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April 2020 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests


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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    10.6c to the 20th

    3.1c above the 61 to 90 average
    2.8c above the 81 to 10 average

    __________________________

    Current high this month 11.2c to the 13th
    Current low this month 6.2c to the 1st

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    April confirmed as 10.4c https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/mly_cet_mean_sort.txt

    6.2c to the 1st 0.3c below the 61 to 90 average 2.1c below the 81 to 10 average __________________________ Current high this month 6.2c to the 1st Current low this month 6.2c to the

    Look at that CET anomaly so far, off the scale. Even now at only 11th April, the rest of the year only needs to be 1.11C above the average for it to be the warmest year on record.

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    Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
    On 20/04/2020 at 10:43, SLEETY said:

    We must be heading for the warmest year in the C.E.T series.

    Crazy how every single month has been above average.

     

    Its going to be an extremely hot summer if this trend continues...

    The cumulative monthly anomaly to the end of April in 2007 was +10.1C. Would need to break the April record of 11.8C to beat that.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Sunny Sheffield at 10.1C +2.4C above normal. Rainfall unchanged.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    7 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

    10.6c to the 20th

    3.1c above the 61 to 90 average
    2.8c above the 81 to 10 average

    __________________________

    Current high this month 11.2c to the 13th
    Current low this month 6.2c to the 1st

    So we already know our finishing positions then - i am finishing 8th in this months competition.

    og-image.png
    WWW.BBC.CO.UK

    14-day weather forecast for B5.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    10.6c to the 21st

    3.1c above the 61 to 90 average
    2.7c above the 81 to 10 average

    __________________________

    Current high this month 11.2c to the 13th
    Current low this month 6.2c to the 1st

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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
    19 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    So we already know our finishing positions then - i am finishing 8th in this months competition.

    Maybe better than that, looks to me like the final value could be lower than the current value, if it only goes up a couple of tenths by weekend, it could fall more after that, then there's the adjustment ... would not rule out 10.1 or 10.2 as the finish. Thinking 10.4 is the most likely at this point. That would hand the win to Godber1. 

    Current top ten Aprils, as you all know 2011 at 11.8 and 2007 at 11.2 are first and second, then it's quite a drop to third place 1865 at 10.6, fourth is 1943 at 10.5, fifth (possibly tied after this year) is 1798 at 10.4 then we round out the top 14 (>10 C) with tied sixth 1893 and 1987 (10.3), 8th place has four tied - 1792, 1794, 1944 and 2014 then three tied for 12th (10.1 -- 1783, 1869, 1945). Seven more are at 10.0, most recent of those being 2009.

    Meanwhile the EWP continues to leak and the latest projection is only 18-20 mm, equal to our lowest forecast of 18 mm from our top scoring contestant, Emmett Garland. We are still only at 11 mm and the GFS 210h (what's left) says no more than 10 mm on average in the grid, as low as 2 mm in the southeast. Would say 20 is the current over-under. That is around 20th driest of the 255 years ranked. We are already above 8th driest place at the current value.

    Second lowest forecast I Remember Atlantic 252 was 25 mm, so here again you can easily calculate your finishing position by counting forecasts from the bottom up. At the moment it seems like top spot would have to go to either the lowest or second lowest forecast. I will post some updates on scoring when this is a bit more certain. 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Sunny Sheffield still at 10.1C +2.4C above normal. Rainfall 3.3mm 5.2% of the monthly average and could well be the final figure as well.

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  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Sunny Sheffield still at 10.1C +2.3C above normal Rainfall unchanged.

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    10.7c to the 22nd

    3.1c above the 61 to 90 average
    2.7c above the 81 to 10 average

    __________________________

    Current high this month 11.2c to the 13th
    Current low this month 6.2c to the 1st

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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    The EWP remains on 11 mm and now looks to add 20-25 mm (GFS 12z to 180h), likely finish 37 mm plus or minus 5. 

    The CET will probably edge up to 10.8 by weekend and then slide back to 10.5 or thereabouts before corrections. 

    Based on a 37.1 mm EWP these would be the top 40 scores both for the month (left column) and the contest year (right column). It should be noted that any small changes in this outcome (37.1 mm) will produce significant changes in the scoring as the forecasts were tightly clustered around the projected outcome. The complete scoring with adjustments will be available by May 2nd. 

