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Model Output Discussion - heading into April


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
4 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Come to Daddy! h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png :yahoo:

A bit of an early plume that!

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
53 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Looking like tomorrows high will be a record breaker for March.

Anything above 1049.9 will be a new monthly record.

24-515UK_jmn5.thumb.gif.76fe6125217b91960765ea35f8396907.gif

and yet midlands and the E/SE look like seeing rain

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
3 minutes ago, Don said:

Close but keeps the cold at bay from the UK.

GEM is running with the GFS....gfsnh-0-156.thumb.png.4b639b36941d305e00c258c85dd5bc15.png

So its GEM & GFS,     V     UKMO & ICON,

Lets see who the ECM backs.

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
7 minutes ago, snowray said:

GEM is running with the GFS....gfsnh-0-156.thumb.png.4b639b36941d305e00c258c85dd5bc15.png

So its GEM & GFS,     V     UKMO & ICON,

Lets see who the ECM backs.

 

 

Today has been a cold shock to the system compared to the glorious sunshine all week. I get the feeling we're in for some middle ground cold damp gloomy weather, neither satisfying proper cold or early warmth seekers

Edited by Griff
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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
10 minutes ago, snowray said:

GEM is running with the GFS....gfsnh-0-156.thumb.png.4b639b36941d305e00c258c85dd5bc15.png

So its GEM & GFS,     V     UKMO & ICON,

Lets see who the ECM backs.

 

 

I think ecm will back the gfs!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
11 minutes ago, Griff said:

Today has been a cold shock to the system compared to the glorious sunshine all week. I get the feeling we're in for some middle ground cold damp gloomy weather, neither satisfying proper cold or early warmth seekers

 

8 minutes ago, shaky said:

I think ecm will back the gfs!!!

I'm thinking that too, either gfs or middle ground.

12z fax charts still showing that little disturbance in the SE tomorrow, met office are going for rain but who knows, might be a few surprises.

Indeed a cold wind has set in this afternoon, going to be a cold night and crisp morning that's for sure, less frost around but way more mind chill.

 

fax24s.gif

Edit. Heavy rain symbol for London now on met site for tomorrow lunchtime.

Edited by snowray
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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

Doubt the gfs is correct now,so another failure from this wretched model,always too Far East with everything or pushing Atlantic weather systems straight through high pressure like it doesn’t exit.

 

GFS over and OUT

 

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
27 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

To be honest,i wan't some warmth now because this winter has been a bit of a virus in it's self,winter you have had your chance now "BUGGER OFF"

please let the latest gfs VERIFY from day ten

240,300,and 348hrs.

gfsnh-0-240.thumb.png.82c5a7a9a104f58f68e3d8d9d3bb0b5b.pnggfsnh-0-300.thumb.png.62aa35aca7eaa5122e34b324515b0b4c.pnggfsnh-0-348.thumb.png.6022899040026301a9d754032047afcb.png

 

gfs ens mean there.

gens-21-1-276.thumb.png.adf9a9d2b0430bba3cac21f94c0ef65e.pnggens-21-0-276.thumb.png.e721071ec8fa702a64a7b95fab1ecfaf.png

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
51 minutes ago, snowray said:

 

I'm thinking that too, either gfs or middle ground.

12z fax charts still showing that little disturbance in the SE tomorrow, met office are going for rain but who knows, might be a few surprises.

Indeed a cold wind has set in this afternoon, going to be a cold night and crisp morning that's for sure, less frost around but way more mind chill.

Edit. Heavy rain symbol for London now on met site for tomorrow lunchtime.

I would have thought the north downs would at least see some wintry precipitation from that feature?

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
11 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Probably too early for any real heat, yet a while...But hope is on the horizon::oldgood:

T+321: h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

That's the type of setup that brought the record breaking temperatures to France and Spain in June and July last year, so if that re-occurs during mid summer, we could see something similar this year?  All very much speculation at this stage of course!

Edited by Don
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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
2 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Probably too early for any real heat, yet a while...But hope is on the horizon::oldgood:

T+321: h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Gfs ens showing a lot of eastern promise.

 

graphe_ens3.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Is the GFS really trying to develop a tropical storm around the Azores??

gfs-0-348.png?12 

followed by

gfs-0-366.png?12

pretty close to a cleared-out eye

gfs-14-366.png?12

Edited by Man With Beard
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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

and back to the present and the UK ... you still feel next weekend could go either way from this?? Not far from seeing the low slide down to the east rather than escaping west?

ECM1-120.GIF?28-0

Edited by Man With Beard
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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire
4 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Is the GFS really trying to develop a tropical storm around the Azores??

gfs-0-348.png?12 

followed by

gfs-0-366.png?12

Yes it is 

storm.png

storm0.png

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Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
5 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Yes it is 

storm.png

storm0.png

Might as well continue the end of days theme

Edited by Griff
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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

Still a lot to be resolved if you ask me, ECM sort of taking the middle ground after all.

ECH1-168.thumb.png.166a0faf3a4204ddc08b4f4ec12f1711.pngECH1-240.thumb.png.cd858f51a1ee4cb12b04c02ac3e64fdb.png

But how about this from the JMA...heavy snow likely in the northern half of Britain.

 

J192-21.thumb.gif.cbc74502f59195ff8aa445feb7373a56.gifJ192-7.thumb.gif.3f363c29c02f53b18a8276e5ee384e32.gif

J192-594.thumb.gif.c79157c6199c41664d27f0cfbe90403b.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl

With the lack of plane data, I think this is going to go right down to the wire.

I'm in the camp for one more attempt to see a little bit more snow before we warm up. 

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Posted
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire
3 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Looking like tomorrows high will be a record breaker for March.

Anything above 1049.9 will be a new monthly record.

24-515UK_jmn5.thumb.gif.76fe6125217b91960765ea35f8396907.gif

Wasn’t there a record breaking HIGH in the winter too? These various records keep occurring.

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
1 hour ago, snowray said:

Still a lot to be resolved if you ask me, ECM sort of taking the middle ground after all.

I suspect a middle ground is how it will turn out, but like you say lots to be resolved.

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

The longer term outlook going on the ECM mean suggests unsettled conditions towards the NW with more settled conditions towards the SE.... Perhaps some of this rain and showers spreading further South with time, still likely to be some frost in the more settled conditions, with temps around average further South. Pretty standard fair if you ask me. Take care all. 

EDM1-216.gif

EDM1-240.gif

graphe0_00_266_69___.png

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

ECM has moved to the UKMO / ICON scenario & corrected the atlantic low SE so it potentially straddles the UK like the JMA bringing some snow.

A long way off though.

A3906838-2CD5-4D5C-A3D5-4884884C973D.thumb.png.9caa6e52675c5302eb7e17fead8a7a94.png

 

Lets see what icon 18z shows at 120 hours!!

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