Model Output Discussion - heading into April

[damianslaw]

Models at least in the reliable on the same page, high pressure will be forced to move west in the days ahead as we a trough feature move down from the north, pulling in cold air and possible wintry showers by end of the weekend, with notable wind chill and cold uppers it will feel more akin to mid winter than late March.

Into next week differences being shown in the position of heights to our west, UKMO suggesting they won't advect far enough westwards and after an initial cold east/ne flow its back to something a bit more average with the cold flow cut off, however, ECM and GFS showing some marked trough development to our north again, and a plunge of bitter arctic air set to sweep south, with a deep trough feature to our east.

So shades of late March 2008 - early April 2008 in the models today when we had two late season winter spells, both with snow - not saying this is what will verify but interesting to note, and that came on the back of a predominantly mild snowless winter. Indeed winter has had a habit of showing its face late March - early April in a number of years following on from very mild preety snowless winters, 1975, 1989, 1990, 1998 and 2008 to name a few.

[ICE COLD]

ECM mean going with the op at day 9 and 10 . That’s a very decent mean if your after a cold northerly like me . 

[cheeky_monkey]

39 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

There is certainly a pattern emerging in the models out to day ten looking at the mean 500mb height and 850 temp anomaly's from the gefs/eps with regarding a ridge into Greenland/NE Canada with trough into N Europe

so looking nice for the next few days,a chance to get out in the garden and cut that grass ready for the snow to arrive

 

 

still crapply cold in my location 

[Kentspur]

GFS 18z seems to be moving slightly towards the UKMO evolution correct me if I'm wrong? The high looks closer to our West less window for Eastern areas to see some showers

[Griff]

22 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

GFS 18z seems to be moving slightly towards the UKMO evolution correct me if I'm wrong? The high looks closer to our West less window for Eastern areas to see some showers

Never trust the pub run?

[snowray]

23 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

GFS 18z seems to be moving slightly towards the UKMO evolution correct me if I'm wrong? The high looks closer to our West less window for Eastern areas to see some showers

It always happens, any cold gets delayed by a day or two then is pushed further and further east as we enter the reliable and ends up going down in the long list of close but no cigar events. It may adjust back west on tomorrows runs but I wouldn't bank on it.

[Don]

4 minutes ago, Griff said:

Never trust the pub run?

Probably can on this occasion!

[Don]

1 minute ago, snowray said:

It always happens, any cold gets delayed by a day or two then is pushed further and further east as we enter the reliable and ends up going down in the long list of close but no cigar events. It may adjust back west on tomorrows runs but I wouldn't bank on it.

As soon as the UKMO starts to back away, expect the other models to follow.  Always happens!  

[snowray]

3 minutes ago, Don said:

As soon as the UKMO starts to back away, expect the other models to follow.  Always happens!  

True. Maddening, the models were in full agreement for a few days, GEM 1st, then the ECM and GFS, the GFS ens showing full support, then JMA......

Some people keep saying, just stick to UKMO to T120 if your hunting for cold in the UK, the rest is just hot air, I make them right.

[Don]

8 minutes ago, snowray said:

True. Maddening, the models were in full agreement for a few days, GEM 1st, then the ECM and GFS, the GFS ens showing full support, then JMA......

Some people keep saying, just stick to UKMO to T120 if your hunting for cold in the UK, the rest is just hot air, I make them right.

Very frustrating indeed but happens time and time again........

[lassie23]

2 minutes ago, Don said:

Very frustrating indeed but happens time and time again........

Well never mind it's time for spring

[snowray]

Places from Dover to Brighten on the south coast may get some sort of snow streamer running along the channel. Ens for Dover there, can't even go for a drive down that way right now though with whats going on....

 

 

[Don]

13 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

Well never mind it's time for spring

Spring is well and truly here already.

[SMU]

1080 GH

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Just now, Don said:

Spring is well and truly here already.

Spring may be here at the moment Don, but come the weekend its gonna be a shock to the system.... Much colder air in place with an increasing risk of Wintry showers, and that could mean snow too. So make the most of the next couple of days if you like these warm conditions, you may need those ice scrapers come the weekend. It's a good ECM tonight and quite a cold mean... Not to concerned about the 18z,even though it does show some snow this weekend... The UKMO is a bit of a concern, but not overly so, and could quite easily back Westwards tomorrow. 

 

[snowray]

Control run really going for it!

 

 

[snowray]

And last post from me tonight...

YES!!! JMA 18z backs everything back west again, incredible!

Goodnight everyone, stay safe.

 

Edited March 24, 2020 by snowray

[snowray]

I simply couldn't resist....fax charts are out, slightly more interesting....

 

[Zak M]

Well, well, well. I haven't done these type of posts in a while. Here we go again!

A very fine and dry looking day tomorrow. Unbroken sunshine is likely for the majority of the British Isles.

      

Wednesday morning

On Wednesday morning, the majority of England and Wales will be treated to a fine, sunny morning. The only exception is the far north of England/Scotland/Northern Ireland, where instead, they could wake up to a cloudy and perhaps wet morning. 

Frost is possible in the south, were temperatures should be near freezing, and perhaps dipping below freezing in some areas.

Temperatures in the morning in the south should range from 0-7c, and in the north they should range from 3-9c.

   

   

   

Wednesday afternoon

On Wednesday afternoon, some of the rain and cloud over Ireland, Scotland and northern England will linger into the afternoon, becoming a wet afternoon in these areas.

Elsewhere, it will be sunny. Unbroken sunshine is likely, but high level whisps of cloud can't be ruled out. 

Due to the unbroken sunshine, the temperatures will rise very quickly where sunshine is forecast. It will be a very mild, perhaps warm, day tomorrow in the afternoon, with temperatures in the south ranging from 12-17c, and 7-13c in the north.

   

   

   

Wednesday evening

On Wednesday evening, it is the exact same picture as it is on Wednesday afternoon. Unbroken sunshine possible in some southern areas, with northern areas seeing cloud and rain into the evening and overnight. 

If you live in a place where sunshine is likely, then the sunlight being reflected off the high level cloud could lead to some pretty cool sunsets!

Temperatures in the south in the evening and overnight should range from 3-8c, and in the north, they should range from 3-7c.

   

   

   

Have a good Wednesday everyone! 

[CongletonHeat]

I hate winter, hate cold but actually for the 1st time ever hope that northerly comes off, keep the idiots inside for a few weeks.

[Allseasons-Si]

Morning

a quick one before my last day at work for three weeks at least

the gefs ens are now flat-lining around the -5 isotherm now(black circle) where as they was showing to be near the 0c isotherm yesterday

catch you all later.

 

[feb1991blizzard]

8 hours ago, Don said:

As soon as the UKMO starts to back away, expect the other models to follow.  Always happens!  

UKMO looks lovely from what i can see.

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

14 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

UKMO looks lovely from what i can see.

Yes nice and spring like although a tad chilly in the mornings

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, prolongedSnowLover said:

Yes nice and spring like although a tad chilly in the mornings

More interested in what woulh happen by 192.

[shaky]

Any news on ecm or is that bad lol!!gfs big improvement at 192 hours compared to 18z!!went west based nao crazy last night!!ukmo at 144 hours