Model Output Discussion - heading into April

[Gowon]

12 minutes ago, snowray said:

Gfs 12z ens are out, full agreement there with the op, things generally getting milder. Although the other day gfs had full agreement for a lengthy cold spell in the UK and -12/-13c uppers, not just today's one day blip.

 

Has this happened before or is this due to lack of data?

[snowray]

4 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

Has this happened before or is this due to lack of data?

Good question, not sure about that. 

Lack of data on these computer models, and the lack of human input, as far as I am aware at any rate, will make quite a difference. If the run starts even slightly out, it will be amplified all the way through making the errors lager and larger.

Edited March 29, 2020 by snowray

[SLEETY]

Don't think any model should be trusted with the lack of flight data at the moment. 

I doubt any model is anywhere near nailing the end of next week yet. 

[Griff]

21 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Don't think any model should be trusted with the lack of flight data at the moment. 

I doubt any model is anywhere near nailing the end of next week yet. 

UKMO looks colder than ECMWF at 120 hours, but not as much as the ICON. 

[Gowon]

30 minutes ago, snowray said:

Good question, not sure about that. 

Lack of data on these computer models, and the lack of human input, as far as I am aware at any rate, will make quite a difference. If the run starts even slightly out, it will be amplified all the way through making the errors lager and larger.

Hmmm.. What's happening here then?

The ECM is more amplified at 144

[snowray]

18 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Don't think any model should be trusted with the lack of flight data at the moment. 

I doubt any model is anywhere near nailing the end of next week yet. 

I guess stick to the fax charts where there is human input, but lots of drama right now which ever way you want to look at it.

ECM taking a somewhat different route compared to its 00z run.

 

[snowray]

2 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

Hmmm.. What's happening here then?

The ECM is more amplified at 144

This... colder run alright, similar to the GEM?

 

 

 

[Gowon]

Looks like the GEM.

[Griff]

I know the time scale isn't quite equal, but interesting nevertheless. 

I'm still the new guy but that looks a lot like a move towards the Icon. 

Both bring cold from the north into Scotland from Thursday. 

 

Edited March 29, 2020 by Griff

[Gowon]

Just heard on Countryfile weather that this is the strongest area of HP over the UK for over a 100 years!

And they also mentioned end of next week it's going to warm up.. I bet it doesn't.. lol

[Allseasons-Si]

I am starting to see amplification in the models appearing

the GFS tried it at 180>

then the GEM from 144

now the ECM from 144

now where did that come from.

ECM at 240...

 

[Allseasons-Si]

The JMA at 120.

scratches head

[Griff]

3 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

The JMA at 120.

scratches head

Goes off on one afterwards, but I presume 120 looked different on the previous run? 

(looks like it copied the icon's homework ) 

Edited March 29, 2020 by Griff

[SLEETY]

Everything looks dodgy after 96 hours if you ask me, ecm so different in its latter frames compared to 12 hours ago that's its laughable

you can see how the flight data issues are causing problems with the models. 

[Dorsetbred]

1 hour ago, D.V.R said:

Just heard on Countryfile weather that this is the strongest area of HP over the UK for over a 100 years!

And they also mentioned end of next week it's going to warm up.. I bet it doesn't.. lol

Suggestion most certainly was almost a warm surge from the south for next weekend, seemingly at odds with suggestion of colder possibilities...

Edited March 29, 2020 by Dorsetbred

[Griff]

GFS sticking to its guns 

[Scorcher]

3 hours ago, D.V.R said:

Just heard on Countryfile weather that this is the strongest area of HP over the UK for over a 100 years!

And they also mentioned end of next week it's going to warm up.. I bet it doesn't.. lol

Plenty of evidence for a warm up into next weekend- the GFS 18Z shows the possibilities quite clearly.

Also it's important to remember that the BBC have access to data that is not in the public domain- so don't be surprised if all the op runs are on board with a warm up in the morning.

[Allseasons-Si]

Oh no not again,i cannot take this anymore

anyone for another chase

 

[Gowon]

It looks like the Countryfile weather was right.. All the models agree with the warm up next week.

Waiting on the ECM now.

[Griff]

32 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

It looks like the Countryfile weather was right.. All the models agree with the warm up next week.

Waiting on the ECM now.

Well that changed quickly just as it looked as if the Icon was on to something. Sneaky! 

[SLEETY]

Well cold rarely wins out anymore ,so should not be surprised by the outcome now,even data issues made no difference in the end.

The hunt for a true Northerly outbreak continues,probably appear in the height  of summer when it’s utterly pointless,when fingers crossed people will be able to go out and about by then.

[mushymanrob]

Looking highly likely that a return to "normal" British weather after this quiet week.

Milder, even warm at times, but with the return to unsettled conditions with spells of rain. The usual NW/SE variation likely with the NW missing out on the best of the pleasant Springtime conditions.

 

[snowray]

6 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Well cold rarely wins out anymore ,so should not be surprised by the outcome now,even data issues made no difference in the end.

The hunt for a true Northerly outbreak continues,probably appear in the height  of summer when it’s utterly pointless,when fingers crossed people will be able to go out and about by then.

Yes fingers crossed alright.

Whichever model that shows the less cold solution for the UK, even if it's there on it's own is usually right. Anyway hopefully we can now see things warming up and I can get on with the the gardening and planing some crops.

[Methuselah]

Well, it's a T+384 chart, I know (to define detail is thus pointless!); but two things stand out for me: the main tPV remnant is stuck around Greenland, and Southern Europe is warming nicely:

    

[mb018538]

GFS looks good this morning - from Sunday there is a stretch of 4 days with temps in the mid to upper teens. Could even squeak a 20c out too. Bring on the warmth, we’re well out of the cold season now. Start the chase again in November/December.....time to look for warmth and storms now folks, it’s April in 2 days!