Model Output Discussion - heading into April

[SLEETY]

Gfs following the ecm run of a day ago with cold weather winning out with persistent winds from the NE and intense blocking over Greenland ,never in the winters months ,but hey ho

[Methuselah]

And now the good news: the 12Z operational is very much on the cold side of the ensembles!

    

It's so far down, it's almost on its own!

[Djdazzle]

Well, whatever happens, I think there is more chance of a plume this month than there is of that GFS run coming off. Everything that could go wrong with it, does go wrong with it. Just seems to make its best effort to churn out rubbish!

Edited May 9, 2020 by Djdazzle

[Scorcher]

12 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Gfs following the ecm run of a day ago with cold weather winning out with persistent winds from the NE and intense blocking over Greenland ,never in the winters months ,but hey ho

The UKMO is very different, however. Not sure what the GFS is smoking tonight- the OP is a real outlier.

[Mike Poole]

Ignore the GFS, the GEM has sussed it:

 
 

[Mr Frost]

23 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

The UKMO is very different, however. Not sure what the GFS is smoking tonight- the OP is a real outlier.

UKMO isn’t a great run either though plus the GFS 6Z run earlier showing the plume was also a big outlier. 

All I can see across the charts/models currently is below average/average then trending to slightly above. 

The above summary is fine for May - plenty of dry weather and feeling pleasant enough in the sunshine from next week. (midweek/end of week)

ECM currently up to +144:

No plume coming on this run either. 

Edited May 9, 2020 by Mr Frost

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, Mr Frost said:

UKMO isn’t a great run either though plus the GFS 6Z run earlier showing the plume was also a big outlier. 

All I can see across the charts/models currently is below average/average then trending to slightly above. 

The above summary is fine for May - plenty of dry weather and feeling pleasant enough in the sunshine from next week. (midweek/end of week)

ECM currently up to +144:

No plume coming on this run either. 

ECM following GEM at T144:

 

So if that goes, then no plume but a hot UK high beckons, let’s see how the run progresses?
 

 

[stodge]

4 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

The UKMO is very different, however. Not sure what the GFS is smoking tonight- the OP is a real outlier.

Perhaps - what I love is the LP which develops over Southern Sweden, moves NE to northern Finland and then deepens explosively to be sub 970MB at T+72:

That would be a decent storm in mid winter - it then moves west across the top of Scandinavia toward NE Greenland. 

A second LP which formed over eastern Europe deepens over NW Russia by T+96:

It also heads west but the HP coming down from the Pole through Iceland to the NW of the British Isles stops that and it steers SW down the coast of Norway:

The LP fills up as it approaches Shetland.

I love odd synoptics and I've never seen that - I've added the jet stream chart because it picks up a noticeable jet streak over Scandinavia and then west toward the Pole. The jet then turns SW before decaying.

[Djdazzle]

8 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

UKMO isn’t a great run either though plus the GFS 6Z run earlier showing the plume was also a big outlier. 

All I can see across the charts/models currently is below average/average then trending to slightly above. 

The above summary is fine for May - plenty of dry weather and feeling pleasant enough in the sunshine from next week. (midweek/end of week)

ECM currently up to +144:

No plume coming on this run either. 

There are 22 days left in May. Reliable output is 5-6 days at a push. According to the models last week, there would be  raging northern blocking by now - it didn’t happen! Not saying a plume will happen, but it is certainly not off the agenda.

Edited May 9, 2020 by Djdazzle

[Scorcher]

1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:

There are 22 days left in May. Reliable output is 5-6 days at a push. According to the models last week, there would be  raging northern blocking by now - it didn’t happen! Not saying it will happen, but it is certainly not off the agenda.

Very true. Of course no plume will be showing yet within the reliable time frame. However I think a gradual warm up does look likely and has more ensemble support than a continuation of the unseasonably cool conditions.

Who knows what could develop after that.

[Djdazzle]

ECM looking good at 216. Classic summer pattern. Certainly not looking “average at best”. Gives the GFS the big V sign!

Edited May 9, 2020 by Djdazzle

[Zak M]

ECM at +216

[mb018538]

ECM and GEM are crackerjack runs this evening. Likely to be top end on the ensembles, but there’s still a chance that in another weeks time we could be looking at more warmth. One to keep tabs on.

[Zak M]

The ECM at +240 finishes off with excellence!

[Djdazzle]

2 minutes ago, Zak M said:

The ECM at +240 finishes off with excellence!

