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Model Output Discussion - heading into April


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
4 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Can't be wrong at that range surely?

You'd hope so, but the lack of flight data.... 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Great continuity from the ECM 0z to the 12z with high pressure becoming the dominant feature next week and gradually turning warmer too as the anticyclone adjusts into a more favourable position / orientation...fingers crossed it’s right!☀️

B6D09439-11D1-4E20-A564-DFF036E6EFCE.thumb.png.a051cf38c501a50dad199e2112d4b53b.png08FA0024-5E76-4C2D-8A14-C8650AEB57F6.thumb.png.c5461f363443137ffd5ab44fe45f3996.pngF75EB2FE-CE4D-4581-BD71-216717E8797F.thumb.png.ac931d32c18897835fb22b8c6107b68a.png7863AEEE-1504-4A97-AFFB-E196AA9A0428.thumb.png.3941b4cb7f90bfebd1348f1f85ba2078.pngEA82C11F-9931-447B-8134-B59895241DD0.thumb.png.a9a097c73d8f00616d57e5a318f3ce97.pngEE8DF80B-7BFE-4827-839F-76AC767E2771.thumb.png.1a26e84893e8f71aa426f713a70cd989.pngB9E4DF36-5EBD-4BA2-8899-E2AA2F4C031C.thumb.png.0f4bdf04953eddf32540c9192356592e.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

some more great post's in here again today guys,everyone would think it was winter:whistling:

@Singularity the gfs being the party pooper

GEFS mean at 144 hrs v's the ECM mean,now i hope that the ECM is correct here

gensnh-21-1-144.thumb.png.4c6b8db5206eff811367e1493bf4abcf.pngEDH1-144.thumb.gif.bab281fd2a0d641611be3855fd42f824.gif

i quiet like the GEM too after 120 and also shows the plume pushing up from the south then to possibly break down later on with showers or thunderstorms

anim_kqh8.thumb.gif.38d98829fc393ec0a3117783a2e8bb14.gifanim_oxu1.thumb.gif.80a0711340812435cf245abc3097931c.gifanim_ucj1.thumb.gif.9e157b7f1bff479590d2435d32aa96c7.gif

the latest from cpc looks good from 6-10 days then the hp cell retrogresses west into the Atlantic

610day_03.thumb.gif.906617692653fcaeb5939c97153765db.gif814day_03.thumb.gif.97eb66af856460c19ee87041c2268f13.gif

so plenty(as always)to keep tabs on.

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

The Icon holding steady at 120

18z 120 v's 12z 126

icon-0-120.thumb.png.4577f1cad795cc0ebcc09e61a9959447.pngicon-0-126.thumb.png.56bc0edd47ee8d03bb4f57cb5a7d294d.png

Shirley it's right at this range

download.thumb.jpg.fb932deae259883d7bd0c29627ee9dec.jpg

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

GFS 18z showing the beginning of a thundery breakdown from the warm temperatures at 165

ukmaxtemp.thumb.png.81f9abfd9bad6445eee2d93b0d97ab91.png   ukprec.thumb.png.56174f6f519d1c8fe8c53f1223083b39.png   ukstormrisk.thumb.png.1c77789a61bc316f8a8700df96d0aeff.png   ukcapeli.thumb.png.dd718ddcb2951c6db6eba4b73323aa62.png

Hopefully we start to see storms like this soon at night 

375516289_giphy(1).thumb.gif.5db42c20efc5ba14801d44a05c678af7.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
2 hours ago, Singularity said:

It's time to play that classic game, spot the odd one out:

ECM1-144.GIF UW144-21.GIF gfs-0-144.png 
gem-0-144.png J144-21.GIF icon-0-144.png

Admittedly, you could call it two different odd ones out if you factor in the location of the peak SLP and not just how strong the ridge is .

ECM goes on to produce conditions reminiscent of what we saw a lot of earlier this month.

Interesting that height rises to the NW keep on appearing here and there but never stick around - possibly the N. Atlantic SST pattern, with big warm anomalies east of Newfoundland and cool anomalies northeast of there, is working in favour of lower pressure there, as it appeared to do May-Jul 2018.

Are we looking at mid 20s in this set up ? , still learning but want clarification. Thanks 

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

So looking increasingly like high pressure will indeed pay a visit next week, with low pressure relegated to a thundery pest from the west. Various takes on whether the plume will make it - most runs not that keen, but the UKMO could give a couple of warm/hot days with this:

UW144-7.GIF?30-07

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

According to the GFS 00Z, our beloved plume is starting to look like a bit of a pipe-dream:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

But the really scary stuff is reserved for the post-Day 10 period...a type of weather I truly detest, and which I hope is yet another manifestation of the GFS's infamous cold bias...?

