Model Output Discussion - heading into April

[Djdazzle]

ECM only looks like cooling off later in the run, which is well into FI. But it’s April, so wouldn’t be out of the ordinary.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

When is the last time we had so much high pressure within the vicinity of the UK.. Even out to day 10...perhaps becoming cooler beyond that, but that's a long way off... In the words of George Formby...... 

[Frosty.]

Looking at the GEFS 12z mean / perturbations I think there is good support for a predominantly pleasant period of weather as we head further into April with plenty of high pressure in the vicinity of the u k.

 

[Methuselah]

Good morning peeps!

Well, it could be argued that, until at least next Friday, our weather is set fair, with ample amounts of sunshine and warmer-than-average temperatures...So I'll argue it then!

    

And, even right at the end of the GFS 00Z, Knocker's woodshed lacks nefarious lurkers. Just!

    

[Mark Bayley]

Slight upgrade on the 6z, ,if its sunshine and warmth you are after (especially the further SE you are). Strong chance of 20c being broken between Tuesday and Saturday. Good week for staying in the garden!

[Methuselah]

Even as far ahead as Day 10 things on the GFS 06Z look rather spiffing...I feel a very nice spell of weather is in the offing!

    

Edited April 4, 2020 by General Cluster

[Methuselah]

What a run today's GFS 06Z is! I do so hope it's playing a blinder...But is 16 days' warmth and sun simply too good to be true?

    

It's nice to see the tPV curling iself into a ball, like a frightened hedgehog!

 

 

Edited April 4, 2020 by General Cluster

[Frosty.]

Good signs from the GEFS 6z mean / perturbations  longer term if it’s benign pleasant settled you are looking for..and let’s face it, following the wet and windy last 4 months...most of us would be happy with this!!

Edited April 4, 2020 by JON SNOW

[Mark wheeler]

Great charts , so when is the hosepipe Ban ?

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Yes Mark, that's the million dollar question, a few weeks of dry weather and the good old water board will be saying we need to be careful with our usage. That would be the icing on the cake, on top of an already dire situation!! ECM mean looks largely settled out to day 10..especially Southern areas.... And the GFS 6Z keeps us under High Pressure influence even deep into fi... A lot of water to flow under the bridge yet though.... So to speak..

[markw2680]

It’s so nice to see some decent warm and sunny weather for next week, even if the warmth don’t help with the virus at least it will make people feel better, better than wet and cool anyway. If you can get out in a garden or something I suggest we should try and enjoy it. Keep up the good work folks and stay safe 

[damianslaw]

Echoing what others have said, models showing a predominantly settled pleasant outlook - lots of dry sunny calm conditions, with temps appreciably above the April average thanks to warmer uppers moving in. NW parts will be at risk from more cloud and spells of rain at times so not a settled outlook everywhere.Was expecting the models to perhaps show a bit more oomph in the atlantic, but it looks like stronger heights will never be too far away. All quite normal for April, a time when the atlantic traditionally goes into a slumber and we see long spells of dry weather predominate.

Longer term, tentative signs the atlantic may break through in more earnest, the form horse eventually.

So lots of decent weather for getting out in the garden, excellent early growing weather as well. Pity we can't make the most of it (outdoor pursuit, sport wise etc), especially given it is coinciding with the easter week. However, it will definately be the antidote to is increasingly becoming a very 'trying time' for many. I'll say it again we are very fortunate these events are occuring now, rather than the start of depths of winter.

[mb018538]

1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

Echoing what others have said, models showing a predominantly settled pleasant outlook - lots of dry sunny calm conditions, with temps appreciably above the April average thanks to warmer uppers moving in. NW parts will be at risk from more cloud and spells of rain at times so not a settled outlook everywhere.Was expecting the models to perhaps show a bit more oomph in the atlantic, but it looks like stronger heights will never be too far away. All quite normal for April, a time when the atlantic traditionally goes into a slumber and we see long spells of dry weather predominate.

