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Model Output Discussion - heading into April


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Kendray,Barnsley,God's county.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing fog heatwave thunderstorm
  • Location: Kendray,Barnsley,God's county.

Is it just me or does the 6z gfs look totally different to 0z.where has the deep low gone for next week. Also looks a lot more settled to me. 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Looking at the Gfs 6z operational I would say next week it’s sunshine and April showers with some heavy with hail & thunder..looking longer term, yet again there are strong hints that pressure will rise again.☀️

D978D9F3-503F-417D-BBFB-69141BFF9CF5.thumb.png.f7150943a683d8e5ad6639629f3cd9d8.png4ABB6D54-21A2-47AC-8D04-094FCCED7828.thumb.png.13c9f5c09ea804a7908b920659ad6ca6.png

 

Edited by JON SNOW
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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

Good morning all! The GFS 06z is showing some unsettled weather for the start of May, and where places see the rain/showers, they could be heavy, with hail and thunder possible. After the unsettled spell though, it's showing something a bit more settled and perhaps warmer, with high pressure dominating. It is far beyond day 10 though so it is not to be taken seriously  Enjoy the rest of your morning everyone.

h500slp (18).png

h500slp (19).png

ukprec (8).png

h500slp (16).png

h500slp (17).png

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Could be one or two humdingers around next Friday?:drunk:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

C'est parfait!h500slp.png h850t850eu.png

Ah!   t850Bedfordshire.png   :oldlaugh:

Edited by General Cluster
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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

Evening all... the GFS 12z is almost exactly like the 06z, with unsettled weather and periods of rain very likely at the end of April and as we head into May. After the first week of May, it might look a bit more settled, but with a chance still of some rain. Right, now I'll be off for dinner! Have a good evening all.

h500slp.thumb.png.98542e4b6fc62e052fb70e984a26d748.png   656885591_h500slp(1).thumb.png.f87bee3d75cb7ef0efb0f2cf7f0b52c2.png   ukprec.thumb.png.1520c2d783f271cdecb5d665dc68fa33.png   2015535530_ukprec(1).thumb.png.b839fe3e3720f19bdca18f0758bf6d54.png

1081547397_h500slp(2).thumb.png.b2ae86a4e23ccebc4aa84134c58eba03.png   1930012610_ukprec(2).thumb.png.757dfa5251c698b2772ff2188e83db0f.png   h850t850eu.thumb.png.32464248843bf2d7113e141e609cda48.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
On 23/04/2020 at 08:35, SteveB said:

I can't believe you think we need rain, have you not been living in the UK for the last 8 months? I averaged +100mm every month from August to February. And suspect many other parts of the Country did the same, if not more. If there is one thing you can guarantee in UK weather - it's rain, you can however, guarantee sunshine. I for one, wouldn't care less if it didn't rain again until Autumn. But, as previously mentioned,  it always rains in the UK.

And when it does, it has a habit of sticking around for minimum of week or more, which it looks likely will happen from Monday onwards.

Too much of one thing is never good.

I think you would once the negative impacts a prolonged period of dry weather starts to affect your way of life.

Long dry periods brings insect infestations and plant diseases, increased erosion, habitat and landscape degradation, a decrease in air quality and that of what water is present, as well as an increased risk of fire because of drier vegetation.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
29 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

Too much of one thing is never good.

I think you would once the negative impacts a prolonged period of dry weather starts to affect your way of life.

Long dry periods brings insect infestations and plant diseases, increased erosion, habitat and landscape degradation, a decrease in air quality and that of what water is present, as well as an increased risk of fire because of drier vegetation.

 

Maybe I didn't get my point across well enough. While I would love to have a long dry period of weather - it's extremely unlikely in this Country. Therefore, saying we need the rain, is pointless, because it will rain, and must probably, a lot..

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Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
4 minutes ago, SteveB said:

Maybe I didn't get my point across well enough. While I would love to have a long dry period of weather - it's extremely unlikely in this Country. Therefore, saying we need the rain, is pointless, because it will rain, and must probably, a lot..

But saying you wouldn't careless is nonsensical.. Would it be ok if someone said that somewhere where rain is scarce, but it rained so much that flood is causing devastation?

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Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
38 minutes ago, SteveB said:

Therefore, saying we need the rain, is pointless, because it will rain, and must probably, a lot..

Just because it will rain doesn’t mean its pointless. 
 

