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Model Output Discussion - heading into April

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A fresh thread as we move through toward the end of the first month of Spring. True to form, it's looking like turning a bit colder this weekend..

If you're wanting to learn more about the weather and meteorology, it's definitely worth taking a look at our new Learning and Research area.

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NetWx-SR (3km)
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It is indeed looking a bit colder next weekend @Paul

The latest GFS run is showing it becoming a bit more settled afterwards.

gfs0.thumb.png.3430260000cba509a0f648e26f41d3f9.png  gfs1.thumb.png.6c7ed161b08519be5cbaf1a8f2e67727.png  207820062_h500slp(3).thumb.png.1efd01ea45a33bf639d5e259e72c57a6.png

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1 hour ago, Paul said:

Interesting article from the ECMWF - the lack of aircraft in the air may have effect on model accuracy at the moment. 

WWW.ECMWF.INT

One aspect of the COVID-19 pandemic has been a reduction in the aircraft-based observations available to weather prediction centres at the start of forecasts. At ECMWF, aircraft reports are second...

 

One of my favourite topics after the Christmas Day runs always show snowmageddon!

Flight data! Thanks for posting.

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34 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

One of my favourite topics after the Christmas Day runs always show snowmageddon!

Flight data! Thanks for posting.

We haven't had that many decent runs on xmas day recently.

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2 hours ago, Paul said:

Interesting article from the ECMWF - the lack of aircraft in the air may have effect on model accuracy at the moment. 

WWW.ECMWF.INT

One aspect of the COVID-19 pandemic has been a reduction in the aircraft-based observations available to weather prediction centres at the start of...

 

I was wondering.

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Great run from the GFS so far ( pretty similar to yesterdays JMA ) it's finally linking up the two ridges so after the initial easterly blast we could get the second cold blast from the arctic.

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, shaky said:

Any upgrades on the 12z peeps?!

Yes! the snow would be piling up for the SE on the latest run.

Edited by D.V.R
More info
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3 minutes ago, shaky said:

Any upgrades on the 12z peeps?!

 

gfs-1-114.png

gfs-1-144.png

gfs-1-174.png

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Not a million miles away from a tonking for the South there.

image.thumb.png.4eec3962c56b89bee4aad55da05aab9a.png

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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Not a million miles away from a tonking for the South there.

image.thumb.png.4eec3962c56b89bee4aad55da05aab9a.png

Judging from some of the posts here it looks like 12z is an upgrade of sorts!fantastic news!!

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Getting a bit crazy down in France!

297559671_prectypeuktopo(5).thumb.png.7f7916a32ab83b6632e090fb66344f80.png  117481823_prectypeuktopo(6).thumb.png.e19b97885770f57a2b34930d16f7187d.png  42947812_prectypeuktopo(7).thumb.png.bc62556556d8ceb23c28fe9bde71be26.png

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Jeez, quite the difference in la la land... 

 

gfsnh-0-216 (2).png

gfsnh-0-222.png

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GFS 12z jumps aboard 0z ECM FI solution.

image.thumb.png.bf69b4ba2f484669e76b7b03582c6cf8.png

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Posted (edited)

Looks familiar... 

(Feb got there first!) 

image.png.c88f430b8b49638afb82ec84bd366923.png

Edited by Griff
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Posted (edited)

Yes a better run from the gfs and as Feb says it's like the 00z ecm at day ten but would prefer the ecm run with more heights up to the NW which could give a reload after that point

gfsnh-0-240.thumb.png.5bb69cdd02903c4485269b7e67952eac.pngECH1-240.thumb.gif.e0ae99106cbbc1f54f524bcba19287f1.gif

a classic wishbone effect from the gfs at day ten but disturbances could pop up in the flow as we nearer the time IF the same shows of course in future runs.

gfs-2-240.thumb.png.dc5e9cef9b79055005e33543c2b5e9a2.png

the UKMO at day 6 is a little underwhelming but it doesn't go out that far but there is a hp cell over Newfoundland that could amplify more of a ridge from there on. 

 

 

 

Edited by Allseasons-si
spellcheck
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8 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Yes a better run from the gfs and as Feb says it's like the 00z ecm at day ten but would prefer the ecm run with more heights up to the NW which could give a reload after that point

gfsnh-0-240.thumb.png.5bb69cdd02903c4485269b7e67952eac.pngECH1-240.thumb.gif.e0ae99106cbbc1f54f524bcba19287f1.gif

a classic wishbone effect from the gfs at day ten but disturbances could pop up in the flow as we nearer the time IF the same shows of course in future runs.

gfs-2-240.thumb.png.dc5e9cef9b79055005e33543c2b5e9a2.png

the UKMO at day 6 is a little underwhelming but it doesn't go out that far but there is a hp cell over Newfoundland that could amplify more of a ridge from there on. 

 

 

 

Ukmo is pretty boring from start to finish!!!further east as well!!

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Posted (edited)

The models, in general, continuing a mostly dry theme for the next few or so days as High Pressure hangs around close by and over the UK at times. 

You can see this being the case on the GFS 12Z:

8C819BE9-AA8A-44BE-8D1A-EB988A0514F6.thumb.png.e6bd4ad34fa43755fc3477d2d60eefc5.png2D2F4F33-A181-48D4-A5BB-C7D46542FD95.thumb.png.651163f72368452baac7f3bd1319b3d4.png

The core of High Pressure at first hanging about to the East of the UK. Close enough to keep a fair number of places dry and bright during tomorrow and Thursday. But some cloudier and damp weather from a weak front over the North and North-West of the UK:

A07BA5C3-7F20-4310-A6C0-D80E2425F8F7.thumb.jpeg.7b18fa91ecb13aa70516dfbb9bb33cb1.jpegC55EBF10-B040-48C7-BB78-66425BCC0EEE.thumb.jpeg.697442ae7c964fb495a49643a441754c.jpeg808EBAA4-FE28-4C3D-932F-D3ACB504B63D.thumb.jpeg.1b883fc048230e3819017955c50aa497.jpegA57D6451-159A-44CC-8E5D-198238A1B234.thumb.jpeg.0e2e9a5f5c709db52f3a4aa5f4d0ce40.jpeg

Not likely to be much. Losing some of its power and becoming patchier heading through Thursday into Friday. Much of England, Southern and Central Ireland staying dry on the whole.

