Model Output Discussion - heading into April

[snowray]

29 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

A few flurries look possible tomorrow but not much sign of anything significant or widespread 

Nothing much there. Although as usual some place might actually get a heavier showers or two, and other areas nothing at all

[SLEETY]

Haha gfs ensembles, credibility whatever you had left gfs I should have said is about to go through the floor,only a 25c spread in temperatures ,and still some runs breaching the minus 10  line whilst others over the plus 10 line.

This model after 120 hours should indeed be scrapped.

[snowray]

5 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Haha gfs ensembles, credibility whatever you had left gfs I should have said is about to go through the floor,only a 25c spread in temperatures ,and still some runs breaching the minus 10  line whilst others over the plus 10 line.

This model after 120 hours should indeed be scrapped.

 

[lassie23]

The atmosphere is all up in the air at the moment

[SLEETY]

Lack of planes flying means lack of data? because those ensembles are utterly ridiculous 

[Had Worse]

58 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Lack of planes flying means lack of data? because those ensembles are utterly ridiculous 

The lack of planes could also have an effect on the mixing of the atmosphere in general.

All objects on the planet cause the air to be displaced,

Anyway, the models predict and our eyes feed back whether that prediction was correct for the day and time in question.

[SLEETY]

Next round up soon, place your bets I'm going yes its happening 

[Weather-history]

2 hours ago, SLEETY said:

Haha gfs ensembles, credibility whatever you had left gfs I should have said is about to go through the floor,only a 25c spread in temperatures ,and still some runs breaching the minus 10  line whilst others over the plus 10 line.

This model after 120 hours should indeed be scrapped.

Could be simply down to how finely balanced the set-up is. Slightly differences could make all the difference between a cold northerly or a very mild SSWly.

Spring is the season where you can get this big variations.

[snowray]

What a chart there from the ICON, surely this northerly is going  to make it on this run...or is it?

 

[Griff]

4 minutes ago, snowray said:

What a chart there from the ICON, surely this northerly is going  to make it on this run...or is it?

 

Looks promising 

[MP-R]

Me like!

 

Perhaps an improvement on the cool/cold conditions of the next few days coming. Or maybe wishful thinking. FI is moving backwards and forwards a lot lately. The GFS is quite keen on a return of the type of conditions we had in the first 20 days of this month. Hopefully not a full on Atlantic onslaught, but certainly the potential is there, for even some pretty warm air to be wafted up from the south and southwest.

[snowray]

4 minutes ago, Griff said:

Looks promising 

Looks like a big upgrade to me.

 

 

[SMU]

A VERY cold start to April for Scotland

[snowray]

As for tomorrow, Gfs 12z has -10c/-11c upper air in the east of the country reaching the south coast with wintry showers showing up mainly in the SE.

Edited March 28, 2020 by snowray

[Don]

4 minutes ago, snowray said:

As for tomorrow, Gfs 12z has -10c/-11c upper air in the east and south east of the country reaching the south coast with wintry showers showing up mainly in the SE.

A dusting for the downs in the south east a possibility.

[snowray]

7 minutes ago, Don said:

A dusting for the downs in the south east a possibility.

I would think so yes. Also there might be the heavier ppn around, never know.

Here is the Arpege, showing more showers around on this run.

 

Edited March 28, 2020 by snowray

[Zak M]

Obviously won't verify but look at those temps in central France

[Summer Sun]

Looking like tomorrows high will be a record breaker for March.

Anything above 1049.9 will be a new monthly record.

[Don]

12 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Obviously won't verify but look at those temps in central France

Some early heat building there, with the UK in its sight!

[snowray]

UKMO is running with the ICON solution. 

 

 

[shaky]

Any news on gfs or still all over the place lol

[Griff]

12 minutes ago, snowray said:

UKMO is running with the ICON solution. 

 

 

Interesting 

[Griff]

7 minutes ago, shaky said:

Any news on gfs or still all over the place lol

 

[Methuselah]

Come to Daddy!      

[Don]

7 minutes ago, Griff said:

 

Close but keeps the cold at bay from the UK with higher pressure to the south west.

Edited March 28, 2020 by Don