Model Output Discussion - heading into April

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Surely we deserve a little break now folks... Well Sunday appears to be that day of salvation! Warm and plenty of sunny spells... Dare I say it... The magical 70F being breached!! If you have a garden, then fire up those barbys... You deserve a treat... If your unfortunate enough to not have one, then at least a good chance to go for a walk or a bike ride, and at least for the day try and forget all the stress that is building up for many of us... Breath some of that fresh air, and invigorate yourselves... Whatever you decide to do, stay safe. 

Edited April 2, 2020 by Mattwolves

[Frosty.]

There’s some nice spring warmth and high pressure bringing some fine spells on this evenings ECM 12z operational.

ps..sorry the charts are not all in the correct order.

Edited April 2, 2020 by JON SNOW

[feb1991blizzard]

ECM 240 a little interesting.

[Allseasons-Si]

13 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

ECM 240 a little interesting.

It is but the mean looks better if it's fine and settled you are looking for

whether this hp cell retrogresses further west is one to look out for,if so,it will bring cooler weather from a northerly quadrant

i am a damn right coldy just like the most of us on here but my patience has ran out now and i am throwing the towel in

 

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, Allseasons-si said:

It is but the mean looks better if it's fine and settled you are looking for

whether this hp cell retrogresses further west is one to look out for,if so,it will bring cooler weather from a northerly quadrant

i am a damn right coldy just like the most of us on here but my patience has ran out now and i am throwing the towel in

 

Yes - the mean is poor for cold - proper cold anyway.

[Allseasons-Si]

15 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes - the mean is poor for cold - proper cold anyway.

That's the reason i didn't say warm after the fine and settled words i put above,it looks like a cool high in the position it is in,if it was further east,it would be a plume type scenario,but this is ten days away and we know how fickle models can be that far out

looking back at the 500mb mean heights again in animation there does look to be some sort of retrogression to the hp cell from east to west

EPS Model

WWW.TROPICALTIDBITS.COM

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500mb Height Anomaly

i hope not though as i want some nice fine,settled warm weather now

Edit:just to add,doesn't the MJO phases 8/1 entail heights in the Atlantic?

gefs/ecm.

P.S @Mattwolves that BBQ gif made me chuckle.

Edited April 2, 2020 by Allseasons-si

[MATTWOLVES 3]

It's a settled end from the ECM mean that's for sure. We do need a little dry weather after the recent floods and let's face it, non stop rain wouldn't be doing much for our mental health in the current crisis. 

@Allseasons-si your gif brought back some memories... That's what folk normally do to me around here when I start rabitting... Throw a towel over me head mate..

[damianslaw]

13 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

It's a settled end from the ECM mean that's for sure. We do need a little dry weather after the recent floods and let's face it, non stop rain wouldn't be doing much for our mental health in the current crisis. 

@Allseasons-si your gif brought back some memories... That's what folk normally do to me around here when I start rabitting... Throw a towel over me head mate..

Yes signs we may see some generally fine settled weather first part of April, but there is quite a bit of fluidity at the moment, atlantic still has some oomph to it,and I feel heights will always be under pressure from a quick collapse.

[DogToffee]

2 hours ago, Mattwolves said:

It's a settled end from the ECM mean that's for sure. We do need a little dry weather after the recent floods and let's face it, non stop rain wouldn't be doing much for our mental health in the current crisis. 

@Allseasons-si your gif brought back some memories... That's what folk normally do to me around here when I start rabitting... Throw a towel over me head mate..

I'm quite the opposite, sad to miss the brief opportunity for cold, sad for warm weather when stuck indoors unable to enjoy it.

[Allseasons-Si]

OK,the op and control are going cold towards the end of the run

not that these will verify but they are more likely to happen at this time of the year,i would retract my towel for a final fling in hope that we will see some better weather afterwards.

of note,there is some spread in fl so who knows what is going to happen.

 

Edited April 2, 2020 by Allseasons-si

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 0z operational is advertising a generally benign outlook with plenty of high pressure and spring warmth at times..I like it!

 

[Methuselah]

Wednesday afternoon could be a cracker!

    

[Methuselah]

What a lovely plumescence for the 14th!

    

[Zak M]

A stonker it is for the 06z!!

[Neil Harris]

4 hours ago, JON SNOW said:

The Gfs 0z operational is advertising a generally benign outlook with plenty of high pressure and spring warmth at times..I like it!

 

Are we looking at a repeat of 2007?

[Paul]

Nice in depth blog by @Jo Farrow on the lack of flight data at the moment and the difficulties that poses for the forecasting models. Well worth a read.

Weather forecasting concerns as number of aircraft observations plummet - Blog by Jo Farrow

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

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Changes in the weather world as observations reduce from aircraft and on land in the time of global pandemic. Less initial data to input into the computer models. AMDAR AIREP

 

[snowray]

Very warm outlook on the ICON?

[Methuselah]

GFS 12Z for Thursday looks spiffing!

    

[Methuselah]

Looks as if the dregs of of the tPV are going to play ball...?

    

Though I wouldn't worry to much were a west-based -NAO develop, further on down the line. Anything that keeps the <-5C uppers at an arm's length, is fine by me!

[Allseasons-Si]

The gfs ends on a high note

the gefs mean getting above the 0c isotherm line too

may it continue

 

 

 

Edited April 3, 2020 by Allseasons-si

[Man With Beard]

Going to be a pleasant surprise on Sunday (if you don't like it cold)

  

Taking into account how temperatures are usually reflected on models after the spring equinox, I'd have thought 20C might be a possibility. I would normally recommend suncream but in these circumstances it's more appropriate to recommending opening the windows or turning the central heating off...

Generally mild to warm into next week, looking pretty certain now, first attempt at the low 20s on the GFS coming up.

  

[Britneyfan]

Oh I wonder if we could hit 22 or 23 in the upcoming week 

[Djdazzle]

4 minutes ago, Britneyfan said:

Oh I wonder if we could hit 22 or 23 in the upcoming week 

Think that’s highly likely looking at the output.

[mb018538]

5 minutes ago, Britneyfan said:

Oh I wonder if we could hit 22 or 23 in the upcoming week 

Not completely out of the question, looks like 21 should be achieved midweek for sure. A great spell of weather coming up....I hope everyone is sensible and don’t go flocking to parks or the coast a la Mother’s Day.

[Allseasons-Si]

Well if the ECM and the JMA are to come to fruition then make the most of this Sunday and next week as these look quiet cool runs to me

that's quiet some amplified ridge in the Atlantic,be interesting to see the eps in a bit.

will i have to retract my....