Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model Output Discussion - heading into April


Paul

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

Hey all. A warm pattern is starting to show for next week, meaning that warmer and perhaps more settled weather is possible, with temperatures in the high teens likely.

Some warmer and more settled weather could be possible from Easter Sunday onwards... if this verifies!

871033226_h500slp(17).thumb.png.e69b5c3f61b5be62a3d467e8f4a464c4.png

1958800062_h500slp(18).thumb.png.ee4527d09b64d2881820c834135d1874.png

1698784282_h500slp(19).thumb.png.126cdbd20cee361554b072c6a4d65acd.png

Edited by Zak M
  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Well, it's the last day of Smarch, and all is set fair for a stonking day on the farm!:oldgood:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Okay, so it'll nae what you call 'hot'...but polytunnels do have their own micro-climate!:yahoo:

Ooh aaargh!?‍? 

Edited by General Cluster
  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
12 hours ago, LRD said:

Incredible that a small retrogressing low in Southern Greenland's vicinity can turn what appears to be a nailed on N'ly...

image.thumb.png.c4a90d4ae59439554ae45a49b226598c.png

...into this, just 24 hours later

image.thumb.png.743ee04e03859bdcd48c4b68fdc00225.png

If this was Dec, Jan or Feb (or even March) I'd be pretty annoyed. And then a (very) long fetch SW'ly another 48 hours on

image.thumb.png.cf974f8de4b1cd8fd7aa489ef44fd0c5.png

Unbelievable turn around Jeff

Coldies shouldn't despair too much, though, as there is another ghost cold chart to chase at 240 on the ECM!

 

Yes thanks for explaining how one tiny low can ruin everything regarding the Northerly,are we jinxed regarding cold weather .

However last year Northern Blocking controlled much of the first couple of months of summer ,like it was laughing at us ! as obviously it’s no good having these set-ups in the summer months.!

Going forward I hope we have a long  dry summer so everyone can enjoy being out and about hopefully by the summer months.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
12 hours ago, Portsmouth Sun said:

I don’t understand why certain people on here cling to 10 day charts as gospel. Do you not understand the real world. In the reliable the south looks like warming up a treat. 

This is where the use of the Anomaly charts comes into play.

When they are consistent, they are very accurate in determining the most likely pattern of ridging and troughing. Time and time again this winter when some operational runs hint at an Easterly, getting peoples hopes up, there was no anomaly support, therefore the chances of them becoming reality were very low.

View the Anomaly charts, then match the nearest operational GFS or/and ECM for the 6-14 day period. Doing this you CAN place faith in day 10 charts to a degree. You can spot a genuine cold spell or a genuine warm spell, of course you cannot determine the detail but you can get a good idea.

  • Like 5
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire
3 hours ago, SLEETY said:

 

Yes thanks for explaining how one tiny low can ruin everything regarding the Northerly,are we jinxed regarding cold weather .

However last year Northern Blocking controlled much of the first couple of months of summer ,like it was laughing at us ! as obviously it’s no good having these set-ups in the summer months.!

Going forward I hope we have a long  dry summer so everyone can enjoy being out and about hopefully by the summer months.

Nah, we're not jinxed

It's just that the current long wave pattern allows these miniscule, insignificant looking lows to cause a cold looking scenario to collapse. If the atmosphere, generally, was conducive then that low wouldn't be there to scupper a cold evolution OR that low wouldn't have behaved a certain way

Hopefully late November to late Feb 20-21's long wave pattern will allow cold patterns to evolve with no drama as in many instances between 2009-2013. However, 'something' is happening to make the long wave pattern unfriendly to colder patterns/scenarios - even the northern blocking of July 2019 still ended up with a very warm month for England and Wales

Edited by LRD
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire
2 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

This is where the use of the Anomaly charts comes into play.

When they are consistent, they are very accurate in determining the most likely pattern of ridging and troughing. Time and time again this winter when some operational runs hint at an Easterly, getting peoples hopes up, there was no anomaly support, therefore the chances of them becoming reality were very low.

View the Anomaly charts, then match the nearest operational GFS or/and ECM for the 6-14 day period. Doing this you CAN place faith in day 10 charts to a degree. You can spot a genuine cold spell or a genuine warm spell, of course you cannot determine the detail but you can get a good idea.

