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Model Output Discussion - heading into April


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
9 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Don't you just love the pub run?  Even more, now they are all closed.  T240:

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If this heat pump comes off i will deliver you a beer

 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

I have to admit this would feel preety cold, especially following the warm / very warm weather during the next few days!

1FB16D78-A04E-4B44-A1E2-36B12E996F09.thumb.jpeg.a7d7e4d9f8f347290e261c9a54e84bf1.jpegBA241113-CC28-4C3A-91A7-27F8FA996FFA.thumb.gif.d68416f57ad1338a7ad04b48b9447674.gif

 

Edited by JON SNOW
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

The ECM 00Z is not as good this morning- but the handling of that low to the north of Scandinavia looks odd to me. It starts moving southwestwards at T+192- maybe someone can enlighten me on what is going on there?

 

Still a lot of very good weather on offer next week with plenty of sunshine. Looks like remaining cool until at least midweek though.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
38 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

The ECM 00Z is not as good this morning- but the handling of that low to the north of Scandinavia looks odd to me. It starts moving southwestwards at T+192- maybe someone can enlighten me on what is going on there?

 

here is nothing in particular going on just movement of the tpv lobe driven by the general NH circulation and energy distribution

ecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-z500_anom-9414400.thumb.png.d747f26fea8a011e2d392f961639bc02.png162.thumb.png.185ecd4130a94224358237c4d2b1cc58.png

ecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-z500_anom-9500800.thumb.png.0003ffcbf0558da240889dbfe0c208d1.png192.thumb.png.d4170f7942b1010b3bd4d4e167e7c12b.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

I'll take this from the GFS; better than nothing! :oldlaugh:

354475980_h500slp(1).thumb.png.26d461f6e1c3d4f1a6c0a651734c1e0d.png   1085734092_h500slp(2).thumb.png.0478b720d9cb2a218cbff3e89d68b9a0.png

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

If that European HP-cell is part of a trend, and not a one-off, I'll take it; it keeps us firmly on the warm side of the 0C isotherm!:oldgood:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

No heat on here, so those earlier charts (suggesting heat next weekend) were just eye candy?

This suggests ridging to our near west, a very slack upper airflow but possibly northwest over the north, maybe Easterly surface?

After the expected Arctic blast this weekend conditions only return to something more average very slowly as next week progresses. But itll be cold, below average, dry, often rather cloudy especially in the East as we retain a draft from the northeasterly quardant.

 

610day.03.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex

ECM and GFS again very different from yesterday when they were showing a big warm up towards the end of next week.

Just goes to show that anything beyond 120 cannot be trusted. That said, the ECM mean looks more favourable.

Others have said that the current pattern support a warm May, so as usual there is confusion because the Met Office don't agree.

Have to say that over the years, the experts / well informed people on here have been more successful than the pros!

Still confident of a big warm up around mid month. The only thing looking unlikely is an Atlantic onslaught. Hopefully we can take advantage of the PV being shredded, avoid northern blocking and tap into that heat building to our south.

A hot and dry summer would be perfect payback for the horrid wet autumn and winter that we have endured.

Edited by Djdazzle
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Indeed. A mid-month 'big warm-up' looks about right, as the GEFS T850 mean hovers around (or just under) 5C. So no heat, in the vernacular sense, but plenty of days with temps well up to average and little sign of an imminent washout? Things could be looking a whole lot worse...?:oldgood:

t850Bedfordshire.png    t2mBedfordshire.png

So, just as one cannot rely on any heat developing, neither can one rule it out: uncertainty is a double-edged sword...

 

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Ive seen the tea leaves and it's High Pressure in Control.. I'm not so sure about the pros insistence of more unsettled end of May... How can anyone have even a slight bit of confidence in what weather pattern we will be under in 3 weeks time! In the short term it's largely fine and warm through til Sunday, it then turns colder around this point and generally continues to mid next week.. Yes Pressure is building but not in the most favourable positions for real warmth. It could infact remain relatively cool and quite overcast towards the NE/E.. Shelter in the West fairing much better.. Beyond that could High Pressure assert itself favourably to bring a more SE element to our air! The ensemble I'm posting highlights the possibility nicely, and that would be a very nice outcome. Unfortunately it's only one of several outcomes, so we will just have to wait and see to how this plays out folks.. Do stay safe. 

