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April 2020 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests


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April confirmed as 10.4c https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/mly_cet_mean_sort.txt

6.2c to the 1st 0.3c below the 61 to 90 average 2.1c below the 81 to 10 average __________________________ Current high this month 6.2c to the 1st Current low this month 6.2c to the

Look at that CET anomaly so far, off the scale. Even now at only 11th April, the rest of the year only needs to be 1.11C above the average for it to be the warmest year on record.

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    The current global situation shows that we can't always be too certain of the future human role in possibly affecting climate, if this all leads to a drastic restructuring of the global economy we may get to the proposed lower greenhouse gas emissions by an entirely unplanned route. The one good thing about that is that we might get a chance to test out theories about rates of change but it's a heck of a way to do it. And being more of a "natural variability" proponent, I am not as prone to ruling out returns to colder scenarios, it's just that I also see reasons why natural variability is lining up with the AGW signal as a sort of tag team, if one doesn't get us, the other one will. 

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  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Sunny Sheffield still at 10.3C +2.8C above normal. Rainfall up to a massive 2.3mm 3.6% of the monthly average. Little sign of much in the way of rain for the foreseeable future and at the moment we are the 2nd driest on record for us. Next driest is 7.8mm in 2007 and we no what happened then.

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    10.8c to the 17th

    3.5c above the 61 to 90 average
    3.0c above the 81 to 10 average

    __________________________

    Current high this month 11.2c to the 13th
    Current low this month 6.2c to the 1st

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    Rainfall wise, it looked like we might squeeze out a bit of precipitation from this front moving north, but it has decided to break up just as it is reaching us, and not making it this far, the rain is currently only about 30 miles away.. alas, a further 7 days at least of no rain on the way, which will mean we have gone about 5 and half weeks with trace amounts - not often this has happened.

    Whether we see an almost rain free April remains to be seen, there are signs the latter end to the month may bring a more unsettled spell.

    I'll also be interested to note the % of days since mid March winds have been from a SW to NW point of the compass, only a handful I imagine. Hence reason for the lack of rain here.

    The synoptics we have on offer now, and have had for weeks are the same type of synoptics that give the cold winter dry spells of yesteryear to the NW, weeks and weeks of dry cold weather thanks to easterly / northerly airstreams. Frontal systems from the SW coming unstuck as they move north - midlands and wales receiving all the snow.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire

    Again we avoid a cold April - it is actually a massive 31 years since the last time we had an April that could reasonably be classed as significantly cold - (CET under 7*C).  The coldest April of recent times was 7.2*C in 2012.  April has certainly been devoid of anything notably cold for over 30 years now.  This year is turning out quite the opposite and we could well be looking at another April CET in double figures.  Double figure April CETs are certainly notably warm and there have been four of them in the last 13 years, and 2020 almost looks certain to join the list, which shows how notably warm Aprils have often been in recent times.

    When you look back, cold Aprils tend to occur following on from winters that had notable cold spells in them - April 1986 was notably cold after a very severe February.  April 1983 was also cold after a cold February.  April 1978 was cold following on from a slightly below average January and a fairly cold February.  Further back April 1970 was also cold after all five months from Nov 1969 to March 1970 were generally on the cold side.  April 1956 was cold after a severe February.  April 1941 was also cold after a cold winter, especially January.  April 1936 was cold after the previous December and February were on the cold side.  Looking at all this, it appears that good cold spells in the preceding winter months increase the chances of a cold April, although there was an exception that 1989 did deliver a cold April after a very mild December to March period, although it appears that it is very rare to get a cold April after very mild winter months like this winter just gone has had.

    Edited by North-Easterly Blast
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    Posted
  • Location: Cottingham
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Cottingham
    22 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

    The current global situation shows that we can't always be too certain of the future human role in possibly affecting climate, 

    I presume you are referring to the fact that CO2 emissions can rapidly change in a short space of time, due to current events like the pandemic? Lets not forget that the impacts of increased CO2 emissions will remain for a long time because CO2 has a long residence time in the atmosphere. We won't suddenly drop to pre-industrial global temperatures because emissions have temporarily reduced.

    Edited by Quicksilver1989
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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    1 hour ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

    I presume you are referring to the fact that CO2 emissions can rapidly change in a short space of time, due to current events like the pandemic? Lets not forget that the impacts of increased CO2 emissions will remain for a long time because CO2 has a long residence time in the atmosphere. We won't suddenly drop to pre-industrial global temperatures because emissions have temporarily reduced.

    I wish some of the climate deniers would acknowledge this. The amount of posts I’ve seen saying ‘oh look! Global emissions have dropped off a cliff since corona got here and we’ve seen no reduction in temperatures, it’s proof the whole thing is a hoax!’ is quite depressing.

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    Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
    3 hours ago, mb018538 said:

    I wish some of the climate deniers would acknowledge this. The amount of posts I’ve seen saying ‘oh look! Global emissions have dropped off a cliff since corona got here and we’ve seen no reduction in temperatures, it’s proof the whole thing is a hoax!’ is quite depressing.

    The irony aswell is that the majority of the emissions which are more short-term and affected by the current situation actually have a cooling effect such as smoke, aerosols etc so we're likely if anything to see a net warming.

    Edited by reef
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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    I have been one of the most sceptical people on the science of climate change (although not actually in any way a climate change denier) and even i can see there is no way 1 month of reduced CO2 emissions can have any significant impact on world climate and weather.

