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April 2020 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests


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April confirmed as 10.4c https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/mly_cet_mean_sort.txt

6.2c to the 1st 0.3c below the 61 to 90 average 2.1c below the 81 to 10 average __________________________ Current high this month 6.2c to the 1st Current low this month 6.2c to the

Look at that CET anomaly so far, off the scale. Even now at only 11th April, the rest of the year only needs to be 1.11C above the average for it to be the warmest year on record.

Posted Images

April CET extremes and 1981-2010 averages, extreme values of running CET

 

DATE ___ MAX yr _________ MIN yr ________ CET __cum CET ____ Max CET __ Min CET

01 Apr ... 13.3 (1995) ........--0.2 (1917) _________8.3 _____ 8.3 ____ 13.3 (1995) __--0.2 (1917)
02 Apr ... 13.9 (1835) ........--0.5 (1917) _________8.1 _____ 8.2 ____ 13.1 (2011) __--0.35 (1917)

03 Apr ... 15.0 (1926,1946) ..--0.5 (1799) _______ 7.4 _____ 7.9 ____ 12.9 (1926) __--0.1 (1917)
04 Apr ... 15.6 (1946)......... 1.0 (1809&1830) ____ 7.1 _____ 7.7 ____ 13.6 (1946) __ 0.5 (1799&1917)
05 Apr ... 13.3 (1857) ......... 0.4 (1911) _________ 7.1 _____ 7.6 ____ 12.9 (1926) __ 1.2 (1917)

06 Apr ... 15.1 (2011) ......... 0.8 (1911) _________ 7.5 _____ 7.6 ____ 12.8 (1926) __ 1.4 (1917)
07 Apr ... 14.7 (1859) ......... 1.0 (1839) _________ 7.3 _____ 7.5 ____ 12.6 (1926) __ 1.7 (1917)
08 Apr ... 12.5 (1798) ......... 2.4 (1780) _________ 7.2 _____ 7.5 ____ 12.2 (1926) __ 2.0 (1917)
09 Apr ... 13.7 (2017) ......... 1.4 (1812) _________ 7.5 _____ 7.5 __ 11.8 (1926,2011) _ 2.2 (1917)
10 Apr ... 13.5 (1928) ......... 0.5 (1837) _________ 8.2 _____ 7.6 ____ 11.8 (2011) __ 2.1 (1917)

11 Apr ... 16.0 (1869) ......... 1.3 (1978) _________ 8.0 _____ 7.6 ____ 11.7 (2011) __ 2.1 (1917)

12 Apr ... 14.4 (1939) ......... 1.1 (1879) _________ 7.8 _____ 7.6 ____ 11.4 (2011) __ 2.3 (1917)
13 Apr ... 14.6 (1792) ......... 1.1 (1816) _________ 7.5 _____ 7.6 ____ 11.2 (1778) __ 2.4 (1917)
14 Apr ... 16.1 (1869) ......... 0.5 (1966) _________ 8.0 _____ 7.7 ____ 11.0 (2011) __ 2.6 (1917)
15 Apr ... 16.3 (1945) ......... 1.4 (1966) _________ 8.3 _____ 7.7 ____ 11.0 (2011) __ 2.6 (1917)


16 Apr ... 17.0 (1945) ......... 2.0 (1892) _________ 8.5 _____ 7.7 ____ 11.0 (2011) __ 2.8 (1917)
17 Apr ... 14.9 (1865) ......... 2.1 (1793&1812) ____ 8.4 _____ 7.8 __ 11.0 (1945.2011) _ 2.8 (1917)
18 Apr ... 17.0 (2018) ......... 1.7 (1807) _________ 8.1 _____ 7.8 ____ 11.2 (1945) __ 3.0 (1917)
19 Apr ... 17.6 (2018) .........--0.2 (1772) _________8.1 _____ 7.8 ____ 11.4 (1945) __ 3.2 (1837)
20 Apr ... 16.6 (1893) ......... 2.3 (1849) _________ 8.4 _____ 7.8 ____ 11.5 (1945) __ 3.3 (1837)

