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Model Output Discussion - heading into April


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Lincs
  • Location: Lincs

Cracking outlook! Lots of warmth and sunshine on the way next week, hopefully the end of the desperate snow chasing for the season! High pressure looks close by for the bulk of April. Enjoy sensibly all and stay safe 

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
1 hour ago, coldwinter said:

Cracking outlook! Lots of warmth and sunshine on the way next week, hopefully the end of the desperate snow chasing for the season! High pressure looks close by for the bulk of April. Enjoy sensibly all and stay safe 

Just need to be wary of the 00z ecm. Looks like an outlier at present but would be a real spoiler if it came off.

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Posted
  • Location: Lincs
  • Location: Lincs
Just now, mb018538 said:

Just need to be wary of the 00z ecm. Looks like an outlier at present but would be a real spoiler if it came off.

I wouldnt mind it to be honest, some rain in between the warmth is perfect for growing plants! 

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
36 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Just need to be wary of the 00z ecm. Looks like an outlier at present but would be a real spoiler if it came off.

Ecm looked really good up to day 7 on 12z last night!!has it changed today?!!

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

The UKMO in a nutshell is peachy!! Plenty of fine and warm conditions throughout next week... If you can get out for a while and enjoy it... Please do... Obviously while maintaining the appropriate measures... DO STAY SAFE.. 

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Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow

I have notices growing trend of easterly winds here in Slovakia last few Aprils and Mays,pretty dry still but very windy and chilli yet still sunny. The switch then flips to a very hot Junes. For UK/IE it means nice spring but changeable come early summer towards west.Wonder if this year will follow the script. I am getting a bit nervous post 300hrs as another possible northerly could be on cards here in central Europe with unwanted frost. Last week I had -7C for three mornings in a row! Minima only 2C higher then all winter!

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

Settled weather galore!

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Looks like Easter weekend is giving the models headaches as to how the high/low pressures align in our locale. GFS 12z looks great but is a warm outlier...GEM brings a trough through over Friday and Saturday, settles down and then starts to have low pressure more influential by day 10. Let’s see what ECM says...

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Well - it’s very similar to the 00z run in that the Easter weekend is somewhat spoiled by a trough dropping in before high pressure fights back. Staying fairly warm, beat in the south and east.

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

ECM serves up a very respectable spell of weather over the next 10 day's or so... One potential fly in the ointment being a shallow trough perhaps bringing a dampener come next weekend.. Timing will be very much subject to change though! Beyond that high pressure looks to be keeping the Atlantic at bay.... For how long... Not sure, but we certainly can't complain over the general direction of travel in the short to mid term... Stay well. 

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
2 hours ago, jules216 said:

I have notices growing trend of easterly winds here in Slovakia last few Aprils and Mays,pretty dry still but very windy and chilli yet still sunny. The switch then flips to a very hot Junes. For UK/IE it means nice spring but changeable come early summer towards west.Wonder if this year will follow the script. I am getting a bit nervous post 300hrs as another possible northerly could be on cards here in central Europe with unwanted frost. Last week I had -7C for three mornings in a row! Minima only 2C higher then all winter!

I suspect the UK will go wet late spring/early summer.

During the last solar min period there tended to be a HP spell around April before a descent into unsettled during May/June.

Not really caught up on the longer range modelling with everything going on but I'll take a gander in due course. Not even sure what ENSO is up to. If it's heading to Nina then I'll have even more confidence in wet conditions returning.

Edited by CreweCold
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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
19 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I suspect the UK will go wet late spring/early summer.

During the last solar min period there tended to be a HP spell around April before a descent into unsettled during May/June.

Not really caught up on the longer range modelling with everything going on but I'll take a gander in due course. Not even sure what ENSO is up to. If it's heading to Nina then I'll have even more confidence in wet conditions returning.

Yes I haven't been looking at the longer term background signals either recently, not many posts or comments as might be expected in this respect. The PV looks like having a long slow dying death this year, rather than a sudden end, which might help prevent northern blocking from developing in late Spring, but things could change on this front.

Will take a look at ENSO, a few weeks there were hints of a summer la Nina.. will see if that's still the case.

Back to the here and now, some excellent spring weather on the cards for many, sunshine and dry weather predominating Tuesday - Friday in the south and east with some early sustained warmth, low 20's expected in SE for next 5 days, often struggle to see such conditions in June. Further north and west, rain tonight, cooler tomorrow, pleasant temps and dry weather returning Tuesday - Thursday but more cloud.

Easter period looks quite uncertain, signals that a shallow trough will move down from the NW, bringing cooler damper cloudier weather - poor timing. Longer term heights look likely to build back in again, sustaining what will have been a good 4-5 weeks of very benign dry weather. I've said many times before how mother nature often flips from sustained wet to notable lengthy dry and vice-versa, and we are seeing this again now... but for how long, a blip?

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Interesting that the models now show the chance of rain on Wednesday afternoon/evening:
 

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Details still very sketchy, but looks like some rain will be around for Easter. After then we aren’t really sure. ECM op again wants to blow up low pressure across the UK, but for the 3rd run in a row is an outlier:

image.thumb.png.40d235b10712411b12c3079abb5a672f.png

Lots to play for.

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
13 hours ago, CreweCold said:

I suspect the UK will go wet late spring/early summer.

During the last solar min period there tended to be a HP spell around April before a descent into unsettled during May/June.

Not really caught up on the longer range modelling with everything going on but I'll take a gander in due course. Not even sure what ENSO is up to. If it's heading to Nina then I'll have even more confidence in wet conditions returning.

Sounds like 2007 and, to a lesser extent, 2002 & 2015. Switch flicked in time for May.

Perhaps this year we may benefit from less northern blocking taking hold opening up the southerly train of lows?

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
23 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Sounds like 2007 and, to a lesser extent, 2002 & 2015. Switch flicked in time for May.

Perhaps this year we may benefit from less northern blocking taking hold opening up the southerly train of lows?

Long range forecast from the met office favours low heights to our north right through the summer at the moment, which would usually translate to a better summer here. Also shows below average ppn and higher temps. Fingers crossed.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

I might have not the slightest iota of interest in long-range exercises in pattern-matching (they simply do not work!) but, in the nearer, more reliable time-frame, I do find tomorrow's prospects quite encouraging:.. GFS 06Z::oldgood:

 h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
27 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Long range forecast from the met office favours low heights to our north right through the summer at the moment, which would usually translate to a better summer here. Also shows below average ppn and higher temps. Fingers crossed.

Ecm looks almost certain to be an outlier compared to other models!gfs ensembles are rock solid for the continuation of this dry weather!!not to say ecm is wrong but highly unlikely!!!amazing weather so far!!came back from egypt on the 15th of march and i dont think i have seen single drop of rain since!!!grass is starting to turn brown as well!!

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

image.thumb.gif.2fcd6acde261cb085358eccabc8b9031.gif

image.thumb.png.de994bc92a3a5f71b6b7aae00c938437.png
 

ECM and GFS at 168 (day 7). Couldn’t be much different at day 7 if you tried!

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

GFS 06Z is nae bad, at Day 9!:clapping:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Och well, a none-too-lovely end to the GFS 06Z; but it would hasten the eventual demise of the tPV, perhaps...?

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Though all that HLB wouldn't necessarily bode too well, for the Arctic ice, however...?

Edited by General Cluster
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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

12z GFS is a rip snorter - high pressure all the way. Easter still causing headaches, likely to be more unsettled with some rain around though.

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

Just saw the latest GFS run... holy moley!!! 

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