Model Output Discussion - heading into April

[Man With Beard]

The models definitely do want to get rid of the ridge that has been based near US for some time, but I still have my doubts over where this will actually go, this type of chart at D5 does not seem to have any sense of direction for the next move 

Last night's clusters are a bit of a mish mash by D11

[Frosty.]

Looking through the GEFS 0z I happen to think the first days of May...MAY be preeety good!

 

[Methuselah]

Indeed @JON SNOW, there some quite god/interesting synoptics being hinted-at there. Even a potentially, though admittedly not very warm (and a very long way into the future!) thundery low:

    

    

    

    

    

And who needs 25C air temps anyway, when grovelling in the dirt!

And, even better, the GFS 00Z Operational lies at the colder end of the GEFS ensembles:

    

Edited April 19, 2020 by General Cluster

[Frosty.]

I’m really liking the GEFS 0z mean for most of the week ahead, it screams beautiful sunny days and gradually warming up, from next Friday the fine spell crumbles as pressure falls but that doesn’t preclude further warm fine spells and perhaps something much warmer and more humid / thundery from the south!!!

Edited April 19, 2020 by JON SNOW

[damianslaw]

A fair bit of uncertainty creeping into the semi-reliable timeframe now, roughly what happens day 6 onwards i.e. 25th and beyond. Models continue to show falling pressure over NE Scand/NW Russia region associated with a shift in the northern hemispheric pattern, this enables heights to our NE to transfer NW and become much less robust in nature, whilst at the same time pressure is forecast to lower over mid-east atlantic. It leaves us in a bit of a no-mans land, unclear whether the lower heights to the west will anchor through into the UK, or the heights to the north/north west advect far enough NW to draw in a colder northerly/north easterly feed.

Either way the latter end to the month is currently forecast to bring something much more unsettled than has been the case since mid-March, not a complete washout, but we could see quite slow moving frontal / low pressure system and trough feature over the UK held in place by heights to the NW, low heights to our NE, and low heights to the SW, no-where for it to go - with the jet making a direct beeline for the UK.

The atlantic influence probably symptomatic of the continued slow death of the PV, and renewed surge of westerlies.. 

[Man With Beard]

Total scattergun on the clusters again post D10

Maybe a slight tendency for a ridge to our east, which could promote warmth, but no clear direction. 

[Methuselah]

GFS 06Z not looking at all bad, folks?

    

    

   

    

    

    

I keep needing to remind myself, that Summer is still almost six weeks away!

[Geordiesnow]

Some uncertainty on how the high may break down and just how wet it will get although it does seem next weekend the weather will be cooler again as a northerly flow may get picked up but even that is not a certainty. 

I wonder why there is a lack of low cloud forecast this week, I'm guessing the air is too dry but it's still a lengthy sea track and warm air aloft. From my experience in the NE when an easterly sets up you usually get one fine daay of clear blue skies and sunshine then the low cloud rolls in overnight and then it's in the lap of the gods whether it breaks up or not. 

[knocker]

20 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

Some uncertainty on how the high may break down and just how wet it will get although it does seem next weekend the weather will be cooler again as a northerly flow may get picked up but even that is not a certainty. 

I wonder why there is a lack of low cloud forecast this week, I'm guessing the air is too dry but it's still a lengthy sea track and warm air aloft. From my experience in the NE when an easterly sets up you usually get one fine daay of clear blue skies and sunshine then the low cloud rolls in overnight and then it's in the lap of the gods whether it breaks up or not. 

A reasonable guess

[Frosty.]

Looking beyond the frankly gorgeous weather expected during the next 5 days or so according to the GEFS 6z mean & other output..there is no need to despair because although the mean trend is for pressure to fall and the weather to become less settled, that doesn’t preclude further warm fine weather into May and indeed there is support for warm weather during early May!..in the meantime, despite the ongoing horrors of COVID-19..there is plenty of sunny and increasingly warm weather to enjoy in the days ahead..as today!

 

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, JON SNOW said:

Looking beyond the frankly gorgeous weather expected during the next 5 days or so according to the GEFS 6z mean & other output..there is no need to despair because although the mean trend is for pressure to fall and the weather to become less settled, that doesn’t preclude further warm fine weather into May and indeed there is support for warm weather during early May!..in the meantime, despite the ongoing horrors of COVID-19..there is plenty of sunny and increasingly warm weather to enjoy in the days ahead..as today!

