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Model Output Discussion - heading into April


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL

Didn’t think I would be seeing -10 850hpa in Scotland in May  2DC0DFE0-9D13-44F2-98E1-E59AC55DBF8D.thumb.png.534e560a7185e1d231451eda94b84c74.png

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
13 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Didn’t think I would be seeing -10 850hpa in Scotland in May  2DC0DFE0-9D13-44F2-98E1-E59AC55DBF8D.thumb.png.534e560a7185e1d231451eda94b84c74.png

The way the models are trending (eastwards)...you won’t be seeing -10 T850 hPA until next winter..possibly!

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
7 minutes ago, JON SNOW said:

The way the models are trending (eastwards)...you won’t be seeing -10 T850 hPA until next winter..possibly!

I haven’t been looking at the other models been focusing on wrf nmm / eu it has been performing well as it usually does with thunderstorms etc that is the furthest out it goes but has been showing same past few runs so will be interesting

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Posted
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales, Hot & Sunny or Cold & Sunny!
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland

Afternoon all

As @Kirkcaldy Weather mentioned above -10 850hpa in the second week of May is quite noteworthy...especially after a Winter of crud! (Snow/cold lover point of view)

ECM is very chilly indeed - couple of frosty nights.

4B6B97F3-5979-4B62-9708-46478431AE73.thumb.png.8c5a2f1433d058f4b0ba1f4565baf017.png4E6F820F-4774-4EE1-8AC7-54F913126187.thumb.png.e5b6b5856e2d25727c948c57aefbb215.png5FE45DCE-5BD4-4ECA-824B-C1B1217EE495.thumb.png.91d33418d3a023567708e45da3c0da42.pngA803EE3C-9B51-4633-9079-76E0D44F9BAA.thumb.png.31fb95d96f2da206765cef1619a2c0ce.png
 

It does look as though a few snow showers/flurries could pop up in Shetland, Orkney and the very far Northern parts of mainland Scotland. (Elsewhere...who knows!)

Poor folk in Aviemore for example will be enjoying glorious sunshine and temperatures in the high teens/20C tomorrow...then cloud and 5C on Sunday!

Current weather is lovely for many of us but personally I am looking forward to some proper heat and thunderstorms! Roll on Summer! 

Edited by Mr Frost
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Not very nice that the 06Z operational run is among the warmer ensemble members:

t850Bedfordshire.png    t2mBedfordshire.png

I guess that's my CET guess (12.9C) well-and-truly defenestrated, then!:oldlaugh:

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
4 hours ago, Mattwolves said:

That's a good point you make, I was quite surprised how confident the beeb was in forecasting significantly colder Conditions at that range, they are normally the first to play it down at any time of winter let alone spring. I think the 6z mean continues with that theme of moving the coldest conditions East... So if you wanna see a true Arctic blast perhaps head for scandy.. High Pressure looks set to build for next week too.. In the short term some rain in the SW today, but hopefully better for you tomorrow, elsewhere plenty of sun, but a keen wind... Enjoy.. Stay safe. 

gens-21-1-96.png

gens-21-1-120.png

gens-21-1-144.png

gens-21-1-168.png

Surprised the bbc been so keen on this Northerly,we all know how fickle Northerlies are especially the timeframe when they started banging on about it.Now fast forward to today and the ukmo they use for their forecasts shows it toppling in 24 hours .

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

The ECM is certainly trying to shift the plunge to the east now!

ECM1-144.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
30 minutes ago, JON SNOW said:

Looking at the GEFS 12z mean, the much discussed Northerly is now preety much as dead as monty pythons parrot..the eastward correction continues!

BBC8FB00-47FB-4AD7-A67B-B91359D055F4.thumb.png.4fd940fdd4d0525702a9a3fb40fea3af.pngE64B27B6-0BF1-4D9F-9A94-838352C86D2D.thumb.png.0ca7d0f421c1c4b815eedf2e311cd1f0.png9A6BB34B-195F-400E-BA43-0CBC4DE09D32.thumb.jpeg.c0c25c0e58768267beae2ebcabae86c7.jpeg

 

I was going to suggest that it was asleep, but the ensembles agree that it has indeed expired; it has ceased to be.:oldlaugh:

t850Bedfordshire.png    t2mBedfordshire.png

That said, next Monday and Tuesday still look a tad nippy!

Edited by General Cluster
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Posted
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales, Hot & Sunny or Cold & Sunny!
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland

Sunday and Monday looks raw for many of us! Only really the areas mentioned in my previous post look at risk of wintry/snow flurries/showers. (North East of Scotland added to that)

Met Office summary for Highlands & Eilean Siar:

Outlook for Thursday to Saturday:

More cloud around Thursday and Friday but still some sunshine along with scattered showers, heavy in east, warm. Rain clearing south through Saturday then sunnier, colder, wintry showers far north.
 

ECM: (Sunday)

5A38FE86-B7C1-4308-8E97-7EB22835CE81.thumb.png.d040dfa681f7dd990d97a0d62d65801c.pngA75842E4-DFF5-46B4-91D9-751408420B87.thumb.png.a487b5aae1f132b6e458c2c2e726132c.png67887FF6-6934-49A6-B8EA-04A3C409C538.thumb.png.07547db947ddaee6a08659aa3ecc4eb3.png


Monday still on the chilly side.