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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    All true, I meant more in the longer term, we can't make infallible assumptions about anything continuing on as before, and eventually a significant change can't be ruled out. This is perhaps a hidden problem at the moment, there are going to be those who will say, well now that we are on this different path, perhaps we should stay on it, while others have no immediate plan B for their return to the active economy. The weakness in that postulation may be that carbon emitting industries are not necessarily those severely impacted, for example the restaurant trade although as a secondary feature any business that brings in customers by self-driven vehicles is indirectly involved in the paradigm. But I understand the longevity of the signal in the atmosphere, however, it is true that the political suggestions being made before the pandemic were milder changes to the economy than what the pandemic has brought. 

    Also agree about not derailing the thread so let's move on, I think we all get the point.

    By the way, it's the 19th, that means my task for the day is to get the May thread up and running. Will do that by this evening.

    Edited by Roger J Smith
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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Sunny Sheffield back down to 10.1C +2.6C above normal, Rainfall 3.3mm 5.2% of the monthly average

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    Would be good to have the running daily figure against final 61-90 average, and also the new 91-20 average for comparison. It's good to note against running daily mean, but it's the final figure I benchmark against.

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  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl

    Where are we as far as rainfall totals are concerned? Very dry so far but it looks like it will be turning a lot more unsettled in the last few days of the month.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Sunny Sheffield still at 10.1C +2.5C above normal. Rainfall 3.3mm 5.2% of the monthly average

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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    EWP sits around 11 mm at this time and GFS only indicates about 15 mm more to come, perhaps a bit more right at the end, so 30 mm seems a reasonable estimate. However model guidance is all over the place on how and when this blocking breaks down. The actual outcome could easily be as low as 20 or as high as 40 depending on which scenario prevails. Some indications of a wet start to May however. 

    The CET seems likely to cruise along in the mid to high 10s most of the way to the end, could fall by a notch or two, will be surprised if it finishes outside the 10.0 to 11.2 range. 

    As to various comparisons, our tradition has been to post like the Met Office do against the current average value of the running CET, they are still using 1961-90 data so we worked out the comparative 1981-2010 numbers. I would suggest if somebody wants to see daily reports of the CET vs end of month averages, they bring that feature into the thread themselves. At the moment, the 1991-2020 April "normal" is likely to be on the cusp of 8.9 and 9.0, and a 10.5 finish will make this exactly 8.95 from monthly averages but the Met Office use a slightly different calculation than I use (I take an average of monthly CET values as listed in the tables, they take averages of mean max and min and then the average of those -- it can be slightly lower since monthly means can be rounded upwards on occasion and if that happens four or five times in thirty, then it might add 0.1 to the mean). So I don't know if the 1991-2020 April normal will be officially 8.9 or 9.0 nor do I happen to know when they make these announcements, probably not until some time into 2021. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    I think with it now looking warmer again at the end of this week, and no obvious cold plunge next week (at the moment), there's more than a good chance of a top 5 April (10.4C or more), and still a decent chance of getting into second place - which would require 11.2C. Probably too much of an ask to get the number one spot now, which would require 11.8C. Anything below 10C is out of the question now, I suspect.

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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

    We must be heading for the warmest year in the C.E.T series.

    Crazy how every single month has been above average.

     

    Its going to be an extremely hot summer if this trend continues...

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    10.6c to the 19th

    3.2c above the 61 to 90 average
    2.8c above the 81 to 10 average

    __________________________

    Current high this month 11.2c to the 13th
    Current low this month 6.2c to the 1st

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    Looks like the people that went ultra mild on their guesses will be proved right! Even my guess in the 9s is going to be way too low. Daily averages in the mid teens are going to send it well above 11c again by the weekend, and it doesn’t even look cold after then. Could end up 2nd warmest of all time.

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    Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
    On 18/04/2020 at 08:39, Roger J Smith said:

    The current global situation shows that we can't always be too certain of the future human role in possibly affecting climate, if this all leads to a drastic restructuring of the global economy we may get to the proposed lower greenhouse gas emissions by an entirely unplanned route. The one good thing about that is that we might get a chance to test out theories about rates of change but it's a heck of a way to do it. And being more of a "natural variability" proponent, I am not as prone to ruling out returns to colder scenarios, it's just that I also see reasons why natural variability is lining up with the AGW signal as a sort of tag team, if one doesn't get us, the other one will. 

    Remembering how drastically aviation throughout Europe was curtailed for a week almost ten years to the day after the eruption of the Icelandic volcano and wondering if this year might follow up with its own version of December 2010 ? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    This must be one of the most contrasting 6 week periods ever recorded in terms of rainfall. The 6 weeks pre March 18th being excessively wet and the following 6 weeks taking us to 29 April roughly excessively dry. The last time we had such an abrupt change on this scale was probably Feb-April 2012 but the other way round.. though I think not quite as wet that time round or as dry . Would like some stats rainfall 6 weeks pre 18 March England and Wales. Here I think we've had less than 15 mms of rain since about 18 March. Unusual and a break is surely coming...

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    This must be one of the most contrasting 6 week periods ever recorded in terms of rainfall. The 6 weeks pre March 18th being excessively wet and the following 6 weeks taking us to 29 April roughly excessively dry. The last time we had such an abrupt change on this scale was probably Feb-April 2012 but the other way round.. though I think not quite as wet that time round or as dry . Would like some stats rainfall 6 weeks pre 18 March England and Wales. Here I think we've had less than 15 mms of rain since about 18 March. Unusual and a break is surely coming... did any forecast see such a dry warm April? Dont recall anyone suggesting this would happen end of March at least not on this scale. Why is the Atlantic out of oomph..factors and answers please..

     

     

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