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Model Output Discussion - heading into April


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

Just a variation of the theme but this 12z looks better to me (although takes longer) with better heights into Greenland and look at that swath and expanse of the cold pool.

 gfsnh-0-270.thumb.png.bb9557f51dfd9bb36b77f5bb97d73fcd.pnggfsnh-1-270.thumb.png.422816ec36535fac8f3e645c0a91711c.png

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

The GEM at 180,look at that cold purple finger showing it's hand to the north

gemnh-0-180.thumb.png.3ccf86df2535f9bec06d8f6da7ce8953.pnggemnh-1-180.thumb.png.8aa33ab68f8ce015a8b15d47d680221d.png

and at 192

gemnh-0-192.thumb.png.02d226abec34a6707b37d84b293fc402.pnggemnh-1-192.thumb.png.abe77b3a997c8d297249dc056ea36c3a.png

somethings afoot and i hope it's snow

the models showing these stunning charts are prob down to this,a final SSW.

pole10_nh.thumb.gif.56af1d58e154b4f14fd74bf75f2b814f.gifpole30_nh.thumb.gif.7de3ee50d278ca5ef50aa581003315bc.gif

 

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

Trouble is how many times do stunning charts like the gem  at t180 and 192 make it down to T0 hours. 

Maybe just once in a million it actually verifies as shown, 

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

SLIDER ALERT!!!

gfsnh-0-366.thumb.png.1e7423288313d5bae7f5733ef2e2a8f5.png

JFF

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
5 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

The GEM at 180,look at that cold purple finger showing it's hand to the north

 

and at 192

 

somethings afoot and i hope it's snow

the models showing these stunning charts are prob down to this,a final SSW.

 

 

And just when you think things are slipping away, the GFS pulls out a rasper as well.

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
1 minute ago, SLEETY said:

Trouble is how many times do stunning charts like the gem  at t180 and 192 make it down to T0 hours. 

Maybe just once in a million it actually verifies as shown, 

more chance of verifying now though, than if it was Dec to Feb

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
2 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Trouble is how many times do stunning charts like the gem  at t180 and 192 make it down to T0 hours. 

Maybe just once in a million it actually verifies as shown, 

As we all keep saying they would verify more so at this time of the year when the PV relents.

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

Now this is JFF,now this would be a snow-maker under the right conditions.

gfsnh-0-384.thumb.png.6a1e3e0be399fc5a94f2521b3a56dfae.png

the GEM looks spontaneous synoptic wise but we drag in warmer air from the east:olddoh:

 

 

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Posted
  • Location: Dunstable 446ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: cold with frost & snow in winter; hot and dry in summer
  • Location: Dunstable 446ft ASL

What we can be sure of is that it is going to turn colder and at times more unsettled from the weekend through next week and potentially beyond. There is a strong chance that the coldest air and best chance for nationwide convective snow will miss us and we will end up with chilly, increasingly overcast weather with any precipitation more rain/sleet than snow. I fully expect the 'direct hit' from a cold perspective to come when the coldest air is too warm for snow. Sorry - just feeling a bit down today!

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
23 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Still no sign of any technical SSW, final or otherwise.

image.thumb.png.f33f1ac59ded8269af82f2b91130d26b.png

Final warming is showing up on the longer range charts around the 26th April at the moment 

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
31 minutes ago, Dunstable Snow said:

What we can be sure of is that it is going to turn colder and at times more unsettled from the weekend through next week and potentially beyond

Doesn't look unsettled to me. Not when you got a great whacking high pressure near by

GFSOPEU12_102_1.png

Very little rain accumulated  even by 384 hrs which would be Good Friday

GFSOPUK12_384_18.png

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

:help: :80:

 

ECM1-168.gif

ECM0-168.gif

ECM1-192.thumb.gif.5787d97b913e0d09b2504f56a8073a35.gif

ECM0-192.thumb.gif.f821d4176921b13f651d770a27006de0.gif

Edited by snowray
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

ECM day 8 would put hairs on your chest

Yes - still OK for cold the models - inland convection generated - heavy snow showers breaking out all over the gaff.

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

ECM day 8 would put hairs on your chest

That's quiet nice viewing to say the least Crew

ECH1-192.thumb.gif.8d748a1207d2ff6a9a4488a03d2ebeab.gifECH0-192.thumb.gif.7de8691a2c3579850ea9f986de5f4ad3.gif

what a SNORTER as Feb would say.

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

At 216....

keep goin.

ECH1-216.thumb.gif.f2476b21d3d92ddb4be0c70c78717c42.gifECH0-216.thumb.gif.a102b0ea24d3ef72874b2671315ea3bd.gif

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

Fantastic ecm, it must be said,with some sort of slider moving into that bitter Arctic air....

Edited by SLEETY
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Just now, Allseasons-si said:

That's quiet nice viewing to say the least Crew

ECH1-192.thumb.gif.8d748a1207d2ff6a9a4488a03d2ebeab.gifECH0-192.thumb.gif.7de8691a2c3579850ea9f986de5f4ad3.gif

what a SNORTER as Feb would say.

Yes, there would certainly be some white powdery substance on the concrete.

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, there would certainly be some white powdery substance on the concrete.

Yes,we don't want the wet concrete type like all winter.

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

And day ten ends with a slider that could POTENTIALLY give a good dumping for some.

ECH1-240.thumb.gif.2f9b2e94c2729a565d2420fcf27398ed.gifECH0-240.thumb.gif.2d73639a06fad3fc95796b2d96cab3e4.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
2 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

And day ten ends with a slider that could POTENTIALLY give a good dumping for some.

ECH1-240.thumb.gif.2f9b2e94c2729a565d2420fcf27398ed.gifECH0-240.thumb.gif.2d73639a06fad3fc95796b2d96cab3e4.gif

Interesting to see the PPN type charts for Ireland on that day 10 chart.

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Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
3 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

And day ten ends with a slider that could POTENTIALLY give a good dumping for some.

ECH1-240.thumb.gif.2f9b2e94c2729a565d2420fcf27398ed.gifECH0-240.thumb.gif.2d73639a06fad3fc95796b2d96cab3e4.gif

That's the last thing we need right now with everything going on!

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Posted
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
4 minutes ago, TomW said:

That's the last thing we need right now with everything going on!

it'd be good, it would help keep people indoors

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