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Model Output Discussion - heading into April


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

Surely the lack of flight data is going to make difference, the last few ecm runs have been virtually identical upto 168 hours that doesn't normally happen with that model, you can check that on metiociel. 

Edited by SLEETY
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Posted
  • Location: Deepest, darkest, TROPICAL Swansea
  • Location: Deepest, darkest, TROPICAL Swansea

Saw this a couple of days ago from ECMWF........

WWW.ECMWF.INT

One aspect of the COVID-19 pandemic has been a reduction in the aircraft-based observations available to weather prediction centres at the...

 

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

All i am gona say is if there was a time things might change for the better in terms of the cold and that northerly then i think it has to be on the 12zs!!and the icon has to sticks to its guns as well!!if it dont then i think that will be it for the northerly especially considering its only a 120 hours away!!

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
22 minutes ago, WelshSnowFan said:

Saw this a couple of days ago from ECMWF........

WWW.ECMWF.INT

One aspect of the COVID-19 pandemic has been a reduction in the aircraft-based observations available to weather prediction centres at the...

 

A very interesting read, with what one might expect, the most impact, where most jets fly, around where the major jet is USA-Atlantic-Europe-Asia-USA. Get the upper air wrong and it is even more difficult to get the surface weather correct. I've sent an e mail to UK Met so hope to get their response. Mind you no longer got any contacts in there so may not get a reply. Also interesting the note re perhaps trying to get additional radio-sondes released. Not sure how that might work as the sites are largely fixed so I would imagine any increase would be in frequency not positions.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
8 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

A very interesting read, with what one might expect, the most impact, where most jets fly, around where the major jet is USA-Atlantic-Europe-Asia-USA. Get the upper air wrong and it is even more difficult to get the surface weather correct. I've sent an e mail to UK Met so hope to get their response. Mind you no longer got any contacts in there so may not get a reply. Also interesting the note re perhaps trying to get additional radio-sondes released. Not sure how that might work as the sites are largely fixed so I would imagine any increase would be in frequency not positions.

I have not heard if effecting balloon data though, just airplane reports for the ECM so it's probably effecting all of the models to a certain extent. It will be interesting to see if the Met Office get back to you about this.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
23 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

A very interesting read, with what one might expect, the most impact, where most jets fly, around where the major jet is USA-Atlantic-Europe-Asia-USA. Get the upper air wrong and it is even more difficult to get the surface weather correct. I've sent an e mail to UK Met so hope to get their response. Mind you no longer got any contacts in there so may not get a reply. Also interesting the note re perhaps trying to get additional radio-sondes released. Not sure how that might work as the sites are largely fixed so I would imagine any increase would be in frequency not positions.

You have probably noted that there is apparently a full UK radiosonde programme at midday these days. As far as I'm aware stations other than Camborne/Lerwick was always optional depending on the synoptic situation. That certainly wouldn't be the case at the moment

I believe Paul posted that ECMWF notice a couple of days ago

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

@Griff

Still going at 144hrs

iconnh-0-144.thumb.png.f30156294d629996c2033d3cbc8f239d.pngiconnh-1-144.thumb.png.b1c889ff40ad9b8d7a8079b8c60e23c5.png

if we do get this northerly,i am hoping for some nice fine warm weather after it.

Edit:this was the ICON from two days ago at 180

iconnh-0-180.thumb.png.c6e20ee83e5888445f95918e6e0248e2.pngiconnh-1-180.thumb.png.26053dfc764fc4c33cbd53c1bb1162c7.png

so consistent from the ICON.

 

 

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

@Griff

Still going at 144hrs

iconnh-0-144.thumb.png.f30156294d629996c2033d3cbc8f239d.pngiconnh-1-144.thumb.png.b1c889ff40ad9b8d7a8079b8c60e23c5.png

if we do get this northerly,i am hoping for some nice fine warm weather after it.

 

I was expecting to see it starting to mix out the colder air from the north with warmer from the Atlantic and west

 

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

ICON 180

1378044876_iconnh-0-180(1).thumb.png.33d82b9333ad50e2f15b76482ea0ad1a.png736652979_iconnh-1-180(1).thumb.png.b386d26342ca6d76d929432f640a791e.png

so a cold run from the ICON then,what will gfs say to this?

