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Model Output Discussion - heading into April

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
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Posted

Do i see a Sydney running there

gfsnh-0-360.thumb.png.ab5aef6ab526bc358da817157eca56a5.pngimages.thumb.jpg.0c69bb7277ea3a49dbd66730d2cefa42.jpg

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Don Maestro

Don

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

And in any case you cannot definitively say the UKMO op wouldn't go on to deliver a Northerly anyway, it may well.

We will see but I don’t like the way the UKMO is trending.  Normally in these situations the GFS and EPS seem to follow suit?

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted

The initial NE-E flow is guaranteed now, what is up for grabs is how much convection can be squeezed out.

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shaky Veteran

shaky

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
Posted
16 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The initial NE-E flow is guaranteed now, what is up for grabs is how much convection can be squeezed out.

Lets hope ecm follows the gfs in terms of that initial stronger east north east flow!!most certainly dont want the ukmo!

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted (edited)
29 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

GFS mean now down at -10c for EA.

Interestingly the operational has the -10c isotherm over the SE for 72 hours with plenty of streamers!

14A2706F-D1E5-4ADC-AFFB-FE77F82D8CB1.thumb.jpeg.6f5a57dd3246c1aeae1a111f94b288d2.jpeg

Yes,this looks certain now Steve

these for my local

graphe3_1000_263_24___.thumb.png.4876382be73171689dc4f175e275747c.pngtable_dtb2.thumb.png.f5c6138ae4017423959a4954218ea6cb.png

also a possible second cold plunge around the 3rd/4th.

Edited by Allseasons-si
more info
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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
Just now, shaky said:

Lets hope ecm follows the gfs in terms of that initial stronger east north east flow!!most certainly dont want the ukmo!

the GEFS graph wasn't quite as good as i expected re- the Northerly compared to the generic chart but still not to be sneezed at.

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Kentspur Accomplished

Kentspur

Posted
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to October
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
Posted (edited)

Dont remember seeing a 18/19c drop in ensemble upper air temps within 6days! This for London. What was the drop during the Beast from the East? OP run reaches around minus 11/12 on 29th at one point!

20200324_171259.jpg

Edited by Kentspur
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ItNeverSnowsInWindsor Experienced

ItNeverSnowsInWindsor

Posted
  • Location: Windsor
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Windsor
Posted (edited)

Let’s see what the Ecm brings.... will it side with GFS and bring a taste of winter or will it go for the springlike UKMO ?
 

The GFS op has some support but is on the cold side in general for the upcoming cold snap.

Edited by prolongedSnowLover
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shaky Veteran

shaky

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
Posted
12 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Let’s see what the Ecm brings.... will it side with GFS and bring a taste of winter or will it go for the springlike UKMO ?
 

The GFS op has some support but is on the cold side in general for the upcoming cold snap.

Got a feeling ecm will side with ukmo°!!hope im wrong!!

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winterof79 Veteran

winterof79

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
Posted
35 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Let’s see what the Ecm brings.... will it side with GFS and bring a taste of winter or will it go for the springlike UKMO ?
 

The GFS op has some support but is on the cold side in general for the upcoming cold snap.

image.thumb.png.a5979d404b991cbf2065325140ff5880.pngHardly Spring like

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Gowon Veteran

Gowon

Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
Posted

I hope the ECM isn't missing flight data..

It's a great run!

image.thumb.png.2cec03df70967e9d336afb3a9df09a82.png

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winterof79 Veteran

winterof79

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
Posted
1 minute ago, winterof79 said:

image.thumb.png.a5979d404b991cbf2065325140ff5880.pngHardly Spring like and no its not with UKMO

image.thumb.png.2ea747c51dd0f719a05e4a4c6354a6fd.png

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted

Following on from this morning at 216,this morning on the right

ECH1-216.thumb.gif.5bdbc5d13977ec4522d0fb0098481d93.gifECH1-240.thumb.gif.91349b680b1c6f6687ff5443db659d1f.gif

good consistency. 