Indeed, and I suspect a plume of sorts could develop from there as the HP migrates east.

[Allseasons-Si]

WOW ECM blow me

i'd of loved to of seen the day eleven chart.

[mb018538]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

WOW ECM blow me

i'd of loved to of seen the day eleven chart.

It’s time time of year when you want to see that Icelandic/Greenland/NE Canada low set up. We had it all winter which ruined any chances of cold weather....but it can be our friend in the summer!

[Mike Poole]

Just now, Zak M said:

The ECM at +240 finishes off with excellence!

Yes, this illustrates the classic summer pattern of a ridge from the Azores, break off high, and next in the wings, jet stream north.  So the question is why at this stage we should believe the ECM and GEM over the GFS?  Well it is because their evolution is line with what we might expect from longer term drivers such as SSTs and longer term modelling.  If we are going to get to what is confidently touted by CFS for June, then the change illustrated by these two models tonight will kind of have to happen at some point.  Why not now? 

Im eagerly awaiting the Jun-Aug GloSea5 charts which should come out within the next day or two.  I’m expecting them to be promising for a hot summer, I will post an analysis here the moment they come out, there’s not much else to do at the moment !

[MATTWOLVES 3]

I can't understand all this talk of plums... Plumes I mean.. ECM is a good run with High Pressure largely in Control out to day 10, by that stage its warming up nicely... Plenty of time for a load of plums.. Or grapes come to mention it. Tonights gif is very much a suck it and see kind of picture.. We maybe getting heat this summer, but we certainly wony be getting beaches that crowded.. Enjoy your evenings all. 

[Mr Frost]

I will still go for below average...average then slightly above average out to 15/05 at the very least. (Temperatures - pleasant enough from midweek/end of next week)

Still no plume as I said previously showing on the current models/charts - might develop later or it might not. (I think not - those Spanish plums I posted are still more realistic than a plume this month)

Lets take off our heat tinted spectacles for the time being...surely we can’t just latch onto any run that shows a bit of heat and ignore the rest? It’s not like we do that in Winter when searching for cold. 

Hopefully the latest ECM run is not a massive outlier!

 

We shall see what happens over the rest of this month - good discussion though and very enjoyable. 

Cheers.

Edited May 9, 2020 by Mr Frost

[Daniel*]

34 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

There are 22 days left in May. Reliable output is 5-6 days at a push. According to the models last week, there would be  raging northern blocking by now - it didn’t happen! Not saying a plume will happen, but it is certainly not off the agenda.

May not be as great in amplitude but the blocking is certainly there. 
 

 

Even ECM a warm run very out of kilter on recent runs has considerable blocking over the pole that looks locked in, GFS manages to find it a route to Greenland. Very challenging to NWP.

[SMU]

ECM is much better & warmer as the ridge topples > a southerly plume looks favourite day 11 & 12 on that run !

[carinthian]

27 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes, this illustrates the classic summer pattern of a ridge from the Azores, break off high, and next in the wings, jet stream north.  So the question is why at this stage we should believe the ECM and GEM over the GFS?  Well it is because their evolution is line with what we might expect from longer term drivers such as SSTs and longer term modelling.  If we are going to get to what is confidently touted by CFS for June, then the change illustrated by these two models tonight will kind of have to happen at some point.  Why not now? 

Im eagerly awaiting the Jun-Aug GloSea5 charts which should come out within the next day or two.  I’m expecting them to be promising for a hot summer, I will post an analysis here the moment they come out, there’s not much else to do at the moment !

Yes Mike, classic Azores high ridging over blighty on latest ECM run.. Hope it comes off for you guys , you deserve it. Sunny April, sunny May and who knows what to follow? Maybe a good time to get the wonderful beer gardens open up and down the country and lift the spirits.

C

[Mike Poole]

3 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Yes Mike, classic Azores high ridging over blighty on latest ECM run.. Hope it comes off for you guys , you deserve it. Sunny April, sunny May and who knows what to follow? Maybe a good time to get the wonderful beer gardens open up and down the country and lift the spirits.

C

Hi @carinthian Government probably going to rain on that parade.   I’ve been drinking beer in the sun in my flats’ car park, that has had to do unfortunately.  But agree, summer weather prospects for UK looking decent.  Stay safe!

[Daniel*]

Interesting to note the nights are cool on ECM 12z overall would be average. It’s not really warm high pressure till end as 850s rise from south.

Edited May 9, 2020 by Daniel*