     

    April contest scoring ______________________ Annual contest scoring update

    Rank ___ FORECASTER ___ Apr fcst __ Points _______ Rank ___ FORECASTER ___Total points (rank last month)

    _01 ____ Blast from the Past __ 38.0 ___ 10.0 __________01 ____ Reef ____________ 39.75 (2)

    _02 ____ Relativistic _________36.0 ____ 9.82 _________02 ____ Emmett Garland ___ 39.55 (1)

    _03 ____ DiagonalRedLine ___ 40.0 ____ 9.64 _________ 03 ____ Twilight __________ 35.48 (3)

    _04 ____ Mulzy ____________ 40.0 ____ 9.56 _________ 04 ____ Godber1 _________ 35.37 (6)

    _05 ____ davehsug _________ 40.0 ____ 9.48 _________ 05 ____ Mulzy ___________ 34.47 (14)

    _06 ____ shillitocettwo _______ 34.0 ____9.10 _________ 06 ____ mb018538 _______ 33.34 (7)

    _07 ____ Bobd29 ___________ 42.0 ____8.92 _________ 07 ____ Thundery Wintry Sh_33.25 (11)

    _08 ____ Godber1 __________ 42.0 ____8.84 __________ 08 ____ Don ____________ 30.84 (8)

    _09 ____ virtualsphere _______32.0 ____8.55 __________ 09 ____ Timmytour _______ 30.81 (9)

    _10 ____ freeze ____________ 30.0 ____8.19 __________ 10 ____ Jonboy __________ 29.78 (13)

    _11 ____ Thundery Wintry Sh^_ 43.8 ____8.17 __________t11 ____ General Cluster ____29.63 (17)

    _12 ____ B87 ______________ 45.0 ____8.01 __________t11 ____ Bobd29 __________ 29.63 (25)

    _13 ____ Twilight ___________ 45.0 ____ 7.93 _________ 13 ____ Robbie Garrett _____ 28.74 (4)

    _14 ____ CheesepuffScott ____ 45.9 ____ 7.65 _________ 14 ____ DR(S)NO _________28.49 (5)

    _15 ____ Brmbrmcar ________ 46.0 ____ 7.47 _________ 15 ____ Stationary Front ____ 28.37 (12)

    _16 ____ SteveB ____________48.0 ____ 7.29 _________ 16 ____ Relativistic ________28.05 (35)

    _17 ____ Stargazer __________48.0 ____ 7.21 _________ 17 ____ Blast from the Past __27.52 (39)

    _18 ____ Blast from the Past __ 38.0 ____ 8.0 __________ 18 ____ snowray __________ 27.35 (24)

    _19 ____ Mr Maunder ________ 49.0 ____6.74 _________ 19 ____ Brmbrmcar ________ 27.25 (29)

    _20 ____ I Remember Atl 252__ 25.0 ____ 6.56 _________ 20 ____ J10 ______________ 27.01 (20)

    _21 ____ Feb1991Blizzard ____ 49.7 ____ 6.38 _________ 21 ____ davehsug _________ 26.57 (41)

    _22 ____ General Cluster _____ 50.0 ____ 6.20 _________ 22 ____virtualsphere _______26.54 (37)

    _23 ____ SLEETY ___________50.0 ____ 6.12 _________ 23 ____ SLEETY __________ 26.49 (26)

    _24 ____ seaside60 _________ 53.0 ____ 5.84 __________24 ____Dog Toffee _________26.42 (15)

    _25 ____ snowray ___________ 55.0 ____ 5.65 _________ 25 ____Mr Maunder ________ 26.20 (30)

    _26 ____ Reef ______________55.0 ____ 5.57 __________26 ____Weather26 _________ 26.00 (18)

    _27 ____ Emmett Garland ____ 18.0 ____ 5.29 __________ 27 ____Roger J Smith ______ 25.91 (16)

    _28 ____ Timmytour _________ 58.0 ____ 5.11 __________ 28 ____Midlands Ice Age ___ 25.70 (22)

    _29 ____ The PIT ___________ 60.0 ____ 4.93 __________ 29 ____Kentspur __________ 25.65 (10)

    _30 ____ weather-history _____ 60.0 ____ 4.85 ___________30 ____DAVID SNOW ______ 25.63 (23)

    _31 ____ jonboy ____________ 60.0 ____ 4.77 __________ 31 ____SteveB ____________ 24.90 (38)

    _32 ____ Don ______________ 60.0 ____ 4.69 __________ 32 ____JeffC _____________ 24.82 (21)

    _33 ____ J10 _______________60.0 ____ 4.61 __________ 33 ____daniel* ____________ 24.76 (19)

    _34 ____ prolongedSnowLover _61.3 ____ 4.02 __________ 34 ____ seaside60 _________ 24.06 (36)

    _35 ____ DAVID SNOW ______ 64.0 ____ 3.84 __________ 35 ____ Born From the Void __22.78 (27)

    _36 ____ February 1978 ______ 65.0 ____ 3.66 __________ 36 ____ February 1978 _____ 22.40 (33)

    _37 ____ Midlands Ice Age ____ 66.0 ____ 3.48 __________ 37 ____ The PIT __________ 22.37 (40)

    _38 ____Stationary Front _____ 68.0 ____ 3.30 ___________38 ____ syed2878 _________ 21.08 (31)

    _39 ____ Senior Ridge _______ 68.0 ____ 3.22 ___________39 ____ CheesepuffScott ____ 20.80 (46)

    _40 ____ Weather26 _________69.0 ____ 2.94 ___________ 40 ____ Feb1991Blizzard ____ 20.28 (43)

    _41 ____ Norrance __________ 69.0 ____ 2.86 ___________41 ____DiagonalRedLine ____20.17 (55)

    ^ late penalty (1d) dropped raw score by 0.2

    note other scores for later duplicate entries drop 0.08, positional differentials are 0.18-0.19.