 

Indeed not, karl...And, looking at the GEFS 12Z temperature ensembles, just about anything could happen, after the 27th?

    

[Geordiesnow]

50 minutes ago, knocker said:

A reasonable guess

You going have to explain that chart to us knocker, although I'm assuming the charts are showing a lack of low cloud but why? 

[knocker]

The chart indicates fairly low humidity at quite low levels which is  confirmed by the sounding so probably;y too dry for cloud formation but although of course this is pretty broad brush

[Frosty.]

3 minutes ago, knocker said:

The chart indicates fairly low humidity at quite low levels which is  confirmed by the sounding so probably;y too dry for cloud formation but although of course this is pretty broad brush

Such a pleasure to see clear blue skies expected during most of the week ahead rather than the usual North Sea filth one would usually endure with such a set-up at this time of year in particular!!..

[Djdazzle]

Make the most of this week, as the 12z runs are pretty vile from the weekend onwards.

[mb018538]

20 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Make the most of this week, as the 12z runs are pretty vile from the weekend onwards.

Certainly looking far more sketchy from the second half of the weekend onwards. Can’t really moan, we’ve had about 5-6 weeks of bone dry weather with sunshine and warmth. Was never going to last forever!

[snowsummer]

Nice clear skies for the meteor shower tonight. Temps not too low either ( although i have just took a rather heavy quilt out to the garden!)

[MildCarlilse]

10 hours ago, mb018538 said:

Certainly looking far more sketchy from the second half of the weekend onwards. Can’t really moan, we’ve had about 5-6 weeks of bone dry weather with sunshine and warmth. Was never going to last forever!

Northwest Scotland is on day six of dry weather.

[mushymanrob]

18 hours ago, Geordiesnow said:

Some uncertainty on how the high may break down and just how wet it will get although it does seem next weekend the weather will be cooler again as a northerly flow may get picked up but even that is not a certainty. 

I wonder why there is a lack of low cloud forecast this week, I'm guessing the air is too dry but it's still a lengthy sea track and warm air aloft. From my experience in the NE when an easterly sets up you usually get one fine daay of clear blue skies and sunshine then the low cloud rolls in overnight and then it's in the lap of the gods whether it breaks up or not. 

i cant speak for your neck of the woods, but here in derby it depends largely on the exact wind direction.
a breeze south of east doesnt have a long sea track so here we are unlikely to get cloud.
a breeze north of east and its usual to get those "dead skies"... north sea stratus... at least in the mornings.

what fantastic air quality we had yesterday.... fresh, warm, scented with springtime blossoms...

[mb018538]

Houston, we have a problem:

GFS, GEM and ECM at day 8. Wildly different.

[Man With Beard]

4 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Houston, we have a problem:

GFS, GEM and ECM at day 8. Wildly different.

It's still looking very uncertain where we will go from Friday/Saturday onwards, given the slack situation. A growing number of models keeping it more settled, though. 

[Scorcher]

8 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

It's still looking very uncertain where we will go from Friday/Saturday onwards, given the slack situation. A growing number of models keeping it more settled, though. 

Yes a couple of people jumped on the GFS run yesterday evening, convinced it was going to be poor from the weekend onwards. Wouldn't surprise me if the GFS is being a bit overzealous in bringing in the Atlantic, as it often is.

[mb018538]

Quick switch around from the anomaly charts as I thought a couple of days ago. Strong +ve heights replaced by negative ones towards Greenland.

[shaky]

20 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

It's still looking very uncertain where we will go from Friday/Saturday onwards, given the slack situation. A growing number of models keeping it more settled, though. 

Yup and ukmo gone settled again today!!no where near guaranteed yet that its gone be as unsettled as gfs shows!!amazing how this dry weather just keeps goin on and on and could carry on if ecm and ukmo prove to be correct!!

[Andy Bown]

23 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Yes a couple of people jumped on the GFS run yesterday evening, convinced it was going to be poor from the weekend onwards. Wouldn't surprise me if the GFS is being a bit overzealous in bringing in the Atlantic, as it often is.

Wasn’t it the GFS that predicted at less than a weeks notice a breakdown to an unsettled cool Easter weekend? Then in reality it stayed glorious and warm until last Monday which although cooler was still sunny. The same could happen again.