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April 2020 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests


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April CET statistics 

__ the recent 39 values are shown in three groups (13,13,13) colour coded (red is warmest, green medium, blue coolest)

__ the 1981-2010 mean is in light green and the 1990-2019 mean is in orange


19.7 ... warmest April daily mean (29th, 1775)

11.8 ... warmest April (2011)
11.2 ... 2nd warmest April (2007)
10.6 ... 3rd warmest April (1865)
10.5 ... 4th warmest April (1943)

10.4 ... 5th warmest April (1798)

10.3 ... 6th warmest Aprils (tied 1893, 1987)

10.2 ... 2014 (tied 8th with 1794, 1796, 1944)

10.1 ... 12th warmest Aprils (1783, 1869, 1945)

10.0 ... 15th warmest Aprils (seven tied, including 2009)

 9.8 ... 2018

 9.6 ... 2003

 9.5 ... 1993

 9.4 ... 1999, 2004

 9.3 ... 2002

 9.1 ... average for 2001-2019, and 1995, 2019
 9.0 ... mean for 14 yrs 1862-1875 (surprise?) and 1997, 2015 

 8.9 ... average for 1990-2019  and average for 1991-2019  ... 2005, 2017

 8.8 ... 2010
 8.7 ... 1992

 8.6 ... 1982, 2006
 8.5 ... average for 1981-2010 and 1996
 8.3 ... 1985

 8.2 ... 1988

 8.1 ... average for 1971-2000 (and 20th century 1901-2000) (also 1971-2000) ... 1984, 1994
 8.0 ... average for 19th century 1801-1900 ... 1990

 7.9 ... average for all data 1659-2019 (7.946) also 1961-1990, also 18th century 1701-1800 ... 1991, 2008

 7.8 ... 1981, 2000  

 7.7 ... 1998, 2001 

 7.5 ... 2013, 2016 

 7.3 ... average for 1659-1700

 7.2 ... 2012
 

 6.8 ... 1983

 6.6 ... 1989

 5.8 ... 18th coldest (tied) 1986 (coldest of past half century)
 5.4 ... fifth coldest (tied) -- 1917 (coldest 20th century) also 1743,1770,1799
 5.2 ... third coldest (tied) -- 1782 and 1809
 4.7 ... coldest Aprils (1701 and 1837)

--0.2 ... coldest April daily mean second half (19th, 1772)
--0.5 ... coldest April daily mean (2nd, 1917 and 3rd, 1799)

_________________________________________________________________

Enter your forecast for APRIL 2020 by the penalty-free deadline of 00:00 1st of April (end of Tuesday 31st March)

... or take a penalty during the first three days of April for a late entry.

 

_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ ================================================= _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _

EWP contest for April 2020

The data set in use for the contest (Hadley EWP) with data from 1766 to 2019.

Contest asks for a prediction of April precip in mm. These are the record and average values:

149.9 __ 2012 __ wettest 1766 to 2018 

142.6 __ 2000 __ 2nd wettest 

139.0 __ 1782 __ was the record until 2000 (now third wettest)

135.6 __ 1818 __ was 2nd wettest until 2000 (now fourth wettest)

130.9 __ 1998 __ went from 3rd to 4th to 5th wettest April within 14 years.

 64.8 __ average 1981-2010

 63.3 __ average 1990-2019

 58.9 __ average all data 1766 to 2019

 10.4 __ 2007 __ driest in 1981-2019 period (1984 was 10.7 and 2011 was 11.6)

 07.1 __ 1938 __ driest 1766 to 2019 

recent April EWP values ... 2019_45.9 mm, 2018 _ 91.4 mm, 2017 _ 19.9 mm, 2016 _ 73.3 mm, 2015 _ 28.1 mm,

... 2014 _ 63.8 mm, 2013_ 34.7 mm, 2012_ 149.9 mm, 2011_ 11.6 mm, 2010_ 30.1 mm, 2009_ 48.0 mm.

____________________________________ ^ ___________________________________

Enter this contest by the same deadline, 10.0 points for closest forecast, 0.2 penalty points per day late (first three days of April).

You can add your EWP forecast to your CET temperature forecast. 

Good luck !! (and stay healthy)

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April confirmed as 10.4c https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/mly_cet_mean_sort.txt

6.2c to the 1st 0.3c below the 61 to 90 average 2.1c below the 81 to 10 average __________________________ Current high this month 6.2c to the 1st Current low this month 6.2c to the

Look at that CET anomaly so far, off the scale. Even now at only 11th April, the rest of the year only needs to be 1.11C above the average for it to be the warmest year on record.

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An easterly month. Cold start with LP moving N to S in North sea down eastern flank of HP to out WNW.  HP mainly centred to N with easterly flow but drifting east later to bring warmer feel probably around 3rd week then cold end to month.  Generally dry overall but snow possible in E and NE mainly

 

7.4c and 38mm

BFTP

 

  

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14C  :oldsad:  Last sub 5C April in 1837.  Last sub 6C April in 1986.  Last sub 7C April in 1989.  Last sub 7.5C April in 2012.

200mm of Atlantic garbage!

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For the first half of the month, winds generally from the north and east, staying generally dry and settled, with not a lot of rain. Something warmer and wetter with our first proper thundery spell of the year towards the last week, and winds turning more to the south / SW..

9.3°C and 45.9mm please

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9.6*C please and 40mm of rain and snow.

Cold start I feel - one or two possible Arctic Northerlies bringing some hail, sleet and snow to places. Warming up significantly as the month progresses. Temperatures to reach 30*C on 27th with records being smashed. 

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Posted (edited)

10.6 and 72.2 mm rain -- some very warm spells likely to offset a rather cold start. 

(note to J10 -- temp edit on March 31 entry just after Don posted)

Sadly March turned out a bit underdone for my outlook, although the concept of a block turning warmer has recently shown some merit, it was a case of too little and not sustained to end of month apparently (although there's a faint tendency to downgrades of the most robust cold scenarios we saw a few days ago). It did pay off in the EWP however, violating the agreement that J10 and I have, to do well in each other's contests only. ?

Edited by Roger J Smith
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I have a feeling april will be a game of two halves. Cold and warm interludes, but ending up slightly cooler overall. That said, we will get a warm dry spell, and maybe the first thundery spell towards the close.

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