We need rain just as much as we need sun and everything else. It’s no good having a long, dry period of weather, just like it’s no good having a long spell of wet weather. 
 

Both have devastations in their own way. 

Edited by Josh Rubio
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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

However it pans out across the UK later next week, the big dive of a broad trough down west of Europe looks to pump a lot of heat out of N. Africa into SW. Europe.

So, if we see a decent AAM climb to follow the current neutral spell, we'll probably have some notable heat over Spain to keep an eye on as the pattern finds its way back to one friendly to UK/European ridges.

Before then, could be a lot of rain while the polar boundary straddles the UK - especially if low pressure draws in a bit of the initial 'plume' build in W. Europe.

Imagine if we went straight back to flooding after the long mostly dry stretch. Hopefully it won't come to that but will be a useful deposit of rainfall before a return to finer weather. That'd be ideal in my books.

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

Enough of the we need rain/we don't need rain comments in here, please.. We have a Spring chat thread for that.

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Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

Evening all

It certainly looks a much more unsettled week next week for most of the British Isles with rain and cooler temperatures for most.

Looking beyond that the 12Z ECM, GEM, GFS OP and GFS Control at T+240:

ECM1-240.GIF?24-0gem-0-240.png?12gfs-0-240.png?12gens-0-1-240.png

Actually, less varied than you might suppose with only ECM not having LP firmly in charge. Signs of a mid Atlantic ridge but strong northern blocking on GEM in particular and both conspire to keep the trough close to or over the British isles so while not cold very unsettled with rain or showers heaviest in western and southwestern parts.

ECM is also alone in keeping heights low over Scandinavia and while there are hints of a northward push of heat on all the models from North Africa it's not coming our way but heading either east or staying in the Mediterranean basin. 

This is a pattern we sometimes see earlier in the summer season as the pulses of heat occur to the east and west of the British Isles and we are caught under the trough - further west and we'd get a S'ly draw and some decent warmth - further east and we'd be getting a chilly N'ly but the LP is over Ireland so not cold - just wet.

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Posted
  • Location: Kendray,Barnsley,God's county.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing fog heatwave thunderstorm
  • Location: Kendray,Barnsley,God's county.

Don't no what's happened to the 18zgfs. But I bet its a cold outer. That northerly is something else. Only want to see that in January not may lol. Image below. 

h850t850eu (6).png

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

The 18z is absolutely ridiculous tonight, got it's seasons completely mixed up, more like mid January than mid May!! There's even some snow for the Isle of White there....:olddoh:

 

 

 

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gfs-1-324.png

gfs-1-348.png

gfs-1-372.png

gfs-2-348.png

gfs-16-348.png

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Posted
  • Location: Kendray,Barnsley,God's county.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing fog heatwave thunderstorm
  • Location: Kendray,Barnsley,God's county.
1 minute ago, snowray said:

The 18z is absolutely ridiculous tonight, got it's seasons completely mixed up, more like mid January than mid May!! There's even some snow for the Isle of White there....:olddoh:

 

 

 

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gfs-2-348.png

gfs-16-348.png

Was the outlier of the pack thankfully ha ha. Op in black. 

graphe3_1000_279_22___.png

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The 0z output indicates a preety unsettled outlook with some very welcome rain and if you’re looking for more warmth, there is some potential in the longer term GEFS 0z..have a nice weekend.

676F5695-8968-4523-B63F-FB693D016D90.thumb.png.86a55543d2635a31406c00c4e2be887e.png811B6AF6-2D14-4D47-A18C-26DDB0F56E75.thumb.png.7be5314d23474dae6c48886bc49035a1.pngFED8C38D-931B-4B02-9ED1-29F4CAA63CDD.thumb.png.fcb2781e4dfde65bf25ef636ab6ffcb8.pngC305C934-51C9-4354-AF42-36054B8B64E8.thumb.png.6235d51f8ae0237605b203bd2bf06c45.pngC138341A-F344-435F-AA48-2BB2CFF5B351.thumb.png.14e52d2f782bda78a5a6a84d022a8b9b.png

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Apart from Day 9, around which time, southern and eastern parts especially may experience some interesting interaction between Atlantic air and a notably warm Continental plume, today's GFS 00Z looks a tad typical for the time of year:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

And, it's also interesting to see that, as far as T850s go, the operational run is no warm outlier; the 2m temps are actually on the cool side of the ensemble:

t850Suffolk.png    t2mSuffolk.png

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

image.thumb.gif.d95de6f48a639019e97b4ba27fb56efb.gif

Here comes the rain folks. For people complaining of being bored of the same weather for the last month, change is coming. Back to normal.

