Model Output Discussion - heading into April

[Daniel*]

1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

Is 20-25c not warm for the middle chunk of May? looks good to me! The op run is an outlier at the end too.

Well it is warm but not extraordinary for here, I don’t think it’s wise to look beyond weekend. There’s a lot going on there: west, east and north, fine and pleasant warm conditions seem more likely from omega high, but nothing crazy warm.. I’m not sure how long it will last. SE more likely to remain drier and warmer for longer. 

[Guest]

45 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

There’s no real indication of a sustained warm spell or anything particularly warm on ECM 12z, there’s definitely a trend for more mobility in N Atlantic, it is currently blocked off, but not for long, NW U.K. I think your days could be numbered cloudier and wetter at first could be mild. However, I agree with @damianslaw there has been a suggestion for a while in GFS fairyland of a change in final third of May, to a more westerly driven picture. All quite normal I don’t see us entering the start of an protracted epic warm spell, which will take us through into summer, what is this obsession with 2018? Not sure people register how rare these summers are, the backdrop appears dissimilar away from SSTs. There’s nothing scientific about this but there’s only so much anticyclonic weather we can have.

2018 was exceptional, that’s the reason for the obsession. Most people want a repeat, also in world with climate change what was a once in 20/30 year summer not so long ago could happen every few years, you could even get the occasional one back to back. Would feel confident in saying we’ll get at least one summer similar to 2018/1995/1976 before 2025 maybe two. 

[Mike Poole]

A lot of long range modelling from me today, but I have promised to keep the CFS predictions for June under review, and here's the last 8 runs z500 anomaly averaged over the month:

So very promising for heat lovers, several of these show classic ridging from the Azores, breaking off over Scandi.  And the rest aren't bad either!  Put this with the GloSea5 results from earlier, points for me to a decent rest of May and whole of June.  After that, definitely much more uncertainty, we will see...

Edited May 11, 2020 by Mike Poole

[Djdazzle]

6 minutes ago, Alderc said:

2018 was exceptional, that’s the reason for the obsession. Most people want a repeat, also in world with climate change what was a once in 20/30 year summer not so long ago could happen every few years, you could even get the occasional one back to back. Would feel confident in saying we’ll get at least one summer similar to 2018/1995/1976 before 2025 maybe two. 

I think you have a point there Chris. It does seem much easier to achieve exceptional synoptics these days. It seems to reach 32C / 90F with ease during most summers now. Even a fairly average summer like 2019 saw the all-time record beaten and 90F reached in all three summer months.

Edited May 11, 2020 by Djdazzle

[Leo97t]

10 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

I think you have a point there Chris. It does seem much easier to achieve exceptional synoptics these days. It seems to reach 32C / 90F with ease during most summers now. Even a fairly average summer like 2019 saw the all-time record beaten and 90F reached in all three summer months.

2019 was a much better than average summer - especially in the south with it being the first summer since 1995 to have an average high of 25C or more in two months in London ( July was 25.5C and August 25.2C)

[damianslaw]

Sticking to the reliable timeframe, a few subtle changes from the models, a slightly less robust high pressure moving over the UK later this week, not least aided by a more prolonged cold N/NW flow which has the effect of delaying the strength of heights and at the same time allows lower heights to the west of the ridge to flex more muscle. Come the weekend, heights will be sinking over the UK, and the tilt and position allows a more atlantic feed to move into NW / west parts, whilst central, east and south parts stay under a blocked regime. 

Beyond the reliable heights may elongate west-east over south UK, allowing more of a westerly flow to envelop the north, conversely they may bulge in situ over the UK acting as a block and forcing low heights to develop to the SW, a split jet flow scenario, it will then be a case of how much energy is transferred into the jet and where.

I'm noticing alot recently how sudden short term developments in the 2-3 day window are developing and not being well forecast, we saw this happen end of April, when the forecasts were forecasting an atlantic breakdown from the SW to take hold in earnest after a change to unsettled conditions, but alas it fizzled out.. forecasts had to correct themselves very quickly.

 

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

1 hour ago, Daniel* said:

There’s no real indication of a sustained warm spell or anything particularly warm on ECM 12z, there’s definitely a trend for more mobility in N Atlantic, it is currently blocked off, but not for long, NW U.K. I think your days could be numbered cloudier and wetter at first could be mild. However, I agree with @damianslaw there has been a suggestion for a while in GFS fairyland of a change in final third of May, to a more westerly driven picture. All quite normal I don’t see us entering the start of an protracted epic warm spell, which will take us through into summer, what is this obsession with 2018? Not sure people register how rare these summers are, the backdrop appears dissimilar away from SSTs. There’s nothing scientific about this but there’s only so much anticyclonic weather we can have.

Im pretty sure in May 2018 there was no indication of a hot summer and people were laughing at others suggesting they wanted a dry hot summer. And other certain members were just intent on it being a poor summer because of the year ending in '8'. Not saying your wrong.

[Mr Frost]

10 minutes ago, Leo97t said:

2019 was a much better than average summer - especially in the south with it being the first summer since 1995 to have an average high of 25C or more in two months in London ( July was 25.5C and August 25.2C)

I am not so sure mate but I guess it all depends on ones location. 

Pretty sure most folk down South would say June 2019 was abysmal. (Lack of sunshine, average mean temperature and lots of rain)
 

June 2019:

Summer overall below: (Great up here for warmth/thunderstorm/convective weather)

Lastly a poor storm season for the South as well.

 

Will be remembered though for that now famous July day which delivered the hottest UK temperature on record.

Back to the models...let’s see what the pub run special delivers shortly. (Nowadays non pub special...)