Longer term, tentative signs the atlantic may break through in more earnest, the form horse eventually.

So lots of decent weather for getting out in the garden, excellent early growing weather as well. Pity we can't make the most of it (outdoor pursuit, sport wise etc), especially given it is coinciding with the easter week. However, it will definately be the antidote to is increasingly becoming a very 'trying time' for many. I'll say it again we are very fortunate these events are occuring now, rather than the start of depths of winter.

It’ll break through eventually - even if it’s through the Easter weekend then it will have been a fairly long dry spell, and there’s no suggestion at all of a return to the washout weather of winter.

[Frosty.]

I Gorra say the ECM 0z ensemble mean looks preety good to me!

 

 

 

 

[Zak M]

Hey all.

I am liking the latest GFS run this morning, in which it shows a high sticking around for the majority of next week, bringing us some settled weather along with it, and some warm temperatures, with the odd 70F possible.

But remember, just because it is going to be warm next week doesn't mean that you should leave your home!

Stay safe everyone.

[Methuselah]

Tuesday's still looking set to be stonker. GFS 12Z permitting!

    

So a good day down on the farm beckons for Yours Truly...Just so long as my present symptoms (head full of cottonwool, runny nose, iffy throat and an ever-present desire to fall asleep) turn out to be only hay fever!?

[Allseasons-Si]

UKMO/GFS pretty splendid

at 144

get out in your garden and soak some of that vitamin D up...

 

...................................................STAY AT HOME AND STAY SAFE.

Edited April 4, 2020 by Allseasons-si

[Frosty.]

I gorra say most of the week ahead which takes us into Easter looks predominantly fine and warm according to the Gfs 12z operational so at least there is some good news although COVID-19 continues to show a very black cloud over the U.K. for the foreseeable future, indeed across the globe. 

[Djdazzle]

Would be a miracle to get an Easter weekend like last year! We can hope though . .. .

[Methuselah]

So not too bad an end to the GFS 12Z? Could that be the 'unsettled' weather suggested by Those Who Cannot Be Named? If so, at least there's no hint of a pesky -NAO!!

    

[I remember Atlantic 252]

46 minutes ago, JON SNOW said:

I gorra say most of the week ahead which takes us into Easter looks predominantly fine and warm according to the Gfs 12z operational so at least there is some good news although COVID-19 continues to show a very black cloud over the U.K. for the foreseeable future, indeed across the globe. 

Jon, we all hope! I want to move time on 4 months or so, but warm days go quicker than crap ones, so at least something to move time on quicker

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Lovely ECM folks... If I could build you alla Garden... Trust me, I would... I may get the mixing decks out on the patio... And get all the neighbourhood raving for a bit of cardio.. I've been well stressed lately folks... But tonight... I feel a bit better... You know what I mean.

[Gowon]

15 minutes ago, Frost HoIIow said:

You can step outside as the virus isn't absolutely everywhere - nothing stopping people sitting in the garden if they have one. Boosting Vitamin D3 for your immunity can only be a good thing.

Indeed.. I've decided I'm not going to be Mr grumps and let some selfish morons get me down, so I've been enjoying the slightly warmer temps today and looking forward to more of the same.

[Man With Beard]

An absolute spring cracker from the ECM this evening. 18C likely to be exceeded on all 10 days of the run starting tomorrow, and several days threatening the 20C mark. Peak still currently projected as Thursday (22-23C possible using my old adjustments to raw data, yes, back to that chestnut again   ), but I think this might be subject to change with small adjustments to the overall picture likely from midweek onwards.

[Methuselah]

We could do worse than end-up like the end of this morning's GFS 00Z...? And I'm sure we will! But, anywho, I'm liking the heat away to the SSE. Could that be a hangover from last summer's anomalous IOD?

    

Or, could it be that I'm more accustomed to noticing floating pieces of PV-remnants (from behind the sofa) to have noticed it before?