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)

It does generally look as though a more unsettled picture will be taking over during the next 7 or so days, particularly for North-Western UK areas, as models show troughing developing more over the UK along with some flabby areas of Low Pressure.

6E440ED1-8CC1-4911-B61C-246117F408E5.thumb.png.2e5b5633aeed12ae9af3279c177b05c5.pngE7A69597-E3B2-42E1-963B-2485920A097E.thumb.png.1e2d55c594a89a009f3e7ef7bea0a9ca.pngFBF3AD26-F7A7-41E3-813C-10200BDE4283.thumb.png.e1f8fbc1b260d7eb99284802e0c4603e.pngAD3E5D1D-4AF9-4CBC-99D3-17C623384A9B.thumb.png.9ee9587a2f59770b36a436fef92e6982.png20404440-130F-44A0-AA96-E2AD25E42DA5.thumb.png.dfab594cecb572d80ccbeba737c61c8d.pngC5DD7551-3D99-4F16-B3C9-966AC64FE6FA.thumb.png.ae35dc5cb88fb4f16bad7e87fbe059ba.png
 

The Icelandic blocking, despite weakening throughout next week, keeping Low Pressure close and over the UK. The Lows looking to become a little bit more developed throughout that week and probably becoming a bit more concentrated towards Western and Northern-Western UK. Those areas of which would then see the worst in the way of the rain and showers. Certainly chillier than a lot of us have been used to. Again, especially so towards the North and West.

Worth saying that compared to what some of the other operational runs show at 144 hours, the ICON 00Z really blows up Low Pressure in the mid Atlantic later next week.

00Z ECMWF

C3785815-580C-44EA-8E57-D69967E19730.thumb.png.900b7f0cf33bf7063dfc602c966194c6.png

00Z UKMO

0251E1B4-9CA9-4A78-9676-5DA2A2BE2978.thumb.png.612c3a5c544208ab2840adf1714691f5.png

00Z ICON

07784501-BDCD-4299-A063-4D911A845E85.thumb.png.fe25719a9a871d0895249611172c233c.png

Quite an angry boy as you can see

However, the ICON does lead to a Southerly at 180 hours with ridging of High Pressure being pumped up to the East of the UK over mainland Europe. Along with increasing heights.

C9F1718F-EEC4-48ED-B4B9-DA1A58ACEE20.thumb.png.da88d69e1a683a0c0b5f80146e3642c2.png4CF796C0-0815-449F-A697-1B7125FCE4F5.thumb.png.ee3c9b8d722233910e047c28e42df31c.png

So a chance that the weather would start warming up again, particularly over Eastern UK, which would see the best of the way of any brighter, drier, spells closest to that ridging. Probably just a bit more retrogression West of that deep mid-Atlantic trough and more areas of the UK could see a more settled, drier spell. Just an example from one model though and not a guarantee this would happen. Some wet weather would be welcome as things have been very dry recently (certainly here). But also seeing some warmer weather return would be great also. As some say as well, with a possibility for some Low Pressure areas to bump into some warmer air from our South and East, things could go bang ⚡️ 
 

 

Edited by DiagonalRedLine
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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

As per my post in the telecon thread, pretty much every model has been trending towards a more changeable pattern since early this week.

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
2 hours ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

It does generally look as though a more unsettled picture will be taking over during the next 7 or so days, particularly for North-Western UK areas, as models show troughing developing more over the UK along with some flabby areas of Low Pressure.

6E440ED1-8CC1-4911-B61C-246117F408E5.thumb.png.2e5b5633aeed12ae9af3279c177b05c5.pngE7A69597-E3B2-42E1-963B-2485920A097E.thumb.png.1e2d55c594a89a009f3e7ef7bea0a9ca.pngFBF3AD26-F7A7-41E3-813C-10200BDE4283.thumb.png.e1f8fbc1b260d7eb99284802e0c4603e.pngAD3E5D1D-4AF9-4CBC-99D3-17C623384A9B.thumb.png.9ee9587a2f59770b36a436fef92e6982.png20404440-130F-44A0-AA96-E2AD25E42DA5.thumb.png.dfab594cecb572d80ccbeba737c61c8d.pngC5DD7551-3D99-4F16-B3C9-966AC64FE6FA.thumb.png.ae35dc5cb88fb4f16bad7e87fbe059ba.png
 

The Icelandic blocking, despite weakening throughout next week, keeping Low Pressure close and over the UK. The Lows looking to become a little bit more developed throughout that week and probably becoming a bit more concentrated towards Western and Northern-Western UK. Those areas of which would then see the worst in the way of the rain and showers. Certainly chillier than a lot of us have been used to. Again, especially so towards the North and West.