Yes, I'm not usually a fan of anomaly charts but those that you and John Holmes use are a good tool. Have you got a link to those please?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

Hang on a sec

NOAA=

 

ECMWF-GFS=

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

 

Edited by johnholmes
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

I've neen using them for 7 or 8 years, they have to be used with great care and one has to remember that they are for 500 mb. What they do help with though, as mushy commented, is the general pattern at that level. This can give a good idea of the type of weather in general, settled, unsettled, changeable, warm, cold etc. The suggestion by mushy of, IF they are consistent over a few days and with one another of trying to match the synoptic charts in the 6-10 day period is also worth looking at. Like I say used with great care they can be a big help in what the overall weather pattern is likely to be. I did show some statistics several years ago comparing them with EC and GFS at the 10 day range. They were almost without fail much better than the synoptic charts. A value of 70% generally winter and summer compared to values below 40-50% most times with the synoptic patterns. Areas of poor return are

1) Lack of continuity over several days and with one another

2) the Northern Hemisphere change over periods; winter to summer and summer to winter

30 The Atlantic hurricane season

 

Good luck

 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
58 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

I've neen using them for 7 or 8 years, they have to be used with great care and one has to remember that they are for 500 mb. What they do help with though, as mushy commented, is the general pattern at that level. This can give a good idea of the type of weather in general, settled, unsettled, changeable, warm, cold etc. The suggestion by mushy of, IF they are consistent over a few days and with one another of trying to match the synoptic charts in the 6-10 day period is also worth looking at. Like I say used with great care they can be a big help in what the overall weather pattern is likely to be. I did show some statistics several years ago comparing them with EC and GFS at the 10 day range. They were almost without fail much better than the synoptic charts. A value of 70% generally winter and summer compared to values below 40-50% most times with the synoptic patterns. Areas of poor return are

1) Lack of continuity over several days and with one another

2) the Northern Hemisphere change over periods; winter to summer and summer to winter

30 The Atlantic hurricane season

 

Good luck

 

I think the reason many dont like them, is that they prefer the "rollercoaster" of options the ops throw up. The anomalies being the mean flatten those peaks and troughs of excitement the rollercoaster provides.

Each to their own of course, but personally, i prefer a realistic view whatever it might be. As a blogger, accuracy is more important then excitement built on the more extremes the ops throw up. If i can produce reasonably accurate blogs based on the research John did, then anyone can if they put their mind to it.



 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
On 29/03/2020 at 19:08, SLEETY said:

Don't think any model should be trusted with the lack of flight data at the moment. 

I doubt any model is anywhere near nailing the end of next week yet. 

See the model tweet thread ;)

Edited by Griff
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
12 minutes ago, Griff said:

See the model tweet thread ;)

Huge drop down. So maybe those 5 days charts are way off still. Interesting... 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

This is the ECMWF objective output regarding the marked decrease in aircraft reports

WWW.ECMWF.INT

One aspect of the COVID-19 pandemic has been a reduction in the aircraft-based observations available to weather prediction centres at the start of forecasts. At ECMWF, aircraft reports are second...

 

I have not found any output from NOAA on the subject

I suggest we keep an objective approach rather than whenever the model does not show what anyone wants jumping on the lack of data as the reason?

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
9 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

This is the ECMWF objective output regarding the marked decrease in aircraft reports

WWW.ECMWF.INT

One aspect of the COVID-19 pandemic has been a reduction in the aircraft-based observations available to weather prediction centres at the start of forecasts. At ECMWF, aircraft reports are second...

 

I have not found any output from NOAA on the subject

I suggest we keep an objective approach rather than whenever the model does not show what anyone wants jumping on the lack of data as the reason?

Spoil sport... I mean, agreed! 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
8 hours ago, Snowfish2 said:

Whst u growing in there?? 

Loads of things, mate, and many that I'd previously never even heard of! But at least I now have my 'Key Worker' letter...Just in case the local constabulary might want to put me in gaol..?:oldgrin:

And it was a stonker: partly cloudy this morning; unbroken sunshine for the afternoon...Tomorrow?

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Good enough for me...probably! :oldgood:

 

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire

Apologies if this is the wrong place to share this, or if it has been shared before:

 

 

"A fantastic new source for accessing UKMO #metoffice global #weather model forecast output as well as EC/GFS data

#wind & other variables can also be plotted"

Screenshot_20200331-175944.jpg

Edited by Mapantz
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
9 minutes ago, Alexis said:

Just get a blank page?

Using chrome on android, works here. 

 

Try... 

 

beta.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/maps-and-charts/enthusiast/#?bbox=%5B%5B-54.1624339680678,-72.07031250000001%5D,%5B85.02070774312594,72.77343750000001%5D%5D&model=ukmo-um17&layer=mean-sea-level-presure&timestep=1585720800000

 

Add http:// at the front

Edited by Griff
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
2 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

I've edited the link in the post.

Thanks ... 

 

Actually you just broke it

 

 

BETA.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

 

Edited by Griff
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

I like the GFS 12Z at T+384!:oldlaugh:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

A nice Atlantic trough and HP over Europe...Nailded!:oldgood::crazy::oldgrin:

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
3 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

First 70F of the year if the 12z runs are correct.

just what's needed now, kills viruses etc

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...