Model Output Discussion - heading into April

[damianslaw]

On 30/03/2020 at 18:51, stodge said:

 

A return to the SW airflow by end of the weekend and into next week - much milder for all, but also for NW and west parts, wet and cloudy weather, doesn't enthuse me, or improve my mood. 

[stainesbloke]

wrong thread

Edited March 31, 2020 by stainesbloke

[CheesepuffScott]

Looking like a taste of spring for many on Sunday, 15°C - 18°C... with a southerly wind, cooler along south coast.

Monday will be cooler and wetter, with rain moving in from the Atlantic. Eastern areas perhaps holding onto the highest temperatures

 

[Zak M]

Yes please

[Methuselah]

If it were not for an inconvenient truth (it's at T+384!) the synoptics below would even more a 'thing of beauty' than they actually are:

    

However, just in case, by some extraordinary quirk of fate, the GFS 00Z's prediction is incorrect, it might be better to keep an open mind?

Edited April 1, 2020 by General Cluster

[Tim Bland]

1 hour ago, General Cluster said:

If it were not for an inconvenient truth (it's at T+384!) the synoptics below would even more a 'thing of beauty' than they actually are:

    

However, just in case, by some extraordinary quirk of fate, the GFS 00Z's prediction is incorrect, it might be better to keep an open mind?

It’s becoming a trend now so fingers crossed

[johnholmes]

Wed 1 April summary of the 500 mb anomaly charts

The 3 do now look fairly similar, first ec-gfs, both similar with a large trough well west and ridging e of uk; s’ern Europe clipping uk into n norway/nw Russia and acroos to n’ern Greenland, giving a s of w contour flow into the uk

Noaa is fairly similar to the two main features positions, trough and ridging, not as +ve with heights in the ridge so far.

The 3 have been edging towards this over the past few days so it ius beginning to look like this sort of 500 mb pattern will be with us in 4-5 days time and possibly last for 5-6 days, possibly longer as the 8-14 Noaa keeps a pretty similar pattern.

This would imply uk weather a mostly coming from southern areas of the states rather than northern and then in a wide arc south into the Atlantic before heading towards the uk. Not totally settled by any means but with less chance of cold spells. Maybe the nw-se split that so often occurs. So more changeable in the nw and less so and now and then warmer in the se?

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

 

[Zak M]

Obviously a long way out but I am liking the looks of this!

   

[mb018538]

45 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Obviously a long way out but I am liking the looks of this!

   

So long as the trough holds far enough west we could be in a decent spot. If it all moves east and we get closer to the trough, could be wet and windy again. At the moment it looks more likely that the trough stays at arms length. NOAA 8-14 500mb anomalies supporting this too.

[Zak M]

Jackpot! 

[mb018538]

6z is a nice run - plenty of settled weather around, and some decent temperatures in the mid the high teens. Can’t ask for much more in the first half of April. Yes please!

I should also add it’s a warm outlier in the back half....so maybe don’t get too giddy. Yet.

Edited April 1, 2020 by mb018538

[Zak M]

I'm liking the ECM!

[Djdazzle]

That’s this morning’s run. Hopefully the 12z will be similar!

[mb018538]

UKMO and ECM look great at 144, as does the ECM from 144-240. GFS not quite as good, but a bit of an ensemble outlier. The first half of April is shaping up pretty nicely at the moment. 20c possible on Sunday in the E/SE.

[Frosty.]

I’m liking the ECM trend, I’m warming to it..indeed we would all be warming if this or something similar verifies!

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

I think Karl, the mean also backs it up. High pressure looking well in control out to day 10...i only hope folks remember the social distancing rules. Its times like these when I wished everyone on here had access to back gardens.. At least then they could get out and Potter. But weather wise it's looking pretty decent.. Stay safe.. 

[damianslaw]

Models in the reliable and beyond in fair agreement today. High pressure nosing in over the weekend, enabling much warmer uppers to invade the country, first bit of proper warmth of the season for SE corner. Atlantic quickly knocking on its heals with the jet aligned SW-NE and the atlantic trough anchoring down. Bouts of wind and rain for western and NW parts only glancing south and east as heights hold.

Longer term - all depends on how far east the pattern becomes, there looks to be quite a bit of energy in the atlantic still, despite signs of heights becoming more robust to our south and east - one scenario that could happen is the trough becomes unstuck, but will it be far enough to the west to prevent bouts/pulses of rain moving through the UK? Could be that classic NW-SE divide, where the north and west is plagued by rain and dank grey skies, and the east and south holds on to warmer drier weather - a common pattern in summer, but not so much in April.

April is our most fickle month, when sudden flips and switches can occur, just as we are about to see on Saturday, from an northerly to a southerly in 24 hours.

 

Edited April 1, 2020 by damianslaw

[CheesepuffScott]

On the GFS 12z.. it certainly looks warmer with the odd band of rain from the Atlantic at times, over the next 10 days. Nonetheless, doesn't look like much looking at the totals for the next 10 days. 

After then, the run seems to show HP slipping away and it becoming more HP dominated but this keeps chopping and changing, although I have not looked at the ensembles. There been some recent runs showing a warm, settled Easter period..!

[Djdazzle]

Busy on here . . . .

Anyway, the 00z runs continue the same basic theme of a warm up from Sunday. Unsettled blip on Monday, then HP pushing up from the south. The ECM, in particular, is a nice run into the semi-reliable.

[Methuselah]

It's hardly the antidote to COVID-19, I know, but the GFS 06Z for Day 8 looks okay!!!

    

[Frosty.]

The chances of this verifying don’t compute but I like it anyway!

[Methuselah]

And lastly, at T+384....So, place your bets: It's...a 'last-chance northerly'!

    

Nailded!

[summer blizzard]

Both the GFS and Euro suggest that the UK will see a pressure build between days 5-10. It looks a little messy in terms of a stray dead front at day 7 and potentially one around day 9 however broadly they both agree on the wider picture. Uppers also look mild so where the cloud is not around (central/southern England seems best) high teens are probable. 

[PiscesStar]

4 hours ago, General Cluster said:

And lastly, at T+384....So, place your bets: It's...a 'last-chance northerly'!

    

Nailded!

Nailded indeed not... The weather makes. A. Fool. Of us all

[Allseasons-Si]

What is the ICON up too,swan lake!!!