Model Output Discussion - heading into April

[johnholmes]

Is anyone having an issue with google this evening, I cannot get on and it is my main web methiod, used M Edge to post this?

thanks

[viking_smb]

1 minute ago, johnholmes said:

Is anyone having an issue with google this evening, I cannot get on and it is my main web methiod, used M Edge to post this?

thanks

using google chrome on win 7 pro x64 no issues, and google search engine is fine 

[johnholmes]

ok tks wonder what my problem is?

[viking_smb]

what are you running mate? 

Edited April 14, 2020 by viking_smb

[johnholmes]

windows 10

[viking_smb]

Internet explorer or google chrome? as IE can be a bit pain sometimes hence why I now use chrome. 

have you tried rebooting? other option possibly to try is to clear the cache and temp internet files/cookies, 

Edited April 14, 2020 by viking_smb

[johnholmes]

9 hours ago, viking_smb said:

Internet explorer or google chrome? as IE can be a bit pain sometimes hence why I now use chrome. 

have you tried rebooting? other option possibly to try is to clear the cache and temp internet files/cookies, 

thanks for the sggestions v_s, I'll try them tomorrow morning-off to bed now!

 

seems ok now after playing around!

Edited April 15, 2020 by johnholmes

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 0z mean is still showing retrogression with heights sucked NW towards Greenland so that means there is potential for a colder / less settled late April but before that there should be plenty of fine pleasant surface conditions associated with high pressure in the vicinity of the u k but also watch out for a risk of heavy showers later this week across the sw / s.

[Frosty.]

There’s plenty of high pressure / strong ridging on the ECM 0z operational which suggests a good deal of fine / pleasant surface conditions across most of the u k with sunny spells but later this week there is an increasing risk of showers for the sw / s, some heavy and thundery for a time. As for temperatures, variations from day to day / night to night..high pressure edging NW later which is in line with the GEFS 0z mean I mentioned earlier.

Edited April 15, 2020 by JON SNOW

[Methuselah]

Nae a bad GFS 00Z run, this morning: oodles of sunshine but temps would be variable, owing to the day-to-day position/orientation of the HP...

           

    

And those charts will, of course, all verify!

Edited April 15, 2020 by General Cluster

[nobble]

Would anyone ague against it bein to late for lowland snow now ??

One last blast

[Djdazzle]

22 minutes ago, nobble said:

Would anyone ague against it bein to late for lowland snow now ??

One last blast

It’s possible but very, very rare  in any case, there is nothing in the models to suggest it will be cold enough.

[Man With Beard]

18 minutes ago, nobble said:

Would anyone ague against it bein to late for lowland snow now ??

One last blast

Not impossible if everything lines up correctly - needs to be direct northerly - this GEFS member could manage it?

    

Regarding the general scenario, still quite uncertain for the UK at around T144 - on these clusters, some sort of flow from the east is likely unless the Atlantic trough develops and gets closer - get too close and there'll be rain, get fairly close but not too close and another warm southerly could sneak in.

Further out, though, the movement towards ridging to the N or NW has gained pace. Such set-ups are unlikely to allow warm air masses to move up to the UK (unless home-grown in the far W), and leave opportunities for the kind of cold blast highlighted in the GEFS member above:

though ECM attempts to build NW blocking in the mid-term often result in blocks further east than first advertised, so W areas in particular may still do well out of the final third of April.

[Methuselah]

Lovely chart from the GFS 12Z:     

[Frosty.]

49 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Lovely chart from the GFS 12Z:     

Indeed Ed, perfick innit, cold, dull and windy with rain in the south.

 

[mb018538]

49 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Lovely chart from the GFS 12Z:     

Doesn’t looks great to me! Strong easterly winds. Temps 8-14c.

[Zak M]

The GFS 12z is an amazing run if you like settled weather.

It has a high dominating most of the UK up to the start of May!!

Obviously the chances of this verifying are not too high (pun intended) but it is showing signs of more warmer and settled weather into next week once again!!

Edited April 15, 2020 by Zak M

[mb018538]

6 minutes ago, Zak M said:

The GFS 12z is an amazing run if you like warm and settled weather.

It has a high dominating most of the UK up to the start of May!!

Obviously the chances of this verifying are not too high (pun intended) but it is showing signs of more warmer and settled weather into next week once again!!

Eh? It’s not that warm. 850s are hovering around or below zero from 192-384 hours. Are we looking at the same thing here?!

[Zak M]

6 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Eh? It’s not that warm. 850s are hovering around or below zero from 192-384 hours. Are we looking at the same thing here?!

I meant that next week temperatures will be warmer than average for the time of year.

Sorry if I didn't make that clear.

[Scorcher]

12 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Eh? It’s not that warm. 850s are hovering around or below zero from 192-384 hours. Are we looking at the same thing here?!

It looks more than decent for western areas in particular in the reliable time frame. The 850s look ok to me for the most part.

16-18C is being shown for my area on the GFS surface temperature charts from Tuesday.

Important to remember that it's still only April so upper air around 0C isn't far off average.

Edited April 15, 2020 by Scorcher

[mb018538]

3 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

It looks more than decent for western areas in particular in the reliable time frame. The 850s look ok to me for the most part.

16-18C is being shown for my area on the GFS surface temperature charts from Tuesday.

Important to remember that it's still only April so upper air around 0C isn't far off average.

It’s not bad for next week granted. Final week could be back to low teens if the high sets up in the wrong place. Plenty can change until then though!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

So we have some fine and warm weather for most of England and Wales on Thursday, before we see an area of low pressure to the SW bringing showers for these parts on Fri and Sat... The North probably drier and cooler through this period... Sunday looks an improving picture, and into next week looks decent for sunny spells and a tad warmer... UKMO shows a SEtly drift to that wind early next week.. So let's just get end of the week and early weekend out of the way... Then not to bad again... In the mid term anyway. 

Just to show what we are all missing with that gif folks..

Edited April 15, 2020 by Mattwolves

[Methuselah]

And the T850 and 2m temps almost follow their respective ensemble means, so nowt too disturbing:

     

Anyone-else notice how much the BBC and MetO monthlies differed from one another?

[damianslaw]

3 hours ago, Zak M said:

I meant that next week temperatures will be warmer than average for the time of year.

Sorry if I didn't make that clear.

Temperatures currently forecast to be very average next week, the source of air is off the N Sea and points further east, no warm continental source. Nights will still be preety chilly.

After a showery wetter interlude for some later this week and through the weekend (more so central southern parts of England and Wales), the outlook remains a fairly dry settled picture, cloud amounts will be more variable and eastern parts will be disappointing with a fresh wind off the N Sea.

Longer term - signal is for heights to move NW towards Greenland, whether we pull in a cold N/NE shot before the months end no-one can call for certain, but certainly not out of the question and all very normal for late April. 

 

[damianslaw]

This is an automated response, used to help save the moderating team time during this busy period

This topic has been locked, possibly as it is a duplicate of an existing thread. Please have a read through the topics within this forum area and re-post into a relevant thread.

We generally have threads to cover general winter discussion, discussion of the latest model runs and discussion of any current winter weather. So if your post was relevant to any of those topics, please post into one of those threads.

If you would like to discuss the locking of this topic, please feel free to pm one of the team members. If you cannot use the pm system, please email forum[at]netweather.tv with any queries.