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

EC clusters look like keeping things dry for much of next week - ridge dominated scenario by the end of next week. Might be reasonably warm again by then.

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020050700_192.

Further out, 60/40 split in favour of continuing mostly settled. Trough anomalies are always further west, so odds stacked in favour of above average temperatures, unless a disturbance can develop to our east (just about within the range of cluster 3). Heatwave opportunities exist - cluster 1/2 could see ridge east/trough west combos pulling up southerly air, or cluster 3 might allow a "back door" heatwave if an Iberian trough develops with a SE flow to the UK - but this requires a lot more detail than presently available.

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020050700_300.

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Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Shepton Mallet Somerset
6 hours ago, General Cluster said:

Yes, karl; but after that early-week filth (I'm on the farm on Monday and Tuesday!:shok:) better things are on their way!:yahoo::clapping:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

And there's nae much of that tPV left!8)

Edit: I'd take the GEFS 00Z mean alright!:oldgood:

t850Bedfordshire.png    t2mBedfordshire.png

Seeing as how I'm going back to work next week, I'll have some of that  Pete.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

I'm nae complaining: h500slp.pngh850t850eu.png:oldgood:

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

Things definitely do look a bit more settled after the cold plunge, the GFS thinks...

918716994_h500slp(3).thumb.png.63e8bcd56085bb46c76c75d905ca5868.png   1088464808_h500slp(4).thumb.png.9198394ff5fb1e34eb52ddac56af0935.png   1020150218_h500slp(5).thumb.png.21de143560bcedcdf022606c3d9f347c.png   705132117_h500slp(6).thumb.png.d6644df5f306fb43f76db902a1b62bdf.png   1799205437_h850t850eu(1).thumb.png.b41f8c883bcdd94a175c419aa9788ac4.png

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

The GFS has only gone and done it!

Beauty!!

1676258766_h500slp(7).thumb.png.103b2f11598f8aa9d20c6b6aef2784f4.png   1729363271_h500slp(8).thumb.png.21357285341fb6e4cd3a9d983358147d.png

And yes, of course I know about the time frame... :oldgood:

Edited by Zak M
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

It has indeed, Zak...Come to Daddy?

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Just what the doctor ordered!:yahoo:

A stonker! h500slp.pngh850t850eu.png

Edited by General Cluster
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Some more good news...the 12Z operational run is not an outlier; it's quite well aligned with both the control and mean::oldgood:

t850Bedfordshire.png    t2mBedfordshire.png

It's on the up!:yahoo:

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

Good evening all, there is certainly no need to wait for long after the cold plunge, as both the ECM and the GFS suggest some settled and perhaps warm weather on day 7 onwards! After all, it is May! Take care all.

ECM1-192.thumb.gif.a466590066461191b04109527af8ea36.gif   ECM1-216.thumb.gif.46ac955d4f95eba65049c1e9b70ab4e0.gif   giphy.thumb.gif.583db0a7e3f6f3f118ebdc5e2e50329f.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
37 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Some more good news...the 12Z operational run is not an outlier; it's quite well aligned with both the control and mean::oldgood:

t850Bedfordshire.png    t2mBedfordshire.png

It's on the up!:yahoo:

Quite a number of warm (5-10c) runs on there. Outlook doesn’t look bad at all after the chilly weather skidaddles early next week. Should be back to mid-upper teens later in the week.

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

It's a good ECM run tonight, we have that colder air poised for the latter half of the weekend, then it's a cooler early next week, before things again warm up later... Pretty close to some really warm conditions to... Should be back up to 20c either way. So I've got the barbi for Friday, it gets put away for Sunday and exchanged for me ice breaker. But by the end of next week I should be raving... 

Ps... My god this must be me long lost Brother...

ECM1-120.gif

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ECM1-216.gif

ECM0-120.gif

ECM0-144.gif

ECM0-168.gif

ECM0-216.gif

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Edited by Mattwolves
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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

Well after this upcoming cold snap early next week, hopefully we will see the last of any frosts, then things should start to warm up again nicely as we head towards the following weekend.

I'm liking the look of the GFS in FI, has us down for our first proper mini heatwave, long way off but something to keep an eye on.

 

ECM1-240.gif

ECM0-240.gif

graphe_ens3.png

gfs-0-372.png

gfs-1-372.png

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