Worth saying that compared to what some of the other operational runs show at 144 hours, the ICON 00Z really blows up Low Pressure in the mid Atlantic later next week.

00Z ECMWF

C3785815-580C-44EA-8E57-D69967E19730.thumb.png.900b7f0cf33bf7063dfc602c966194c6.png

00Z UKMO

0251E1B4-9CA9-4A78-9676-5DA2A2BE2978.thumb.png.612c3a5c544208ab2840adf1714691f5.png

00Z ICON

07784501-BDCD-4299-A063-4D911A845E85.thumb.png.fe25719a9a871d0895249611172c233c.png

Quite an angry boy as you can see

However, the ICON does lead to a Southerly at 180 hours with ridging of High Pressure being pumped up to the East of the UK over mainland Europe. Along with increasing heights.

C9F1718F-EEC4-48ED-B4B9-DA1A58ACEE20.thumb.png.da88d69e1a683a0c0b5f80146e3642c2.png4CF796C0-0815-449F-A697-1B7125FCE4F5.thumb.png.ee3c9b8d722233910e047c28e42df31c.png

So a chance that the weather would start warming up again, particularly over Eastern UK, which would see the best of the way of any brighter, drier, spells closest to that ridging. Probably just a bit more retrogression West of that deep mid-Atlantic trough and more areas of the UK could see a more settled, drier spell. Just an example from one model though and not a guarantee this would happen. Some wet weather would be welcome as things have been very dry recently (certainly here). But also seeing some warmer weather return would be great also. As some say as well, with a possibility for some Low Pressure areas to bump into some warmer air from our South and East, things could go bang ⚡️ 
 

 

The low pressure heat pumps to the SW of the UK are my least favourite type of heat. Usually oppressive and sticky in the summer....sure it might inject instability and give the chance of storms, but give me a 2018 summer or even April 2020 dry continental heat any day. Clear skies and 30% humidity. Lovely.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Going by the GFS 06Z, the plumes looks like it'll miss the UK; but, thankfully, no sign of anything too cold. Yet!:unsure2:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

Good afternoon all, still looking unsettled for next week at the end of April and into the start of May, with periods of rain likely for almost everywhere of the UK, some heavy with hail and thunder. The latest GFS run however is showing a spell of more settled weather from day 11 onwards, with warm and above average temperatures for the time of year. Obviously it is well outside the reliable time frame so there will be some changes. Enjoy the rest of your afternoon 

h500slp.thumb.png.34e528c49bee95ffe203093e84ef4c2e.png   ukprec.thumb.png.1fd75504158ede8195ad3d8fe5d73733.png   1890253475_h500slp(1).thumb.png.c5c18ba232120264a2b252c3129bc680.png   580388948_h500slp(2).thumb.png.3235a0a1c63df6bd801c5285cb90ba72.png   552039958_ukprec(1).thumb.png.9fd9976f94d98325c57864a650724f4d.png   788399710_h500slp(3).thumb.png.a9991ed319deee5791a154ccf5758d88.png   1878323747_h500slp(4).thumb.png.04fb400b8bf2cbc57e881edf2d84da05.png   ukmaxtemp.thumb.png.faa4226e14dc91943ea12a35ac5508f7.png   h850t850eu.thumb.png.3a31b3eb3a11a07caf4d5f283fe58f04.png   961910565_ukmaxtemp(1).thumb.png.596e96dae4356364aa5c67171dd9a124.png   41420224_h500slp(5).thumb.png.57ea23275daa71301debbbbb5c60f9f8.png

Edited by Zak M
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

And after that, things only get better::drunk::yahoo::clapping::oldgood:

Day 11:    h500slp.png  h850t850eu.png

Day 13:    h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

Day 15:    h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

What could possibly go wrong!:oldlaugh:

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