Model Output Discussion - heading into April

[mountain shadow]

46 minutes ago, shaky said:

Yup and ukmo gone settled again today!!no where near guaranteed yet that its gone be as unsettled as gfs shows!!amazing how this dry weather just keeps goin on and on and could carry on if ecm and ukmo prove to be correct!!

ECM is a big turnaround too with pressure building again over Scandi and keeping the Atlantic mostly away.

Hopefully we can get a more Southerly draw and get some higher temperatures.

[mb018538]

I wouldn’t go off doing celebratory laps just yet. ECM is a big high pressure outlier this morning. Still on a knife edge.

[mountain shadow]

25 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

I wouldn’t go off doing celebratory laps just yet. ECM is a big high pressure outlier this morning. Still on a knife edge.

Booooooo!!!!

[Tim Bland]

2 hours ago, mb018538 said:

Houston, we have a problem:

GFS, GEM and ECM at day 8. Wildly different.

Back the GEM & ECM over GFS all day long. Look at the stats ...

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

Yes defo knife edge. Gfs 18z last night was terrible. Thought was all over. Ecm gives us up of keeping the nice warm weather. 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Well folks it's a glorious week for a lot of us, could be cooler at times towards the East Coast with perhaps some variable amounts of cloud, but hopefully they get plenty of decent weather too.... I'm not going into depth over the Weekend, as its still a little unclear and uncertain... And current times have helped me not to get to stressed over the weather... Anyway if it does breakdown a tad come early May... My sources at Exeter tell me we could be settled again by mid May.. So have a Cold one on me..

[shaky]

Gfs looks like its gone towards ecm at 96 and 120 hours!!swallows that little shortwave near iceland into the main vortex west of greenland!!COULD see an extension of warmth and sun on the 12zs this evening!

Edit:just to add it then slides that main are of low pressure way south and west of us and back to square one with high pressure building around it into the uk especially on the control run at 192 hours!!although does not look as warm as it is now the dry weather continues!!

Edited April 20, 2020 by shaky

[shaky]

Icon 12z out and is settled till pretty much the end of the run!!!!step 1 towards the extension of this remarkable dry period done!!only ukmo gfs and ecm left

[Frosty.]

Looking at the longer term GEFS 6z, early May..MAY actually be pretty warm!

 

[shaky]

And is of by magic the gfs and ukmo join the ecm this evening and continue this lovely spell of weather!out to 144 hours so far!!could change back on the next runs but at the moment if dry sunny weather is your thing then its looking pretty good!

[Methuselah]

Looks like we're sat under a slack area of low pressure, to me...at T+144?

    

Good enough for me, but hardly 'glorious'?

 

[shaky]

Gfs goes unsettled at 192 hours but the key is its pushed back again!!lets see what ecm comes up with!!

[Methuselah]

Pretty unsettled at T+162, I'd say?

    

[Downburst]

1 hour ago, General Cluster said:

Pretty unsettled at T+162, I'd say?

    

Very slack low pressure indeed, not pretty unsettled by my standard, with pressure above 1008 and higher for vast majority might be a few spots of welcome drizzle for some.

[Andy Bown]

To me slack LOW pressure brings sunny starts, increasing towering clouds by midday and heavy showers through the afternoon with plenty of sun too.

[Methuselah]

7 minutes ago, Downburst said:

Very slack low pressure indeed, not pretty unsettled by my standard, with pressure above 1008 and higher for vast majority might be a few spots of welcome drizzle for some.

Or slow-moving thundery showers?

[mb018538]

That particular gfs run with the low shows persistent rain for 12 hours in the south, with nearly an inch of rain.

Anyway - GEM still goes high pressure. Who will be wrong??

[Djdazzle]

At T168, ECM and GFS are miles apart!

[mb018538]

Hmm. Not helpful. All models really struggling with the phasing from out of next weekend, and ending up with hugely different day 7-10 outcomes as a result. Thought they might have tied it up today, but we’re still no clearer at all.

[shaky]

16 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Hmm. Not helpful. All models really struggling with the phasing from out of next weekend, and ending up with hugely different day 7-10 outcomes as a result. Thought they might have tied it up today, but we’re still no clearer at all.

Ecm looks loads drier!!defo extension of the dryness lol!!!lets see what the 00zs bring!!

[Frosty.]

For those of us (the majority I assume) who are looking for early May producing a taste of summer, I found a few nice charts from the GEFS 12z!

[Man With Beard]

So ECM has well and truly pushed unsettled weather to at least the end of the weekend, and very likely to see more days maxing between 20C and 24C towards the end of the week. 

Same old story - the models try to get a more unsettled pattern in place for next week - I suspect they may get closer to the mark this time as we are being attacked both from the west and east. 

[ANYWEATHER]

Evening! Both models are showing in some way a depletion in air pressure by the weekend ,  watch this space. ..

[damianslaw]

20 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

So ECM has well and truly pushed unsettled weather to at least the end of the weekend, and very likely to see more days maxing between 20C and 24C towards the end of the week. 

Same old story - the models try to get a more unsettled pattern in place for next week - I suspect they may get closer to the mark this time as we are being attacked both from the west and east. 

Yes there is a pincer attack taking place as we move through latter end to the month, both from the NE and to the SW, with pressure draining away as we move through this week, slack low pressure looking an eventual outcome followed probably by a more concerted atlantic attack, once the pressure drops. We are entering the time of year when slack low pressure can bring localised downpours thanks to added heat in the atmosphere and convection kicking into gear.

[shaky]

Icon 18z warm and dry to 120 hours!!fresh high ridging in from the atlantic/azores at 120 hours!!in line with ecm!!