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Model Output Discussion - heading into April


Paul

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1 hour ago, carinthian said:

Mid-night last night our forecast 850mb temp was 2c. The village height is 1650m asl. Snow settled for a short time. Min air temp was 1c. At the same time -2c air temp was being recorded at 2200m on surrounding peaks. I think convective showers at this time of year can produce snow down to fairly low levels and not necessary of  Arctic origin. Looking at the longer term charts at day 10 , all gets a bit messy over Euroland. Austria could easily get into a warm sector as the UK  goes into May chill.  All interesting weather watching.

C

Interesting !

ECM gets the polar front past you - with -5c locally indicating you could see some snow!

46C884F7-26EB-44E0-BE84-BEC3519BA803.thumb.png.3227321262a2bc71a4a4fad33d5f54e8.png

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The pointless plunge is back, ecm has temps probably close to 25c here on the south coast on Saturday, maybe a max of just 7-9c on Sunday. A staggering drop really as those 850s drop from +9 to -6c in just 24hrs. GFS 12z ops less aggressive however a number of the ensembles also have this brutal mid-summer to mid-winter drop. 

Given how these things usually play out at this range you’d fancy a slightly modified version of it as it really is pretty extreme.  

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
1 hour ago, shaky said:

Where is that band of rain gfs kept forecasting for today across a large swathe of wales midlands and east anglia!!its virtually non existent!!thats gfs being incorrect at just 24 hours!!shocking if you ask me!!yeh it might have been a light band of rain but still it was forecasted and gfs got it wrong!!

It's developing now in the east midlands.

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Posted
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters,warm summers and Storms
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
6 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Interesting !

ECM gets the polar front past you - with -5c locally indicating you could see some snow!

46C884F7-26EB-44E0-BE84-BEC3519BA803.thumb.png.3227321262a2bc71a4a4fad33d5f54e8.png

Steve

Why does that chart show Aberdeen in the Midlands and Edinburgh in the Channel?

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
1 minute ago, cheshire snow said:

Steve

Why does that chart show Aberdeen in the Midlands and Edinburgh in the Channel?

And Hamburg and Berlin in Italy

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Posted
  • Location: Ramsey, Minnesota (USA)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms/Snow/Hail & Strong Winds
  • Location: Ramsey, Minnesota (USA)
5 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Steve

Why does that chart show Aberdeen in the Midlands and Edinburgh in the Channel?

I believe he just took a screenshot before it all loaded! WXcharts can often be a little slow to change its scales when going inbetween diffrerent map sizes.

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Could be some very severe weather in Central Europe with the 20c 850pha isotherm running through Spain, southern Italy and Greece and the 0c isotherm just a few hundred miles north! 

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
21 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Steve

Why does that chart show Aberdeen in the Midlands and Edinburgh in the Channel?

I just love the fact Birmingham is in Northern Spain, I better get the Sangria out then!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
1 hour ago, ICE COLD said:

ECM still going for it . 

0D132BC4-6154-4AD8-B164-E7A992E696CA.png

A0E6D342-6B82-49F5-A560-FEEB032272A1.png

Excellent cross polar profile flow, those who like cold and snow in the winter dream of such charts, alas in May perhaps not what many may wish to see, but statistically far more likely to see such synoptics now than in winter sadly - due to the seasonal demise of the PV.

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Like others have said, the ECM goes for a cold blast, and it looks like the mean agrees with it tonight.. I would love this set up during the winter months and it's so bloody frustrating to see it crop up in May, when it's to far gone to be nothing but a nuisance.. Maybe just maybe these charts will come off... Come the end of the year.. Still 4 weeks from the start of summer, so I'm pretty sure we will be seeing our fair share of summery weather. Onwards and upwards... 

EDM1-120.gif

EDM1-144.gif

EDM1-168.gif

EDM1-192.gif

EDM1-240.gif

EDM0-144.gif

EDM0-168.gif

EDM0-192.gif

graphe0_00_272_57___.png

Summer-Do-Not-Leave-Me-Yet-This-Year.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
10 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Like others have said, the ECM goes for a cold blast, and it looks like the mean agrees with it tonight.. I would love this set up during the winter months and it's so bloody frustrating to see it crop up in May, when it's to far gone to be nothing but a nuisance.. Maybe just maybe these charts will come off... Come the end of the year.. Still 4 weeks from the start of summer, so I'm pretty sure we will be seeing our fair share of summery weather. Onwards and upwards... 

EDM1-120.gif

EDM1-144.gif

EDM1-168.gif

EDM1-192.gif

EDM1-240.gif

EDM0-144.gif

EDM0-168.gif

EDM0-192.gif

graphe0_00_272_57___.png

Summer-Do-Not-Leave-Me-Yet-This-Year.jpg

If this comes off it is going to be really depressing for most people in lockdown- really hoping it gets watered down.

