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April 2020 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests


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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Sunny Sheffield back to 10.4C +2.2C above average. Rainfall up to 7.2mm 11.4% of the monthly average

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    April confirmed as 10.4c https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/mly_cet_mean_sort.txt

    6.2c to the 1st 0.3c below the 61 to 90 average 2.1c below the 81 to 10 average __________________________ Current high this month 6.2c to the 1st Current low this month 6.2c to the

    Look at that CET anomaly so far, off the scale. Even now at only 11th April, the rest of the year only needs to be 1.11C above the average for it to be the warmest year on record.

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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    The EWP post a few days ago remains generally valid -- by end of 27th there was 17 mm and over the next 36h indications of at least 7 mm in the grid (southeast generally 15-25) so I think we are at around 24 mm now and will add at least the 13 mm needed to verify the provisional estimate I used, although it looks a bit heavier on the GFS 36h projection to end of month. The way the rain is falling, almost everyone will have a correct forecast for some interval that started on 1st of April in the next 144 hours, starting with Emmett Garland who was passed around 08z 28th, then IRAtl252 just being passed now -- by about the fifth of May I would expect most of the forecasts to be realized so it's mainly a matter of luck who happens to be at the bus stop at the end of play tomorrow night. 

    As to the CET it's going to be all about the adjustment for Godber1 and myself, can't see it going outside the range of 10.7 to 10.8 before corrections, so it could easily be 10.5 or 10.6 (our forecasts) at the end although maybe 10.7 is quite possible. 

    Don't forget to enter the May contest (April being a 30 day month etc). 

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    Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

    As I said in a post in another thread about how hard it is to break "driest on record" monthly records certainly over a region or a country, this month may not even be the top 20 driest Aprils on record and it now looks it may not even be in the top 30

    Its around 24mm for England and Wales by 28th April 

    Edited by Weather-history
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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    10.8c to the 29th

    2.9c above the 61 to 90 average
    2.4c above the 81 to 10 average

    __________________________

    Current high this month 11.2c to the 13th
    Current low this month 6.2c to the 1st

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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl

    Fair bit of rain the last couple of days, mainly in the south but I think we could be getting close to the 40mm mark for the month nationwide by midnight. Godber.1 looking favorite to win April with 10.5c and 42mm, really good going to be so close on both CET and rainfall.

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    Posted
  • Location: binley, 83 metres asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes, especially heavy snow.
  • Location: binley, 83 metres asl.
    1 hour ago, snowray said:

    Fair bit of rain the last couple of days, mainly in the south but I think we could be getting close to the 40mm mark for the month nationwide by midnight. Godber.1 looking favorite to win April with 10.5c and 42mm, really good going to be so close on both CET and rainfall.

    RJS is in with a great chance on the CET forecast. It’s fair to say I’ve been lucky this month, but it’s been a long time coming. May will probably bring me back down to earth.

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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    That is a great combination, I sort of hope you get the CET as well to give you a chance at that rare double, my chances are remote unless it goes Biblical between now and midnight (72.2 mm, thought this block was going to break down into a 2008 style downpour). The adjustments usually range from 0.0 to -0.3 so it's hard to say who's got the better chance given that today will drag the provisional down almost another 0.1 by my estimate (from 10.82 to perhaps 10.75). Anyway, another thing riding on this is third place, will 1865 (10.6) be tied, beaten, or survive (I think it's 1943 at 10.5 in 4th and remote chance of being relevant, 1798 at 10.4).

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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
    3 hours ago, Godber 1 said:

    RJS is in with a great chance on the CET forecast. It’s fair to say I’ve been lucky this month, but it’s been a long time coming. May will probably bring me back down to earth.

    Certainly going to be close between you and Roger for the CET down to the wire, but you could get the elusive double, fingers crossed.

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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    EWP on track for 35-40 mm finish, was 30 mm to 29th. Map of rainfall amounts on 30th appears to be in the range of 5 to 10 mm average for the grid. Will update this tomorrow with nearly final figure (5th May for that). I don't see any updates on CET.

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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl

    So there we have it, big correction down this month then ( around 0.3c).

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    27 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

    That's shocking- doesn't reflect how warm the month was at all

    It reflects exactly how warm it was within that CET zone averaged out over 30 days, it does what it says on the tin, its not designed to pick out anomalous short periods.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    13 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    It reflects exactly how warm it was within that CET zone averaged out over 30 days, it does what it says on the tin, its not designed to pick out anomalous short periods.

    Ok if you're being totally logical about it. In terms of the daytime feel of the weather I don't think it reflects how it has felt to most people- I can't remember a warmer feeling April in the afternoons apart from 2007 and 2011 of course.

    I know for a fact that it's been considerably warmer in Manchester than it has at Stonyhurst which is one of the sites used for the CET zone. So maybe that has skewed my perception.

    The maxima have certainly been more impressive than the overall CET.

    Nonetheless it still reflects yet another exceptionally warm and above average month- long may it continue.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    18 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    It reflects exactly how warm it was within that CET zone averaged out over 30 days, it does what it says on the tin, its not designed to pick out anomalous short periods.

    When was the 'anomalous period' during April? It was pretty much homogenously above average all the way through. The anomalies were actually the rare cooler days at the beginning and end of the month!

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    1 minute ago, Scorcher said:

    Ok if you're being totally logical about it. In terms of the daytime feel of the weather I don't think it reflects how it has felt to most people- I can't remember a warmer feeling April in the afternoons apart from 2007 and 2011 of course.

    I know for a fact that it's been considerably warmer in Manchester than it has at Stonyhurst which is one of the sites used for the CET zone. So maybe that has skewed my perception.

    The maxima have certainly been more impressive than the overall CET.

    Nonetheless it still reflects yet another exceptionally warm and above average month- long may it continue.

    Agree with most of what you say but not this bit, a take it you don't like snow then.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    1 minute ago, Scorcher said:

    When was the 'anomalous period' during April? It was pretty much homogenously above average all the way through. The anomalies were actually the rare cooler days at the beginning and end of the month!

    last day or so - felt cold, felt much too warm about half way through the month.

    Edited by feb1991blizzard
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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    Anyway it looks like i have finished 7th in the cet and 15th in the rain.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    Agree with most of what you say but not this bit, a take it you don't like snow then.

    Not against snow but certainly not in April. I enjoy snow between December and February as long as it doesn't stick around too long.

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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
    3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    Anyway it looks like i have finished 7th in the cet and 15th in the rain.

    Have you got a figure there for rainfall Feb?

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    1 minute ago, snowray said:

    Have you got a figure there for rainfall Feb?

    Not exactly but i am basing it on Roger's ascertain off 35-40 mm

    Edited by feb1991blizzard
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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
    18 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    Not exactly but i am basing it on Roger's ascertain off 35-40 mm

    Oh ok. Looks like we will be short of the 40mm, northeastern region looks to have been very dry.

    And now just as we are getting used to the nice weather we could be looking at a cold blast in mid May, so annoying.

    30 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    Agree with most of what you say but not this bit, a take it you don't like snow then.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL

    The only other April with 2020 to share a CET of 10.4c is 1798.

     

     

    Edited by Walsall Wood Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire

    Oh well there we are, a very warm month but less so than I was expecting a few weeks ago.  However, this week has been decidedly cool at times!  Overall, though a very pleasant month indeed, which has helped during these difficult times!

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    I think some are perhaps forgetting just how extreme April 07/11 were and just what an anomaly 10.4C represents. At 1.9C above the 1981-2010 average it's as extreme as January and February were. 

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