

The other thing is, and this is just a casual observation and I have no proof for this, is that often when high pressure domination is predicted about a week out and it then downgrades to a more unsettled scenario, I've noticed that high pressure often does eventually establish itself a few days later than initially suggested.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

06Z looking okay for Sunday, with temperatures nudging above normal::oldgrin:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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Synotpically at about T140 GFS looks similar to the 00Z run however is over 5mb shallower with the low south of Greenland, let see what difference this males further down the line. 

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Its almost laughable, GFS 06Z reverts to the ECM 12Z flamethrower approach from last night. Model flip-flopping at its best......

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Not a bad end to not a bad week...30C? Maybe, in fohn-assisted locations; but anywho, high twenties look to be nailed on?:oldgood:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

 

Edited by General Cluster
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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
9 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Its almost laughable, GFS 06Z reverts to the ECM 12Z flamethrower approach from last night. Model flip-flopping at its best......

Sorry GFS, all is forgiven!

You couldn't make it up though!

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Posted
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales, Hot & Sunny or Cold & Sunny!
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
52 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Its almost laughable, GFS 06Z reverts to the ECM 12Z flamethrower approach from last night. Model flip-flopping at its best......

Yes it is hilarious really

Just a standard run...with Northern Scotland hotter than many parts of France at times. 
 

20/05 to 27/05 below: 

2CCF349C-00C7-4EDF-B36C-AABBDCD86DA7.thumb.png.d6b4f521dcd6e62bd6b85a18390f460e.png994CC277-A052-42AB-9CD8-7F5B05DE578F.thumb.png.83d2344cbe4a5e19148079f4f37b5a75.png67EF7941-0784-43E0-938B-77A2DDCCF430.thumb.png.184025394cf3c86bcba1b76fc161636b.png65AB3236-0EF8-4A46-957A-FB4CB2C0D5E8.thumb.png.4cf064c3bea8e31a88e1dd0cf1bbf5a6.pngB7D155A3-45E9-466E-BBED-1F024365FBC9.thumb.png.9216922a654caa6ce0437144fa87ee09.png1C925ADC-34F1-4320-B9D9-C1C9F899370E.thumb.png.bb2895013bc4ebc4dfb11871539e95ea.png58A2010E-C5D3-4766-9EFB-933A0555FF3D.thumb.png.2ee57f0c6fea7522548051315ee263dd.png792441F8-B4A0-4F8F-9EA5-1EB411AEF067.thumb.png.40984cbada6fe3b795e90280d60f77eb.png

I think there is more chance of seeing a dinosaur roaming the streets of the UK than this run becoming reality!

Those GFS charts are dream stuff though and something I would personally love to see verify.

Edited by Mr Frost
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Posted
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes & stormy winters. Facebook @ Lance's Lightning Shots
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight

So, is that twice in 24 hours that GFS has hit us with the same bullseye low pressure, only for it to disappear completely on the next respective run?

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

The 6z ensembles most definitely showing a marked warm up next week.. I didn't want to go beyond a week due to taking up a ridiculous amount of space on here.. But one thing that looks pretty certain is we are much warmer, and Scotland to looks to be in on some of this warmth, and I'm pretty sure after the last few cold days with even snow they will most welcome it.. I'm expecting a decent mean again from the 6z..still looks like a positive outlook if you ask me folks. Enjoy your days and stay safe. 

gens-0-0-144.png

gens-0-0-168.png

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gens-3-0-162.png

gens-4-0-168.png

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gens-7-0-168.png

gens-9-0-168.png

gens-10-0-180.png

gens-13-0-168.png

gens-14-0-168.png

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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

Latest ICON showing a build up of warmth again early next week over the British Isles. Nothing compared to our Greek and Turkish friends who are  likely to fry from this weekend onwards for some days with 35-40+ C forecast. The build up of the extreme heat, evident yesterday over North Africa (45C in places) with advection into the Eastern Med. Its going to be an interesting summer, when it officially arrives !

 C 

ICOOPEU06_120_2.png

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Y'all be surprised to learn that the GFS 06Z is somewhat on the warm side of the ensembles!:oldlaugh:

t850Bedfordshire.png    t2mBedfordshire.png

That said, I'd take the mean anywho...:oldgood:

 

Edited by General Cluster
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40 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Y'all be surprised to learn that the GFS 06Z is somewhat on the warm side of the ensembles!:oldlaugh:

t850Bedfordshire.png    t2mBedfordshire.png

That said, I'd take the mean anywho...:oldgood:

 

But the overall mean has shifted notably since this mornings run, only a couple of ensembles remainded above 5C @ 850pha post the 21st now most of them do. Positive steps. 

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