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ItNeverSnowsInWindsor Experienced

ItNeverSnowsInWindsor

Posted
  • Location: Windsor
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Windsor
Posted
8 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Following on from this morning at 216,this morning on the right

ECH1-216.thumb.gif.5bdbc5d13977ec4522d0fb0098481d93.gifECH1-240.thumb.gif.91349b680b1c6f6687ff5443db659d1f.gif

good consistency. 

Would be nice to see some record cold minima from this setup for a change!

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted

My word!!!:shok:

1347598762_ECH1-240(1).thumb.gif.563cf26c1992f8941febce32543308a3.gifECH0-240.thumb.gif.60a0ac9bdab01902affbb6b503cd9a88.gif

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stodge Accomplished

stodge

Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London
Posted

Evening all

A couple of observations - UKMO has the HP much closer than some of the other models so we'll see.

Second, the 12Z ECM T+240 is a notch colder than the 00Z version but the journey to the N'ly is somewhat different - GEM is a million miles away and while both GFS OP and Control show some form of NW'ly, it's a fleeting effort unlike the ECM which looks a serious early spring chill.

Early April far from clear at this time.

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

Again the models are showing a spell of unseasonably cold weather on the way and day 10 of the ECM 12z operational gets a special mention..a BOOM chart if ever there was one... day 11 and 12 would have been great to see...fingers crossed!❄️

A1ABB6AF-8890-4573-BD9F-F5AEBD78F2F6.thumb.png.77a1f942510a30518d82b7629a98fd2e.pngD980AD42-D90E-4D89-9610-DCF0750D3659.thumb.png.a2c5d0b110340b4d9e14c7f8bb287331.png

Edited by JON SNOW
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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted

The JMA would follow suit too.

JN192-21.thumb.gif.c4530111c4fe6d83d8eae788f069b95f.gif

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Griff Veteran

Griff

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
Posted
9 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

The JMA would follow suit too.

JN192-21.thumb.gif.c4530111c4fe6d83d8eae788f069b95f.gif

Crikey, that's some similarity, I noted the GFS change towards the ECMWF, and now this... OK wishful thinking at this stage on my part. Does anyone more knowledgeable than me have an insight, are the models completely independent of each other with regard to input data etc? Curious

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knocker Maestro

knocker

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
Posted
16 minutes ago, Griff said:

Crikey, that's some similarity, I noted the GFS change towards the ECMWF, and now this... OK wishful thinking at this stage on my part. Does anyone more knowledgeable than me have an insight, are the models completely independent of each other with regard to input data etc? Curious

As far as I'm aware the models, at various times receive a certain amount of input from the NW MOD thread. Which model is favoured at any particular time rather depends on which is toeing the line and fully up to expectations

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johnholmes Maestro

johnholmes

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
Posted
21 minutes ago, Griff said:

Crikey, that's some similarity, I noted the GFS change towards the ECMWF, and now this... OK wishful thinking at this stage on my part. Does anyone more knowledgeable than me have an insight, are the models completely independent of each other with regard to input data etc? Curious

Totally

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted (edited)

There is certainly a pattern emerging in the models out to day ten looking at the mean 500mb height and 850 temp anomaly's from the gefs/eps with regarding a ridge into Greenland/NE Canada with trough into N Europe

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_41.thumb.png.020a1179be1e49385511727169f79864.pngecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_11.thumb.png.9a3b160c486c1e2030df5a101f9d3c27.png

gfs-ens_T850a_nhem_41.thumb.png.b1005ad9ad32a77a3f6767263fc8c75b.pngecmwf-ens_T850a_nhem_11.thumb.png.a5c215d20cabd377bd29cef436a3cd5a.png

so looking nice for the next few days,a chance to get out in the garden and cut that grass ready for the snow to arrive

 

 

Edited by Allseasons-si
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