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Even Voltaire's Dr Pangloss would have trouble making weather like that look good!:oldlaugh:

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The ECM 0z det / op shows high pressure paying a visit to the u k next week bringing a very pleasant spell for most which would be a big improvement on what we have this week!☀️

DBF1CA46-DD98-42C4-8F9A-740335018028.thumb.gif.f33d0cd687c566400fc1eb068523b598.gifE31840F2-86DC-4B15-8172-FDAF3AE18DED.thumb.gif.b7d563c54dc77fad63e28f4394bd13e3.gifE9FBED7B-EFC9-4219-BD12-0CE7879BAF5C.thumb.gif.c8c0d91a864c2ccd523a33168539c65d.gifA192B09A-95A8-4302-BF4B-F027B54889CE.thumb.gif.aa2aefe00c335d231a65df773f719f38.gifBA15B32A-EC24-4FA0-B89D-0633322C042D.thumb.gif.329968e57acc9b8f4954dea212640767.gif4B8BB3AE-8100-45E0-9726-0690DE90DBF1.thumb.gif.3b73610e970dadc4467e20b6ab04fc9b.gif

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

image.thumb.png.178ca88c00e306c1317454384ca3b3e5.png

This wouldn’t be a good set up at D10! 
 

Some nice warmer weather possible for a time next week looking more likely though. Enjoy it if it arrives!

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
32 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

image.thumb.png.178ca88c00e306c1317454384ca3b3e5.png

This wouldn’t be a good set up at D10! 
 

Some nice warmer weather possible for a time next week looking more likely though. Enjoy it if it arrives!

It's at day 10 though...the models are still not clear on day 5, let alone day 10.

Edited by Scorcher
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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
45 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

image.thumb.png.178ca88c00e306c1317454384ca3b3e5.png

This wouldn’t be a good set up at D10! 
 

Some nice warmer weather possible for a time next week looking more likely though. Enjoy it if it arrives!

Had a flick through the ECM ensembles at D15 and the signal for high pressure to the NW is huge - I might normally think ECM is going off on one but the GEFS has plenty of similar members. Unusual to get such strong signals at this long range. It doesn't completely rule out warmer weather but it would make it a lot harder.

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
6 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Had a flick through the ECM ensembles at D15 and the signal for high pressure to the NW is huge - I might normally think ECM is going off on one but the GEFS has plenty of similar members. Unusual to get such strong signals at this long range. It doesn't completely rule out warmer weather but it would make it a lot harder.

My thoughts too MWB. Not unusual at this time of year either. Once northern blocks start taking hold with a -AO pattern, it’s not usually a good UK set up. Can’t really complain too much after how amazing April has been though!

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

I guess the 06Z isn't all that bad; at least up to Day 9:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

After that, however, it's down the toilet (for at least six days!) we go!

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Please, Mr God, let it be the GFS's cold bias...I'll be good!:oldlaugh:

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

For southerners: Muy bien! 

702072192_ukmaxtemp(1).thumb.png.b306c15f163cb8551fa2917abfc18f7c.png   h850t850eu.thumb.png.014b186dd9d2bc339a1c4622b57ed22b.png   giphy.thumb.gif.b284f6b6bb69d1247583900603f03ae3.gif

Edited by Zak M
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Well, I don't know about Brexit, but the GFS 06Z operational certainly falls of a cliff!:shok::oldlaugh:

t850Bedfordshire.png    t2mBedfordshire.png

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

Afternoon All ! Anyone wanting some early heat may be a bit dissapointed. Both Ecm and Gfs show pressure building across the nation, next week but as the air is sourced from the north it won't be that warm with some pontentially cold nights with some frost. Looks like some lovely sunny days for most perhaps the gfs is overdoing the showers and lower pressure to the south west  of Britain. ....

ecmt850.120.png

h850t850eu-1.png

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Subtle differences in the short to medium range.

The Euro has a largely settled, dry and probably sunny spell for the UK from Monday-Friday and is supported by the UKMO for the Mon-Wednesday period.

The GFS although keeping fronts away from anywhere but the south looks dry, chilly and probably cloudy with lower pressure values and a more direct flow off the North Sea.

Beauty of a day 15 chart though.

spacer.png

Edited by summer blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
3 hours ago, Djdazzle said:

Am sure all models had strong signals for northern blocking a couple of weeks ago for around now, but that didn’t materialise.

True! I'm hoping for that very common collapse of modelled NW blocking towards the UK, which would lead to more nice settled weather. But this signal is as big as you could possibly expect at the timeframe, so I'm a little concerned that it might happen this time.

Clusters show this up well: height anomalies west, trough anomalies east (and south) - usually a concoction for a N or NEly draw. Cluster 3 could lead to settled weather for the UK and warm if the winds were light (cool with any breeze), but only 20% of the members go for that.

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020043000_300.

Edited by Man With Beard
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