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April 2020 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests


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April confirmed as 10.4c https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/mly_cet_mean_sort.txt

6.2c to the 1st 0.3c below the 61 to 90 average 2.1c below the 81 to 10 average __________________________ Current high this month 6.2c to the 1st Current low this month 6.2c to the

Look at that CET anomaly so far, off the scale. Even now at only 11th April, the rest of the year only needs to be 1.11C above the average for it to be the warmest year on record.

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11.4c to the 12th

4.7c above the 61 to 90 average
3.8c above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________

Current high this month 11.4c to the 12th
Current low this month 6.2c to the 1st

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So that provisional number of 11.4 C ties with 2011 as warmest running CET to 12th. The running mean in 1778 managed to interrupt for one day on 13th (11.2), as 2011 fell to 11.1, but then 2011 picks up the lead again for a few days, around 11.0, before 1945 takes over for a few days 17th-21st. That warm spell got up to a running value of 11.4 before falling well behind with a very cool finish. 2011 took over the lead again on 22nd and held it to the end. 

Looking at model runs, thinking we will be playing tag with 2011 most of the way in now, on the basis of the maps fully verifying, would imagine the outcome to be 10.7 to 11.2, but a wider range quite possible. This 11.4 report may in fact be the high point but it does look somewhat possible that we might edge past that again in about a week. More likely not with the east wind factor, maybe will hold in the higher 10s. 

As to records, on the provisional numbers, they were set on 8th, 10th but not on 9th, 11th or 12th. The 11th had the highest mean but 1869 had a particularly robust record of 16.0 that date. The 12th record of 14.4 (1939) was not quite reached (must have turned a bit cooler in the northern part of the zone). Also safe was the 2017 record set on 9th, but it appears that 1798 (12.5, 8th) and 1928 (13.5, 10th) have lost records to this warm spell. 

The EWP meanwhile is currently about 2 mm if they add one for the scattered thundershowers yesterday, and the 10-day GFS projection is rather light at 10-15 mm, then the rest of the month looks not overly wet (perhaps 10-15 more). That could be a total as low as 22 or as high as 32 mm. 

Edited by Roger J Smith
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11.2c to the 13th

4.3c above the 61 to 90 average
3.6c above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________

Current high this month 11.2c to the 13th
Current low this month 6.2c to the 1st

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11 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

11.2c to the 13th

4.3c above the 61 to 90 average
3.6c above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________

Current high this month 11.2c to the 13th
Current low this month 6.2c to the 1st

Prosody success in March was more luck than management!

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12 hours ago, JeffC said:

Prosody success in March was more luck than management!

Its dropping... 10.8 now.

Will the last week be on the cool side...?

A direct northerly for you needed Jeff.?

Edited by DAVID SNOW
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10.8c to the 14th

3.8c above the 61 to 90 average
3.1c above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________

Current high this month 11.2c to the 13th
Current low this month 6.2c to the 1st

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54 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Although everything is pointing to a colder second half of April, this depends on the models not doing a very familiar thing, which is toppling a N Atlantic High in SE direction as T0 approaches.

And the on going missing data issues.

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9 hours ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Its dropping... 10.8 now.

Will the last week be on the cool side...?

A direct northerly for you needed Jeff.?

Yeah or some very cold nights might help!

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10.7c to the 15th

3.6c above the 61 to 90 average
3.0c above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________

Current high this month 11.2c to the 13th
Current low this month 6.2c to the 1st

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The provisional CET of 10.7 (after 15 days) would be second highest behind the 11.0 set in 2011 for the first half of April. If eventually downgraded to 10.6 it remains there, while 10.5 produces a three-way tie with 1926 and 1943. Up and coming 1945 is at 10.4, and will take over from 2011 as highest running CET for a few days around the 20th, when it peaks at 11.4. Then 2011 resumes the lead in that category and maintains it to the final outcome (11.8).

Looking at the 06z GFS run, would say that we are likely to stay in the 10s for about a week, possibly making a slight rise again but more likely staying in the range 10.3 to 10.7, then after about the 23rd the CET would fall off gradually to near 9.5, before stabilizing and possibly inching back up to 9.6 or thereabouts. That would represent a tie with four other years for (only) 31st warmest April. 1945 fell off quite sharply after its peak, and ended up only 10.1.

Could it go lower than 9.5-9.6? The maps suggest an average temperature during a five-day cold spell of about 6 C. If the rest of the month (including possibly the last day or two) averaged 10.5, then 6 would result in an overall average of 9.7 (hence my estimate). So for a lower finish either this coming somewhat warmish spell needs to come in a bit under the expectation, or that cold spell needs to overperform. What's sadly more likely is that it would underperform around 8 C and yield a result of 10.0 or 10.1. 