56BFD32D-E79B-48DA-B933-0936F830EB64.thumb.png.4498894de1ae9e89266351f4deb7e418.png1E2670A3-6801-46B6-91E8-659822069652.thumb.png.917f10cca75fd963729d62c34ec2a3d9.png
 

Tuesday remains chilly:

53B9DD3A-AA28-4874-9F13-345B34DB6ADC.thumb.png.a6a7094731acc2b0a02111454e0893a3.png48BC43D6-CB70-45EB-86AB-6A7AFBC288D5.thumb.png.2213d8137422afcb350fac19049861c3.png
 

Warm up incoming after that.

Edited by Mr Frost
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Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL

@Mr Frost latest run has -10 850 hpa line reaching here, not sure of the last time that happened in May. D4DAEF8B-4686-4B67-B3CA-9596E9550F02.thumb.png.7b7d3bf39a2270e536f4ba36eca4b2fc.png

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Posted
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Freezing fog, frost, snow, sunshine.
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl
4 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

Sunday and Monday looks raw for many of us! Only really the areas mentioned in my previous post look at risk of wintry/snow flurries/showers. (North East of Scotland added to that)

Met Office summary for Highlands & Eilean Siar:

Outlook for Thursday to Saturday:

More cloud around Thursday and Friday but still some sunshine along with scattered showers, heavy in east, warm. Rain clearing south through Saturday then sunnier, colder, wintry showers far north.

Met Office even going for snow down to sea level across Highland and the NE for a time on Sunday morning with temperatures just above freezing and a feels-like temperature of -4. Then dry with occasional sunny spells and 10C by Monday.

GFS seems to corroborate this: 

h850t850eu.pngukmintemp.png

A very odd and brief return to winter on the cards! 

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

ECM is lovely this evening. Cold air doesn’t hang around too long, and turning much warmer again at day 9/10. Yes please!

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

As others have said the ECM is lovely bar a short lived colder blip... Could be a frost or to in places... Beyond that High Pressure build in nicely and we see a gradual warming, perhaps becoming very warm by day 10...summer is coming... Are you ready.... I am... ☀️

ECM1-120.gif

ECM1-144.gif

ECM1-168.gif

ECM1-192.gif

ECM1-216.gif

ECM0-240.gif

4dC1WMy.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Also - not for the first time, the models look to have overplayed the extent of northern blocking. There is still some high pressure over the pole, but nowhere near as extensive as predicted, and the location has changed too. All for the better in our locale too.

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
2 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Strange seeing some talk of northerlies vanishing when they’re still very much in the modelling. Sun-Mon has always been peak hit time, before it eases off and we’re left under high pressure with the air slowly warming up.

Adjustment-wise, true that the slackening off has been sped up a bit. Trouble is, that means very light winds while the chilly airmass is still in place  - a recipe for a widespread ground frost even in May.


Longer-term, the expected movement toward a warmer pattern for the UK continues to feature in the modelling, though GFS is throwing in all sorts of peculiar spammers as usual. Somehow it’s sequences tend not to look as ‘real’ as what you see in ECM or GEM.

We are not saying that they are vanishing bud but we are saying that they are getting watered down on every run just like in winter so nothings changed,the difference is that we don't want  it to happen now and i hope that it gets watered down further nearer the time

anyhoo's has anyone seen this mornings CFS run(06z),check this out...

cfsnh-0-960.thumb.png.97f350d758eaf26f73efd39fea417c4f.pngcfsnh-2-960.thumb.png.24cfc3ecfecf12b0c91eae360b23084a.png

that would be a nice B'day present☀️?️

 

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire
9 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

We are not saying that they are vanishing bud but we are saying that they are getting watered down on every run just like in winter so nothings changed,the difference is that we don't want  it to happen now and i hope that it gets watered down further nearer the time

anyhoo's has anyone seen this mornings CFS run(06z),check this out...

cfsnh-0-960.thumb.png.97f350d758eaf26f73efd39fea417c4f.pngcfsnh-2-960.thumb.png.24cfc3ecfecf12b0c91eae360b23084a.png

that would be a nice B'day present☀️?️

 

Chances of verifying = 100% 

Edited by Zak M
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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

The ecm mean is a glancing blow for the NE of the UK at 120,then the pressure builds back in afterwards with temps recovering.

EDM1-120.thumb.gif.6511914c7371754202d7a644f018b717.gifEDM0-120.thumb.gif.e1a84cffb84b2914d16b8bd8a31207af.gif

EDM1-144.thumb.gif.841a08ea5a57bbee2c7e4d8cf935bd81.gifEDM1-168.thumb.gif.73086eb6d27332b79fce2c65835073c8.gifEDM1-192.thumb.gif.1de17bab376d9039093f2e1fbd84e817.gifEDM1-216.thumb.gif.e9910fe75ab9deab707555209458166d.gifEDM1-240.thumb.gif.739b8c6a2b623fdb67835bbf5f112048.gif 

graphe_ens3_mdp7.thumb.png.94b002b8607635c7a0ec1b04a2ece7d0.png

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
2 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Chance of verifying = 100% 

Just posting what the models are showing

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