Model Output Discussion - heading into April

[jonboy]

8 minutes ago, snowray said:

Settling snow there.

Yes pity we can't get this in a winter month, still going to be a shock to the system after all this mild muck, particularly for us soft southern fairies.

 

Hopefully it will help keep people indoors!!

[snowray]

Just now, jonboy said:

Hopefully it will help keep people indoors!!

Thing is in April it will all melt by mid morning in any sunshine, in most places anyway. Any snow in the evening though should stick around all night and freeze as temperatures drop.

[mb018538]

47 minutes ago, joggs said:

Surely,with it been nearly April,the sun would set showers off.......

Yep - convection much more likely now - though the trade off is that when the sun comes out any snow will quickly melt. Give and take!

[mb018538]

I like how the 6z GFS OP goes from a proper Greenland block back to a raging PV in its usual home within a week. Think you'd gotten rid of me for good?? No chance! 

[Methuselah]

1 hour ago, ICE COLD said:

Let’s hope this comes off

Of course it will...It's non-stick!

[SLEETY]

Hope we get a decent northerly and some lying snow to take our minds off everything.

You are allowed an hour or so outside,enough time to get out and enjoy it  on the Downs before it’s all gone by mid-morning at this time of year.

Fingers crossed it comes off.

Edited March 25, 2020 by SLEETY

[Don]

3 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes i know - there is more people despondent in here than the coronavirus thread, and there is a threat to lives of people posting in there!

I’m well aware of that and I myself am very worried about the implications of the Coronavirus and the affect it could have on me, but more importantly my family.  I have been visiting this thread as a means of a break from the horrible times!  I don’t think I’ve really been moaning about the outlook, just giving my take on it.  However, you’re very right that it absolutely matters diddly squat in the scheme of things!  

I apologise if my posts have seemed downbeat for the wrong reasons in this thread but like many, my general mood is not great at the moment given the circumstances!

Edited March 25, 2020 by Don

[feb1991blizzard]

39 minutes ago, Don said:

I’m well aware of that and I myself am very worried about the implications of the Coronavirus and the affect it could have on me, but more importantly my family.  I have been visiting this thread as a means of a break from the horrible times!  I don’t think I’ve really been moaning about the outlook, just giving my take on it.  However, you’re very right that it absolutely matters diddly squat in the scheme of things!  

I apologise if my posts have seemed downbeat for the wrong reasons in this thread but like many, my general mood is not great at the moment given the circumstances!

No not criticising you for your hobby, i love cold, just surprising that the output actually looked reasonable.

[snowray]

33 minutes ago, Don said:

I’m well aware of that and I myself am very worried about the implications of the Coronavirus and the affect it could have on me, but more importantly my family.  I have been visiting this thread as a means of a break from the horrible times!  I don’t think I’ve really been moaning about the outlook, just giving my take on it.  However, you’re very right that it absolutely matters diddly squat in the scheme of things!  

I apologise if my posts have seemed downbeat for the wrong reasons in this thread but like many, my general mood is not great at the moment given the circumstances!

Yes of course Don, everyone is feeling down with whats going on, worried about friends and family, and this does in fact keep our minds off everything to a certain extent. Having said this lets face it, you love it, no point beating around the bush here, I know that most of us would prefer current weather conditions, sunny and settled, I'm really getting into it if I'm honest. But if there's a chance of some stonking snow (to coin a phrase), a couple of inches of the white stuff, winter wonderland scenes upto about 10.30am in April, well you'd grab it with both hands. I would anyway.

[SLEETY]

Let’s hope the models build on this mega northerly in this afternoons runs.Could be a white start for April.Exciting model watching in Spring again,lol.

After months of chasing dross in the winter.Thats the way it goes now for some reason.

[feb1991blizzard]

UKMO looks primed but is now starting to get littered with shortwaves, the classic spoiler (the southern tip of Greenland one) looks to have reared its ugly head again.

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Huge differences at only 144z between GFS and UKMO around the Greenland vicinity

 

 

GFS is yesterdays but you are right, todays will still be different to the UKMO.

[winterof79]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

GFS is yesterdays but you are right, todays will still be different to the UKMO.

Yes I've just deleted it 

[snowray]

How about this then, the 1st blast of cold that was looking like a direct hit at D4/5 until this mornings runs has shifted so far east now that it will be in outer Mongolia by tonight's runs. Useless.

 

 

[winterof79]

Placement of High well up in the air at 120z

UKMO

 

GFS

[Frostbite1980]

1 minute ago, snowray said:

How about this then, the 1st blast of cold that was looking like a direct hit at D4/5 until this mornings runs has shifted so far east now that it will be in outer Mongolia by tonight's runs. Useless.

 

 

Fantastic! I’m a snow lover but sitting in the garden right now with the warm sun beating on my face....perfect for spring, may the cold runs show and verify next winter

[Geordiesnow]

13 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

UKMO looks primed but is now starting to get littered with shortwaves, the classic spoiler (the southern tip of Greenland one) looks to have reared its ugly head again.

You should know by now, we don't get true northeries these days, they are history, the models pick them up at a range where shortwaves are hard to pick up but once they do appear, they scupper any attempts. Same old story. 

Anyways a horrible cold non convective ENEly incoming for the weekend, probably be one of those where it starts fairly clear and sunny then convective cloud builds and flattens as there is no instability and pressure is too high. 

[lassie23]

3 minutes ago, snowray said:

How about this then, the 1st blast of cold that was looking like a direct hit at D4/5 until this mornings runs has shifted so far east now that it will be in outer Mongolia by tonight's runs. Useless.

 

 

Well there is always winter 2020/2021...................... for the cold to keep avoiding the UK

[snowray]

Just now, Frostbite1980 said:

Fantastic! I’m a snow lover but sitting in the garden right now with the warm sun beating on my face....perfect for spring, may the cold runs show and verify next winter

Agreed. But we are still going to get the cold wind and the odd rain shower, its just that there was the chance of a beefy snow shower or 2 until today's runs. So all gone at D3, I expected it though, it's what always happens, even at D2 it can all go pear shaped. Rubbish models, might as well go back to the old sea weed model.

[winterof79]

No point looking in detail further than 144z with these differences in the Atliantic

[winterof79]

GFS 06Z AND 12Z 180Z LAUGHABLE and why not to compare run to run.

[Zak M]

I've only just seen the 06z GFS run - could be a very chilly start to April if this verifies.

[Geordiesnow]

4 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

No point looking in detail further than 144z with these differences in the Atliantic

Looks similar too me, just the troublesome shortwave further north but the results are likely to be similar e.g no link up to any highs over newfoundland so everything goes flatter. 

 

[snowray]

There's our round 2 plunge, at least 1,000 miles further east already. Complete inconsistency in the models, waist of time. So it's just going to turn cold, miserable and probably cloudy too I bet.

Will the gfs invent out of thin air a 3rd plunge of cold next that will end up 1,000 miles further east after a couple of runs I wonder?...

 

 

Edited March 25, 2020 by snowray

[SLEETY]

Models are useless with attempting to model Northerly outbreaks. 

Nearly always they end up missing the UK altogether, gfs already hundreds of miles further East with the 2nd plunge compared to 6 hours ago. 

Don't be surprised if ECM pushes everything further East in a couple of hours as well.