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April 2020 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests


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April confirmed as 10.4c https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/mly_cet_mean_sort.txt

6.2c to the 1st 0.3c below the 61 to 90 average 2.1c below the 81 to 10 average __________________________ Current high this month 6.2c to the 1st Current low this month 6.2c to the

Look at that CET anomaly so far, off the scale. Even now at only 11th April, the rest of the year only needs to be 1.11C above the average for it to be the warmest year on record.

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9.5c to the 7th

3.0c above the 61 to 90 average
2.0c above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________

Current high this month 9.5c to the 7th
Current low this month 6.2c to the 1st

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Probably broke that weak record I mentioned for today (8th), it was only 12.5 and the easiest to beat all month. Surprised it lasted this long (1798 was when it happened) but in fact we've been nowhere near it in the past half century, while coming much closer to the equally weak daily low record of 2.4 C (almost broken in 1977 for example). I had a look back and we have rarely been above 10 for the daily mean on the 8th, just one of those statistical flukes, you can see quite a few days on either side that would have broken this weak record. 

My Toronto study has some similar weak records that just survive against the odds. For example, most days in May have hit 90 degrees F for a max, but the 13th had a record of 82 from 1879 and that one has never been broken although it was tied recently. 

Would expect the CET to soar above 10 for a while, then fall back into the 9s in the colder spell the next week. The pattern towards the end of the current GFS run looks fairly average but by then average is near 10. So on this basis, a finish in the mid to high 9s looks a good bet, not ruling out anything between 8 and 11 yet. 

Edited by Roger J Smith
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10.0c to the 8th

3.6c above the 61 to 90 average
2.5c above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________

Current high this month 10.0c to the 8th
Current low this month 6.2c to the 1st

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We'll see at end of month how this gets revised but record certainly set in provisional terms yesterday (13.8 vs 12.5).

Looking ahead, CET could reach 11.5 or even 12 by middle of next week, but would then be likely pushed down to around 10.5 C before stabilizing near end, according to GFS guidance. Since GFS often overdoes cold outbreaks in the time frame of the next one shown (18th-19th) reality may be warmer and who knows, we might take a run at top five, 10.8 to 11.2 might be in the works. 

As to the EWP, at the moment we are only up to 1 lonely mm so far ... the next ten days per GFS could bring 20 mm then days 11-16 might be good for another 10-15. That would take us only to 31-36 mm. You could imagine the last map of the current run leading to a downpour near the end though.

 

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10.4c to the 9th

3.8c above the 61 to 90 average
2.9c above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________

Current high this month 10.4c to the 9th
Current low this month 6.2c to the 1st

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1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

10.4c to the 9th

3.8c above the 61 to 90 average
2.9c above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________

Current high this month 10.4c to the 9th
Current low this month 6.2c to the 1st

Up up and away.....

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4 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Depressing looking at the CET anomalies for this year so far...we are certainly heading for a record breaking year if it carries on in the same vain. 

Unfortunately, with the continuing warming climate, record breaking years are inevitable.

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9 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

10.4c to the 9th

3.8c above the 61 to 90 average
2.9c above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________

Current high this month 10.4c to the 9th
Current low this month 6.2c to the 1st

Looking at the ECM tonight, I think a monthly mean of 11C looks much more likely than 9C. In fact you couldn't call someone crazy for predicting 12C, with the charts as they are right now. 

Scratching my head over why I didn't go higher in my CET prediction. But it's really tough to call a month like April when high pressure is predicted to sit bang over the country for the first two weeks. It can so easily go either way from that point, small shifts to the west or east can make a dramatic difference at this time of year as there's usually still a strong cold pool not far to the north. But aside a couple of days early next week, this one is very emphatically going the warm route.

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10.8c to the 10th

4.2c above the 61 to 90 average
3.2c above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________

Current high this month 10.8c to the 10th
Current low this month 6.2c to the 1st

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1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

10.8c to the 10th

4.2c above the 61 to 90 average
3.2c above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________

Current high this month 10.8c to the 10th
Current low this month 6.2c to the 1st

Anyone know what the record for the warmest first half of April is?

