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Model Output Discussion - heading into April


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex

Those who chase cold weather in FI play a high risk game. Like gambling, it can be addictive. And destructive!

Be positive - the clocks go forward this weekend so let’s hope GFS and ECM are correct with a taste of warmth.

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Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.

I'd nearly prefer a 2 week bout of heavy snow, hail, thunderstorms, hurricane force winds and ice, to keep everybody home!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

Well would you believe it,the gfs i think is going for the northerly.

gfsnh-0-132.thumb.png.341dc77b550d7d6f2dc0ef537950a5da.png

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

Yep,very similar to the UKMO at 144.

286070799_gfsnh-0-144(1).thumb.png.fe63d56dd4386a7717898b51abc46baf.pngUN144-21.thumb.gif.8147902440088b25b882841d9cea6cb2.gif

 

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

We don't want those heights collapsing around the Gin corridor otherwise the Atlantic low will phase with the Greenland one,this will scupper the chance of the northerly,i will be keeping an eye on this in future runs.

Edit:now this is an interesting run,a low has broke away from the northerly flow over Greenland.

northerly on.

gfsnh-0-186.thumb.png.40bfb323b53d92112bba495a8ea9c663.png

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

-12 850's into Scotland:shok:

210.

gfseu-1-210.thumb.png.68cd06e9d4679702b833180389a2a7b8.png

and there was me talking about getting fed up of chasing this northerly earlier lol,if it happens,it happens,we have summer to look forward to soon and i hope that we can all get back to civilization and enjoy it.

 

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Quite a bit of uncertainty at the moment how things may pan out as we enter April. Fine margins between something notably cold or quite benign temp wise, also something fairly dry or much more unsettled.

In the immediate rest of March will be cold, with chilly NE flow and showers wintry in places, frost at night. As we enter April three scenarios:

1. A renewed northerly blast with wintry showers, a long fetch northerly lasting 2-3 days becoming cut off with a ridge moving through and it becomes much milder (this scenario looked more likely early in the week, but looks less likely now - due to developments to the NW - see scenario 2)

2. A northerly flow tries to establish itself, but everything shunts east as we see a shortwave development to our NW, sending the northerly plunge through scandi, and instead we see heights to the SW ridge in and topple through bringing pleasant dry conditions

3. As scenario 2 but instead of the ridge the shortwave has more definition to it, and instead ridge development can't get a foothold and instead we see low heights develop rapidly to the SW and we are left with an unsettled cyclonic spell with marked temp gradient north-south,north in cold air, south in milder air, thereafter the atlantic probably breaks through.

I think scenario 3 will play out, the atlantic has some gusto left in it still and will nudge any ridge development quickly aside.

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

Am I imagining it or is GFS literally showing the northerly next weekend on every other run? Expect it Will it be gone on the 00z and back in the 06z?! Wish it would make its mind up! 

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
44 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Am I imagining it or is GFS literally showing the northerly next weekend on every other run? Expect it Will it be gone on the 00z and back in the 06z?! Wish it would make its mind up! 

No, you're not imagining it!  FI is certainly not far away at the moment!

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

still no clearer where we are heading.Ukmo and icon are going for the northerly ecm and gfs are not ,gfs ensembles still all over the place

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Good morning all! Could April 5th mark the turning point of Spring?

T+201:  h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

T+252:  h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

T+312:  h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

T+384:  h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Maybe not the endless warm and sunny days some of yesterday's runs were suggesting, but at least those horrible north-easterlies would be gone!:yahoo:

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Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
9 hours ago, Tim Bland said:

Am I imagining it or is GFS literally showing the northerly next weekend on every other run? Expect it Will it be gone on the 00z and back in the 06z?! Wish it would make its mind up! 

I was thinking the self same thing  Tim.06z and 18z bring winters last hurrah and12z and 0z take us to early summer.

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
1 hour ago, SLEETY said:

still no clearer where we are heading.Ukmo and icon are going for the northerly ecm and gfs are not ,gfs ensembles still all over the place

50/50 then. I’d ignore GFS and Icon but it’s still 50/50 as UKMO goes for it and ECM doesn’t. 

C42B71F3-252F-4FAF-BC22-84FE13DFB9DB.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Thought I'd spend a few minutes away from Covid-19.

What is interesting is there is appearing an increasingly likely chance of the UK beating the March high pressure record of 1048.6, 2 main opportunities for this, the first comes tonight somewhere on W.Scotland, could well get close to 1050mbs. Second chance is on Sunday afternoon,because whilst the high is starting to weaken its orientation puts the strongest part of the high very close to N.Ireland, so again something between 1048-1050mbs in the far NW of N.Ireland seems very possible.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The GEFS 0z / mean is still supportive of some type of cold outbreak from the NW / N later next week, especially further north.

62BAF6BA-5177-4DFD-A3C7-7DEB44DE759D.thumb.png.395b15f47319c92cca9852c1c483ed16.png96828DDF-2B9A-4135-A87C-D88CED6559D8.thumb.png.cbcbbaf72728959558af581a41ac6cc7.png8A61A3B9-C04D-429B-8BDC-529E24839649.thumb.png.30c3d040cf6e3b666bc3c6172c0a1cc8.png58CF2D3D-2F54-47A8-BD4B-0CC6A30FAF47.thumb.png.de7782778b7966d3d44f9e6edfad8599.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

ECM op was at the top of the pack at the  critical  t144 range and before that too,not over yet by a mile.

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Posted
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to October
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London

I'm assuming the GFS snow% are complete tosh as they have consistently been showing very high chance for snow tomorrow 100% chance yesterday as in the attached image and today 95% chance yet Met app shows rain showers only and bbc dry and cloudy backing the tv forecasts.

This also happened a few weeks ago when we ended up with nothing.

Screenshot_20200327-115221_Samsung Internet.jpg

Edited by Kentspur
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Allah be praised! Next weekend mightn't be too cold and unpleasant, after all?:oldgrin:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
36 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

I'm assuming the GFS snow% are complete tosh as they have consistently been showing very high chance for snow tomorrow 100% chance yesterday as in the attached image and today 95% chance yet Met app shows rain showers only and bbc dry and cloudy backing the tv forecasts.

This also happened a few weeks ago when we ended up with nothing.

Screenshot_20200327-115221_Samsung Internet.jpg

06z fax chart just out, that little feature moving SE towards East Anglia is new, so may see a more persistent area of sleet/snow showers in the south east after all.

 

fax24s.gif

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

A few flurries look possible tomorrow but not much sign of anything significant or widespread 

23633503-0BB3-4426-9E33-9FD0934C01FD.jpeg

5786B24D-E5A5-4B98-868E-F300E3AB7818.jpeg

35251049-9C1B-4DBA-9D9D-62461780AF17.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Well, that's still a 'few flurries' more than in the whole the winter!:oldlaugh:

Anywho, something more springlike, though not necessarily what one would call 'settled' exactly, weather looks like becoming established, with time...?

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

It's also encouraging to see the Continent warming nicely?:oldgood:

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

That ok,haven’t seen a snowflake since January last year.GFS still saying no ,better hope it got this called correct,or it’s credibility is dropping through the floor

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Posted
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
10 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

That ok,haven’t seen a snowflake since January last year.GFS still saying no ,better hope it got this called correct,or it’s credibility is dropping through the floor

Are you seriously suggesting the GFS has some credibility to lose. It’s woeful. It annoys me people still discuss it past 120hrs. It should be scrapped. 

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