    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Neither of the two annual contest leaders Reef and Emmett Garland scored high (in this estimate, a lower actual total could let Emmett Garland move back out in front). This has reduced the large margin they held over the rest of the field after March, with Twilight moving up closer while staying in third place, Godber1, Mulzy, mb018538 and TWS all closing in on the leaders also. On the provisional estimate, several forecasters made significant moves up the table. The numbers in brackets beside your annual score is the ranking last month (after March). Kentspur was the only forecaster shown in the annual rankings who did not enter April. 

    I have restored the average error rank in the excel file after February made it a useless statistic if I tried to include frequent forecasters who missed that trainwreck. Now of all the 4/5 entrants only one (I Rem Atl 252) missed February, so I felt that the averages for 4/5 and 5/5 could be reliably integrated into one grouping. That will be shown at end of the month. Anyone who has played 3/5 including February can be integrated into average error stats later in the contest year if they keep up to this pace (missing only two). The order for average error is slightly different than points, and sometimes jogs around quite a bit, showing that it helps to be within 20-30 mm during an extreme event rather than when it comes in nearer to average. 

     

    Edited by Roger J Smith
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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Sunny Sheffield on 10.3C +2.4C above normal.Rainfall unchanged.

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    10.8c to the 23rd

    3.1c above the 61 to 90 average
    2.7c above the 81 to 10 average

    __________________________

    Current high this month 11.2c to the 13th
    Current low this month 6.2c to the 1st

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    Posted
  • Location: Cardiff
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny!
  • Location: Cardiff

    What a wonderful month of weather it has been.  Can't really imagine how this months weather could have been any better.

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    10.9c to the 24th

    3.2c above the 61 to 90 average
    2.8c above the 81 to 10 average

    __________________________

    Current high this month 11.2c to the 13th
    Current low this month 6.2c to the 1st

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Sunny Sheffield still at 10.3C +2.3C above normal. Rainfall Unchanged.

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    May well hit 11 degrees tomorrow, then most likely to hold on Monday with a slight downward fall thereon, possibly a finish of 10.8 degrees, downward corrections could happen so a finish in the 10.5 - 10.8 category I think.

    Rainfall wise, some places have yet to record any rain, for others only very neglible amounts 0.1, 0.2 mms, however, I'll be very surprised if anywhere returns trace/nil amounts by end of the month given the forecast. Indeed a few places might even record an average month, but for many even with the forecasted rain for the last 3 days, many places will probably have seen only about a third to half at most of what would normally expect in April. Unfortunately I can't see May being a very dry month, indeed average rainfall wise at best. Would much prefer to have swapped weather of April for May.

     

    Edited by damianslaw
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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    5 hours ago, damianslaw said:

    May well hit 11 degrees tomorrow, then most likely to hold on Monday with a slight downward fall thereon, possibly a finish of 10.8 degrees, downward corrections could happen so a finish in the 10.5 - 10.8 category I think.

     

    Yes agreed, I'd be surprised if it goes any lower than 10.8C before corrections.

    A couple of warm days still to come in the south and after that there just isn't enough time left in the month to see much of a fall, and it's also not looking excessively cool.

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  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    10.9c to the 25th

    3.1c above the 61 to 90 average
    2.7c above the 81 to 10 average

    __________________________

    Current high this month 11.2c to the 13th
    Current low this month 6.2c to the 1st

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  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Sunny Sheffield up to 10.4C. +2.4C above normal. Rainfall unchanged.

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    11.0c to the 26th

    3.2c above the 61 to 90 average
    2.7c above the 81 to 10 average

    __________________________

    Current high this month 11.2c to the 13th
    Current low this month 6.2c to the 1st

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Sunny Sheffield still at 10.4C +2.1C above normal. Rainfall unchanged at 3.3mm 5.2% of the monthly average.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Sunny Sheffield on 10.5C +2.3C above average. Rainfall unchanged.

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    11.0c to the 27th

    3.1c above the 61 to 90 average
    2.7c above the 81 to 10 average

    __________________________

    Current high this month 11.2c to the 13th
    Current low this month 6.2c to the 1st

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    10.9c to the 28th

    3.0c above the 61 to 90 average
    2.5c above the 81 to 10 average

    __________________________

    Current high this month 11.2c to the 13th
    Current low this month 6.2c to the 1st

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    2 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

    10.9c to the 28th

    3.0c above the 61 to 90 average
    2.5c above the 81 to 10 average

    __________________________

    Current high this month 11.2c to the 13th
    Current low this month 6.2c to the 1st

    A real shame about these last couple of days. We could have challenged 2007 otherwise

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