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The highest running CET values from 10th to 15th (answering the above question for 15th) are all in 2011 (eventual warmest April) except 1778 snuck in there for one day: 

10th __ 11.8 (2011)

11th __ 11.7 (2011)

12th __ 11.4 (2011)

13th __ 11.2 (1778)

14th __ 11.0 (2011)

15th __ 11.0 (2011)

Then 1945 edged past 2011 for a while, reaching a high point of 11.5 by 21st, after which 2011 came back into the lead and held it to the end of the month (11.8). 

 

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So this post is in preparation for tomorrow's discussion of the CET value which will likely be above 11 C for eleven days, not quite up to the highest as listed above, of 11.7 in 2011. These are the top running CET values through eleven days (with final values in brackets): 

 1. 2011 __ 11.7 (11.8)

 2. 1926 __ 11.5 ( 9.3)

 3. 1999 __ 11.2 ( 9.5)

 4. 1778 __ 10.8 ( 8.2)

 5. 1894 __ 10.7 ( 9.7)

 6. 2014 __ 10.5 (10.2) 

t7. 1835 __ 10.4 ( 8.6)

t7. 1995 __ 10.4 ( 9.1)

 9. 1892 _ 10.2 ( 7.3)

t10 1815 _ 10.1 ( 8.1)

t10 1827 _ 10.1 ( 8.9)

t10 1859 _ 10.1 ( 7.5)

13. 1803 _ 10.0 ( 9.1)

________________________________

The average end of month value is only 9.0 showing that many of these warm starting Aprils hit a colder spell. Although 1892 and 1894 made the list, 1893 was running behind them at this point and finished well ahead of both with its later warm spell around the 20th. It is evident that most of these warmer early Aprils were back before any of us were around, of the thirteen that were 10.0 or higher, nine were in the books by 1926. The tendency to colder finishes seems to diminish through the series and is not nearly as evident in the recent four which averaged 10.2. 

Edited by Roger J Smith
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1 hour ago, Roger J Smith said:

The highest running CET values from 10th to 15th (answering the above question for 15th) are all in 2011 (eventual warmest April) except 1778 snuck in there for one day: 

10th __ 11.8 (2011)

11th __ 11.7 (2011)

12th __ 11.4 (2011)

13th __ 11.2 (1778)

14th __ 11.0 (2011)

15th __ 11.0 (2011)

Then 1945 edged past 2011 for a while, reaching a high point of 11.5 by 21st, after which 2011 came back into the lead and held it to the end of the month (11.8). 

 

Thanks Roger- this month is certainly going to be up there at the halfway point

Edited by Scorcher
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Yes, by end of today could be in the zone between 2nd and 3rd place 1926 and 1999 possibly. 

Here's the top twelve for the mid-way point (CET after 15 days)...

 1. 2011 __ 11.0

t2. 1926 __ 10.5

t2. 1943 __ 10.5

t4. 1894 __ 10.4

t4. 1945 __ 10.4

t6. 1778 __ 10.2

t6. 1792 __ 10.2

t6. 1798 __ 10.2

t6. 1803 __ 10.2

t6  1869 __ 10.2

t6. 1995 __ 10.2

t12. 2007 _ 10.1

t12. 2014 _ 10.1

__________________________________________

The same number of years (13) in the list but of the original list, six have dropped out by falling below 10.0 and so six new ones appear including 1943, 1945 and 2007.

Edited by Roger J Smith
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11.2c to the 11th

4.5c above the 61 to 90 average
3.6c above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________

Current high this month 11.2c to the 11th
Current low this month 6.2c to the 1st

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6 hours ago, Earthshine said:

Incredible maximum CET anomaly of +6.0C as of yesterday (16.5C absolute maximum temperature): https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_max.html

HadCET_graph_ylybars_uptodate_3.gif

Look at that CET anomaly so far, off the scale. Even now at only 11th April, the rest of the year only needs to be 1.11C above the average for it to be the warmest year on record.

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