Some pretty mild days and cold nights/mornings, along with some frost in places:

C630C614-C64B-45B2-8F35-6CFB660BCCB5.thumb.png.e907eddac53ce5654c564066697da93a.png2FD71F0A-4C48-4E41-AD7D-8BF3FBDABD47.thumb.png.c647e21a03ed44e0863f209974a2e567.pngC8E8BDF7-76C2-4943-A023-E721D41F4148.thumb.png.00e6bfa51cc7688c34da8d2a460ba606.pngAC66124C-6DB3-4809-A8EA-903EA0EDE8DB.thumb.png.5efdbab5c7458558e85de40c0dadb392.pngCF1D186A-C9F1-434B-9868-E02037E2A822.thumb.png.28febabed412aca15e810ab1a5299987.png55B00259-4E71-433C-AD83-EECF0C815F53.thumb.png.5978ea6af5dac0acc31df4a41b7ae235.png
 

Some rather big temperature contrasts between day and night. In the brighter spells, would feel quite nice in the sun. Provide a opportunity for some to do some walking. 

As we get into Friday and into the weekend, High Pressure looks to pull out West into the mid-Atlantic and pull down some chilly air from the North.

E5091682-9CD8-42A3-99C7-6890A5006D11.thumb.png.0f6284fcdf2b68f91e72c43c6bc256c7.png158EFFD7-4909-476D-84D4-CD6EEF7F9271.thumb.png.2475d3640dd008ae267746327eb56edb.png82975609-02C3-4448-9E64-329A46E471C4.thumb.png.b7331288ed942a52e22ff0b76af69cc4.pngD3E4BE9A-CF50-4D9F-8312-1521DAC766A5.thumb.png.2e2214858c2cbdc22acf4367c6d4c401.pngE0EC09A6-26BC-4FAF-A56C-1DE1D76CF4D9.thumb.png.55900c2f9f9d6c799ff2d243a5a428f1.png26A45404-C0C2-4611-B353-369C55290285.thumb.png.0ffbdddbc20c165b255639fd45f63361.png

Chance for the flow to veer more from the North-East on Sunday. And while the pressure and upper heights may not be particularly low, the flow could be cold and reasonably unstable enough to pull in some sleet and snow showers from the East. Probably generally affecting Southern and Eastern parts of the UK. But some could sneak into Central areas and some wintry showers possible over North-Eastern Britain too. Especially towards coastal regions.

How widespread any possible wintry showers are during the weekend (particularly the later part) does depend how far North and West High Pressure can back in the mid-Atlantic.

12Z UKMO has the Northern Atlantic High Pressure a little closer to the UK.
 

5CB9F668-4297-4228-8D49-E1A9D9297F55.thumb.png.3b62e9d147b730cffbdf6673b77d7b94.png

 

More places likely to stay dry, except maybe the odd wintry shower or two across the South and East. So there is still a little bit of uncertainty for that period. Either way, blocking in the Atlantic looks likely. And not that wet at all. 

Whether any wintry weather manages to occur at all during the next 10 days (further attempts of cold Arctic outbreaks can’t be dismissed after this weekend as shown on the 00Z ECMWF), this calmer, drier spell personally is a joy to have. It would be comical, though, if some wintry weather does turn up just as we start to head a little deeper into Spring. Not that I would mind it either 🙂

Edited by DiagonalRedLine
Removing duplicate charts
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12 minutes ago, shaky said:

Ukmo is pretty boring from start to finish!!!further east as well!!

Probably get shot down but that’s alarm bells for me.

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Shortwave dramas from the UKMO at day 6(144 hrs) as can be seen here,we don't want this to happen as it stops WAA pushing north canceling out a split flow from the north in comparison to the GFS and GEM at the same time

UN144-21.thumb.gif.caaa608d808604fd2fca2953a4173366.gifgfsnh-0-144.thumb.png.4869e58ff3b3fc9c5697bba487412479.pnggemnh-0-144.thumb.png.c14e1ce75aee5ac19cf02b1ce3245b24.png

i hope the UKMO is wrong but hey! ho! lets see what happens.

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4 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Shortwave dramas from the UKMO at day 6(144 hrs) as can be seen here,we don't want this to happen as it stops WAA pushing north canceling out a split flow from the north in comparison to the GFS and GEM at the same time

UN144-21.thumb.gif.caaa608d808604fd2fca2953a4173366.gifgfsnh-0-144.thumb.png.4869e58ff3b3fc9c5697bba487412479.pnggemnh-0-144.thumb.png.c14e1ce75aee5ac19cf02b1ce3245b24.png

i hope the UKMO is wrong but hey! ho! lets see what happens.

How many times have we been here before with shortwave dramas and the METO ends up being correct?!

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Posted (edited)

GEFS mean a carbon copy of the op with the Northerly - that is as rock solid a guarantee as you'll get at that range - EPS and GEFS mean and both ops v UKMO op.

image.thumb.png.2675b0da06d5597de14c615ab4d52fb4.png

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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And in any case you cannot definitively say the UKMO op wouldn't go on to deliver a Northerly anyway, it may well.

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