[Mike Poole]

7 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

Im pretty sure in May 2018 there was no indication of a hot summer and people were laughing at others suggesting they wanted a dry hot summer. And other certain members were just intent on it being a poor summer because of the year ending in '8'. Not saying your wrong.

You should go back in the archives and read some of my posts in May 2018, mate!  No indication, my trousers!

Edited May 11, 2020 by Mike Poole

[Zak M]

1 minute ago, Mr Frost said:

I am not so sure mate but I guess it all depends on ones location. 

Pretty sure most folk down South would say June 2019 was abysmal. (Lack of sunshine, average mean temperature and lots of rain)
 

June 2019:

Summer overall below: (Great up here for warmth/thunderstorm/convective weather)

Lastly a poor storm season for the South as well.

 

Will be remembered though for that now famous July day which delivered the hottest UK temperature on record.

Back to the models...let’s see what the pub run special delivers shortly. (Nowadays non pub special...)

Can I get a link to where the Met Office lightning statistics are please? Cheers.

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

You should go back in the archives and read some of my posts in May 2018, mate!  No indication, my trousers!

Mike, I had a flick through to May 2018, to see how people were viewing the potential that month

You made a CFS post mid month that showed a lot of high pressure. How does it compare to this year's CFS chart? (Page 29 on link below.)

Sorry I don't know how to remove the box below..

I would love a repeat of 2018.

Looking good for next week with high pressure but no plume. Perfect for outdoors during lockdown.

 

 

Edited May 11, 2020 by BlueSkies_do_I_see
Posted wrong link

[Allseasons-Si]

Evening all,sorry i have not been on at all today as i had a ding dong with the other half,things are getting a bit agitated around the house with me being stuck at home and not working,so i stormed out this morning and went for a drive to somewhere quiet to cool my head

anyway back to the models and it looks like everyone has covered all angles on the models today,for me personally the Atlantic(at this moment in time) does not look like barraging through the UK in the next ten days so it looks like a dry week coming with temps gradually recovering to normal or even warm the further SE you are

the ECM op IS an outlier so thank god for that as the mean looks good out to day ten,the gefs mean not so good but still OK,the ECM mean has been good for a few days now so at the minute i would favor the ECM

now the cpc up to day 14 is still steadfast in terms of keeping the UK nice and settled and perhaps warm  too

Here's to the Atlantic because the weather looks "ABSOLUTELY FABULOUS"

hold out for another few weeks guys and hopefully systems will be a go go back to reality we hope

@northwestsnow what a great post and others too,great community,great atmosphere 

take care guys,be safe and keep calm.

 

Edited May 11, 2020 by Allseasons-si

[Mike Poole]

11 minutes ago, BlueSkies_do_I_see said:

Mike, I had a flick through to May 2018.

You made a CFS post mid month. Page 29 on link below.

Sorry I don't know how to remove the box below..

I would love a repeat of 2018.

Looking good for next week with high pressure but no plume. Perfect for outdoors during lockdown.

 

 

Aye, good time to look at memory lane, but I had a lot more to say on that subject, the 2018 heat wave, than just one post, but you'd have to look through pages of MOD to uncover them!  But that is what is, the past, so who'd make predictions on this summer, based on the models?  I'm going for a warm to hot rest of May, largely dry, continuing into and through June, maybe with one to two thundery plumes coming into play in the second half of the month, then into July, and becoming more unsettled gradually, descending into the usual August, increasing signal from La Niña the reasoning here.  Just hope we can avoid the rain by going into a pub by then!

[Allseasons-Si]

The gfs looks peach to me so far up to 216

steady as she goes.

 

 

[Allseasons-Si]

And by day ten +12's 850's knocking on the door in the far south,it's a far cry from the 12z

C'mon Spain,give us that heat pump.

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

7 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

And by day ten +12's 850's knocking on the door in the far south,it's a far cry from the 12z

C'mon Spain,give us that heat pump.

Looks very warm/settled from weekend onwards. Just about hit 20oC here on Saturday and that was comfortable enough for me. Anything higher is a bonus. A few evening storms wouldn't go miss either lol. Getting more and more into reliable time frame now so looking good. We'll done 18z.

[Allseasons-Si]

*No comment*

well just one,Stunning

[snowray]

Looking rather hot to me there on the 18z.

 

Some place could hit the big 30c!

Edited May 11, 2020 by snowray

[Convective]

4 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

*No comment*

well just one,Stunning

What follows is absolute storm porn!

[Allseasons-Si]

5 minutes ago, Convective said:

What follows is absolute storm porn!

Careful!

a bit early for a climax yet

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

18z is hotting up. Red crayon drooling all over the charts!!  May this be a regular sighting for the next four months.

Hopefully three  days and a

[Allseasons-Si]

I would just like to run the gfs 18z here because things are hotting up with maybe some fireworks later on in FL

can these summer charts verify where as they don't in winter,C'mon

 

[Zak M]

I have no words.

Holy...

         

[Methuselah]

Well peeps, isn't the GFS 00Z a bit of a peach -- once this week's cack's out of the way?

    

    

    

    

    

But, please note that for those of a more delicate nature, things may not be absolutely perfect at T+384. So don't have nightmares!

    

Weeds await!

 

[Guest]

'And the YTD model output of the year award goes to GFS 18Z & 00Z' - A stunning run from the last two editions of the GFS for early May. High pressure pretty much all the way with temps slowly rising first into the 20's then towards the high 20's. Subtle differences though between GFS and the UKMO & ECM, GFS buckles the jet in the mid- Atlantic favourably for the UK enabling us to be able to tap into warmth from the south, this looks more doubtful on the others. This is key in enabling temps to get beyond the low - mid 20's, also has the potential to bring in the cut-off and associated Ts activity down the line.

Hard to see anything other than one of the driest & sunniest April/ay combos in a long time when looking at current output.