21 Apr ... 16.4 (1893) ......... 2.4 (1936) _________ 9.2 _____ 7.9 __ 11.5 (1945.2011) _ 3.3 (1837)
22 Apr ... 15.4 (2011) ......... 3.4 (1778) _________ 9.4 _____ 8.0 ____ 11.6 (2011) __ 3.5 (1837)
23 Apr ... 15.9 (1874) ......... 2.6 (1908) _________ 9.7 _____ 8.1 ____ 11.8 (2011) __ 3.6 (1837)
24 Apr ... 15.3 (2007) ......... 0.5 (1908) _________ 9.7 _____ 8.1 ____ 11.9 (2011) __ 3.7 (1837)
25 Apr ... 15.9 (1821) ......... 1.8 (1908) ________ 10.1 _____ 8.2 ____ 11.9 (2011) __ 3.9 (1837)

26 Apr ... 16.1 (1928) ......... 3.3 (1981) ________ 10.1 _____ 8.3 ____ 11.8 (2011) __ 4.1 (1837)
27 Apr ... 16.5 (1866) ......... 2.7 (1919) ________ 10.1 _____ 8.3 ____ 11.8 (2011) __ 4.2 (1837)
28 Apr ... 16.9 (1775) ......... 3.0 (1826) _________ 9.9 _____ 8.4 ____ 11.7 (2011) __ 4.4 (1837)
29 Apr ... 19.7 (1775) ......... 0.7 (1856) _________ 9.9 _____ 8.4 ____ 11.7 (2011) __ 4.5 (1837)
30 Apr ... 17.4 (1775) ......... 2.6 (1945) ________ 10.5 _____ 8.5 ____ 11.8 (2011) __ 4.7 (1701&1837)*

* Min CET on 30th from monthly averages, no daily data for 1701 otherwise. 

===========================================================================

Last year the lowest daily CET was 3.6 on 3rd and 14th, the highest was 14.5 on 20th and 22nd. 

That record high for the 8th looks vulnerable, not very high compared to its surroundings. 

Edited by Roger J Smith
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6.2c to the 1st

0.3c below the 61 to 90 average
2.1c below the 81 to 10 average

__________________________

Current high this month 6.2c to the 1st
Current low this month 6.2c to the 1st

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Looks like the CET will make a steady rise towards 10 C and maybe even reach that value before mid-month, certainly into the 9's looks almost a guarantee at this point. EWP won't be too quick out of the blocks this time. Current GFS 10-day says about 20 mm by 12th and the final six days of the model run have maybe 10 mm more, for 30 mm a little after mid-month. 

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7.6c to the 2nd

1.3c above the 61 to 90 average
0.6c below the 81 to 10 average

__________________________

Current high this month 7.6c to the 2nd
Current low this month 6.2c to the 1st

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6 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Cant believe i was wondering if i had gone too high, looks like if i bust, i will bust on the low side judging by current modelling.

I think there’s a reasonable chance my 9.3C guess could fall short already!  We will see.

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7.9c to the 3rd

1.7c above the 61 to 90 average
Bang on the 81 to 10 average

__________________________

Current high this month 7.9c to the 3rd
Current low this month 6.2c to the 1st

Edited by Summer Sun
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1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

We've all gone too low - this could be a 10 plusser.

Yes, if I had to make a guess now, I would go for 10C plus but still early days.

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20 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

We've all gone too low - this could be a 10 plusser.

Even the first three days haven't been that cold. 

Yes, 10C plus looks a very good bet atm - you never know with high pressure set ups in April though, they often find a way of seeking up to Greenland, let's wait and see

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8.1c to the 4th

1.9c above the 61 to 90 average
0.4c above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________

Current high this month 8.1c to the 4th
Current low this month 6.2c to the 1st

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8.9c to the 5th

2.5c above the 61 to 90 average
1.3c above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________

Current high this month 8.9c to the 5th
Current low this month 6.2c to the 1st

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On 05/04/2020 at 07:50, Man With Beard said:

Even the first three days haven't been that cold. 

Yes, 10C plus looks a very good bet atm - you never know with high pressure set ups in April though, they often find a way of seeking up to Greenland, let's wait and see

The only consolation for me is there are not a great number of guesses higher than mine - so still in the hunt but need to start getting some close guesses soon or i will be out of it by just past half way.

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9.4c to the 6th

3.0c above the 61 to 90 average
1.8c above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________

Current high this month 9.4c to the 6th
Current low this month 6.2c to the 1st

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