Meanwhile, at the EWP ranch, only 2 mm rounded up so far. This appears to be the fourth driest first half of April (since daily data available, 1931) after 2007 (0.9 mm), 1995 (1.0) and 1997 (1.3), as 1938 which ended up driest April (8 mm) had 3.2 mm by the 15th, similar to 1933, 1943, 1957, 2002 and 2003 in the 3-4 mm range. No other year was under 5 mm at this point (2011 had most of its small total in the first half, 2017 was around 5 mm by 15th). The ten-day GFS projection looks rather wet in south central England but overall has perhaps 25 mm in the grid on average, and then the final four or five days appear rather wet also, maybe 20 mm more, so at this point the dry April could become almost a normal one at 45-50 mm. Still possible that these rainfalls will come in under expectations and the 20-30 mm of our driest forecasts is not off the table yet.

Edited by Roger J Smith
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10.8c to the 16th

3.6c above the 61 to 90 average
3.1c above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________

Current high this month 11.2c to the 13th
Current low this month 6.2c to the 1st

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On the rainfall front, England and Wales totals will go up next 24 hrs however expecting marked regional differences, here we are expecting nil rain for the foreseeable on top of perhaps only 0.1 mm so far this month turning into a very dry April for the lake district and a very dry 5-6 week spell. Perpetual dry weather combined with the lockdown is adding to a very groundhog day feel to every day at the moment, adding to overall surrealness.. lake district doesn't do endless dry sunny conditions. All very odd!

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Where I live, contrails are a big feature in the sky, we seem to get them a lot for the combined reasons of flight paths and weather conditions here. So with the sharp cutback in numbers of flights, I'm noticing that skies are more often clear, no contrail debris that turned into patchy high cloud. This may also be a feature in Britain.

GFS lost most of its interest in that colder spell, now looks more like staying in the 10s and perhaps making a run at 2007 for second warmest April? Don't think it will threaten 2011 but could I suppose. 

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1 hour ago, Roger J Smith said:

Where I live, contrails are a big feature in the sky, we seem to get them a lot for the combined reasons of flight paths and weather conditions here. So with the sharp cutback in numbers of flights, I'm noticing that skies are more often clear, no contrail debris that turned into patchy high cloud. This may also be a feature in Britain.

GFS lost most of its interest in that colder spell, now looks more like staying in the 10s and perhaps making a run at 2007 for second warmest April? Don't think it will threaten 2011 but could I suppose. 

I would say that your looking favorite now Roger with your 10.6c. ?

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It's not like I have anyone cutting me off on the warm side, but Godber1 smartly came in at 10.5 so my only chance is between my forecast and whatever the halfway point to LG is (think he said 14.0, so that would be umm 12,3, hmm do you see a Dec 2015 parallel here?). 

Oh wait a sec, Dog Toffee came in late with 11.5, so he could easily win with that, I would need 10.6 to 11.0 then he's got 11.1 to 12.7, LG only has 12.8 and above, if it gets there, good on him. Not sure if CET contest points wise, second place and no late penalty beats first and late, it would in the EWP points structure (in fact two days late you would finish third if the others were not late). 

Edited by Roger J Smith
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2 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

GFS lost most of its interest in that colder spell, now looks more like staying in the 10s and perhaps making a run at 2007 for second warmest April? Don't think it will threaten 2011 but could I suppose. 

Familiar story with the GFS losing interest in the colder spell!  Think it’s safe to say my 9.3C guess is pretty much dead in the water now!   This spring does seem to be following a similar pattern to 2007.  Now that most models are forecasting a developing La Niña during the next few months, could we have a similar summer to 2007?!  I would be interested to hear your thoughts Roger.

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I just posted some thoughts in the summer 2020 thread. Basically I don't see much way around a warmer than normal summer but with some variations. Might have a more detailed look at it in May.

The pattern of my last few seasonal forecasts has been ... I say warmer than average, nature goes warmer than my forecast. I am running a sort of halfway house between random and reality. 

In recent years it's hard to go wrong with warmer than normal forecasts. I think at the moment, the best random forecast would be to say +1.5 relative to 1981-2010 or +1.0 relative to 1990-2019. 

I do think there could be a week to ten days of very cool weather at some point before the summer really arrives (late May early June time frame). That may have to satisfy our cold fantasies for 2020.

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12 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

I just posted some thoughts in the summer 2020 thread. Basically I don't see much way around a warmer than normal summer but with some variations. Might have a more detailed look at it in May.

The pattern of my last few seasonal forecasts has been ... I say warmer than average, nature goes warmer than my forecast. I am running a sort of halfway house between random and reality. 

In recent years it's hard to go wrong with warmer than normal forecasts. I think at the moment, the best random forecast would be to say +1.5 relative to 1981-2010 or +1.0 relative to 1990-2019. 

I do think there could be a week to ten days of very cool weather at some point before the summer really arrives (late May early June time frame). That may have to satisfy our cold fantasies for 2020.

Thanks Roger.  I have just read your thoughts in the summer 2020 thread.  An interesting read if perhaps a little disheartening regarding 'cold fantasies' moving forward!  I agree though, I think we just have to accept this is the likelihood now and no matter how much we change our ways, warming will continue.  However, that's certainly not to say I think we shouldn't cut CO2 emissions!

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