 

Also hopefully won't be too much damage to plants etc as everything is well ahead of normal in terms of growth after that exceptional April.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Matt is spot on about the ECM 12z ensemble mean tonight, it’s much more in line with the operational than the 0z was so more of a direct hit from the Arctic although as coldies know, counting down to a cold plunge could and usually does go pear shaped and could easily happen again if everything gets shunted further east..there’s actually some fine pleasant weather to enjoy under high pressure before that potential wintry sting and by day 10 there are some green shoots of recovery going forward from mid month!

61ED438C-75A5-4FDD-9172-8775C441C552.thumb.gif.d08e1850025db69dcd1d3223648129ed.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

The risk of a northerly is quite likely due to the very strong Arctic and Greenland heights that is being forecast. 

If such a set up does occur, hopefully it won't be a half hearted effort where the main thrust of instability head down the North Sea, at least make It worthwhile and have a chance of fairly rare May snowfall. 

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

Good god, what has gotten into the ECM?! 

ECM0-168.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
4 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

The risk of a northerly is quite likely due to the very strong Arctic and Greenland heights that is being forecast. 

If such a set up does occur, hopefully it won't be a half hearted effort where the main thrust of instability head down the North Sea, at least make It worthwhile and have a chance of fairly rare May snowfall. 

I think at the very least it looks like we're at risk of a damaging frost or two.

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Posted
  • Location: N.E. Scotland South Side Moray Firth 100m asl
  • Location: N.E. Scotland South Side Moray Firth 100m asl
1 hour ago, Scorcher said:

If this comes off it is going to be really depressing for most people in lockdown- really hoping it gets watered down.

 

Also hopefully won't be too much damage to plants etc as everything is well ahead of normal in terms of growth after that exceptional April.

Thankfully with the clear skies of April we had a frost on a lot of nights so growth is well behind here and the first housemartins only arrived two days ago about ten days later than usual.We even had a flock of geese still here last week.

Edited by Northernlights
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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
7 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Oh my, eyes almost popped out of their sockets when I saw the ECM day 7 chart. That would bring the real risk of low level May snow.

Convective thundersnow

on a more model note...

the eps/gefs mean at day ten

ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_11.thumb.png.139f49f96f5beafe2748847e6812e8aa.pngecmwf-ens_T850a_nhem_11.thumb.png.ec8160bc9c648847ce111b6d9bc58fc3.png

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_41.thumb.png.5c2a00022a69360cde1dd0d04c7c0e4b.pnggfs-ens_T850a_nhem_41.thumb.png.ca3474bdcf08df998db39bf00a6c2884.png

like others have said the eps goes for the northerly with quiet cool temps but the gefs are having none of it so who will be right,last week the models was showing a warm/hot plume for this week coming with a thundery breakdown but that seems to be watered down now but there is still some pleasant weather to be had though.

 

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Posted
  • Location: South ockendon essex
  • Weather Preferences: thunderstorms and HEAVY snow
  • Location: South ockendon essex
2 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

No one is ramping it up. Just commenting on how unusual it is.

I think we know what month it is now...

With all due respect Steve, im sure im not alone in not knowing what day it is,let alone what month! At least the weather is giving us else something to occupy our minds 

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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
32 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I think at the very least it looks like we're at risk of a damaging frost or two.

Not too much of a gardener but I never understand why people worry about frost(don't think there be any severe frosts for the majority due to cloud cover and wind) at this time of year when ground temperatures are higher now and the lag affect means any frost which does form on soils surely  won't last that long? 

In anycase any northerly blast may not be all that strong but colder air from the North does look likely. 

Edited by Geordiesnow
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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
40 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Convective thundersnow

on a more model note...

the eps/gefs mean at day ten

ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_11.thumb.png.139f49f96f5beafe2748847e6812e8aa.pngecmwf-ens_T850a_nhem_11.thumb.png.ec8160bc9c648847ce111b6d9bc58fc3.png

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_41.thumb.png.5c2a00022a69360cde1dd0d04c7c0e4b.pnggfs-ens_T850a_nhem_41.thumb.png.ca3474bdcf08df998db39bf00a6c2884.png

like others have said the eps goes for the northerly with quiet cool temps but the gefs are having none of it so who will be right,last week the models was showing a warm/hot plume for this week coming with a thundery breakdown but that seems to be watered down now but there is still some pleasant weather to be had though.

 

I wouldn’t call 3 days in a row of 21-23/24c bad at all. Low twenties is miles above average for early May.

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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

Wouldn’t it be so typical of seeing a cold spell in May that gives us uppers lower than what we’ve seen all winter! :pardon:

It can happen and certainly did back in May 05 or 06, can’t be sure what year it was. But travelling back down from Scotland and along the A66, the wind switched quickly from a W early morning to a moderate N’erly, and that gave a good covering especially up on the Pennines, and even at some lower levels in N Yorkshire. You wouldn’t have believed it was May that’s for sure. It’s a funny old month at times. 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Och well...the GFS has come into line!

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

With a slow but sustained recovery to follow. According to the 00Z ensembles::oldgood:

t850Bedfordshire.png    t2mBedfordshire.png

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