 

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

I'm not fussed regarding the cold right now.. We lost our chance for meaningful cold a long time ago... I'm hoping that with an improvement of conditions and warmer settled conditions, could mean that most viruses tend to slow down and reduce quite alot as we approach Summer proper. Here are a few decent outcomes from the GFS 6Z...

gens-2-1-264.png

gens-2-0-252.png

gens-3-1-348.png

gens-3-0-360.png

gens-5-0-276.png

gens-5-1-264.png

gens-9-1-360.png

gens-10-0-288.png

gens-10-1-288.png

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Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
26 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

ICON 180

1378044876_iconnh-0-180(1).thumb.png.33d82b9333ad50e2f15b76482ea0ad1a.png736652979_iconnh-1-180(1).thumb.png.b386d26342ca6d76d929432f640a791e.png

so a cold run from the ICON then,what will gfs say to this?

 

GFS no change... 

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
2 minutes ago, Griff said:

Anyone know what the GFS ensembles, mean etc are up to? 

Op seems very consistent. 

Surely ICON will have to come into line soon.

Here's the UKMO.     

 

UN144-21.gif

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Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
1 minute ago, snowray said:

Surely ICON will have to come into line soon.

Here's the UKMO.     

 

UN144-21.gif

You'd think, wouldn't you? 

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

great looking icon,bit progressive by ukmo I think,the 96 hour chart looked promising then just 48 hours later everything has collapsed on top of itself

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
2 hours ago, snowray said:

I have not heard if effecting balloon data though, just airplane reports for the ECM so it's probably effecting all of the models to a certain extent. It will be interesting to see if the Met Office get back to you about this.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
36 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

 

Thanks KW.

Wow, look at all that cold air just to our east again on the GEM, is it really April or am I in a time warp?

 

gemnh-0-186.png

gem-1-186.png

gem-1-192.png

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

Gfs 12z ens are out, full agreement there with the op, things generally getting milder. Although the other day gfs had full agreement for a lengthy cold spell in the UK and -12/-13c uppers, not just today's one day blip.

 

graphe_ens3.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts

Thankfully the big 3 all manage to deflect the 4 degrees and sleet shower fest away from us. What happens next depends where that high pressure to our South goes. ECM goes too far east which invites the Atlantic in, GFS is just about west enough to have us on a southerly, and though UKMO doesn't go out far enough, it looks like the high pressure is in a better position to give us sunny weather with decent temperatures like last week. That's a great 144 chart.

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Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl

Here's the UKMO, ICON, GFS, GEM at 144h.

The GFS and the UKMO looks quite similar but the GEM and especially the ICON keeps it more amplified around southern Greenland.

Lets wait and see what the ECM churns out but I don't think we'll know how this will evolve for a few days.

image.thumb.png.aa5778df63d2091f4e59a5c91d084c0b.pngimage.thumb.png.cc952c0f999b40f5acd9d376dec67104.pngimage.thumb.png.f0b5220a12e6a31a2879ef893a7182d2.pngimage.thumb.png.19908d5310387b4086d7ab9200f39976.png

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
2 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

Here's the UKMO, ICON, GFS, GEM at 144h.

The GFS and the UKMO looks quite similar but the GEM and especially the ICON keeps it more amplified around southern Greenland.

Lets wait and see what the ECM churns out but I don't think we'll know how this will evolve for a few days.

image.thumb.png.aa5778df63d2091f4e59a5c91d084c0b.pngimage.thumb.png.cc952c0f999b40f5acd9d376dec67104.pngimage.thumb.png.f0b5220a12e6a31a2879ef893a7182d2.pngimage.thumb.png.19908d5310387b4086d7ab9200f39976.png

Yes lets wait and see what the ECM turns up, it would be shocking if the little ICON won the day over the big boys. It has in fact performed pretty well on occasions, used to run very closely with the ECM but it's doing more of it's own thing these days. They will probably all merge into some sort of middle ground as usual.

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