Tornado threat 18th March onward

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Some nice explanations of the in depth nature of trying to understand storm behaviour 

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Dorsetbred]

May has been a quiet month compared to April as the figures below show, even with a few days left of the month..below average compared to previous years, compared to last year only reaching about 20% of the count..

Edited May 27, 2020 by Dorsetbred

[Nick L]

49 minutes ago, Dorsetbred said:

May has been a quiet month compared to April as the figures below show, even with a few days left of the month..below average compared to previous years, compared to last year only reaching about 20% of the count..

Even worse than 2018, wow. 

[Paul Sherman]

And most of those are double or triple reports - Shocking Month could even be actual figures below 100

[Paul Sherman]

Stat Fact as well if the SPC dont upgrade to Moderate today then it is almost certain this will be the first ever May that no Moderate or High Risks have been issued by the SPC since they started doing the Risk Levels.

Abysmal Year for sure

[Nick L]

8 hours ago, Paul Sherman said:

Stat Fact as well if the SPC dont upgrade to Moderate today then it is almost certain this will be the first ever May that no Moderate or High Risks have been issued by the SPC since they started doing the Risk Levels.

Abysmal Year for sure

That's an amazing stat. What a year to miss. 

[MikeUpjohn]

As much as it pains me to not have been out, I think it was the right year to miss. Fingers crossed 2021 has a kick ass May!

 

[Zak M]

Big storms currently in the Gulf of Mexico

   

[Paul Sherman]

VERY Active period coming up in the USA and more especially the Northern Plains. Starting today with a frontal boundary storms should be focused through Minnesota and parts of Wisconsin and Illinois.

Much better risk on Thursday and Saturday coming up in Nebraska.

Then the 500mb flow is looking favourable from the 6th until the following weekend across Co/Ne/Wy/Sd and some of the Central Plains.

At least some interesting weather to follow through the riots

[Paul Sherman]

Saturday and Sunday still shaping up to be the season savers by the looks of things.

Should be the first Moderate Risk issued for either day since the last week of April.

Some of the soundings are showing some violent tornado potential in parts of South Dakota on Saturday

One to watch........

[ChannelThunder]

Those SPC outlooks would be filling me with excitement if, like last year, I was out there right now! There are some glorious northern plains chase opportunities there.

Looking at this stuff only makes the itch to get back out there next year stronger! Fingers crossed.

[Zak M]

This made me chuckle

(via @wx.memes on Instagram)

[Mr Frost]

Waterspout/Tornado near downtown Orlando yesterday.

Meanwhile up in South Dakota...

Stunning. 

[matt111]

Another tweet from Orlando yesterday

 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

The Dakotas into Minnesota again seeing a tornado risk. Could well be another Derecho in the making! 

[Nick L]

So the net result was a Sheriffnado and a couple of radar indicated reports. I was due to be flying out today, bullet dodged with this season 

[Paul Sherman]

My absolute favourite type of set-up over in the USA today and the perfect place for it as well. Ironically this looks like the most solid set-up for tornadoes since late April in South Central Oklahoma. Everything is in place including shear, instability lift and moisture (SLIM) the 4 ingredients needed for Tornadoes.

The Set-Up

An advancing Surface Low moving across the top of Kansas today will pull in low 70's dewpoints and wrap it into the low pressure centre, the trick today is to keep an eye on surface obs throughout the day making sure you stick to the east or north east of the surface low. Storms will be quite low topped at 25,000 to 35,000 feet. This Set up is also known as a Cold Core Set Up. The SRH injected into the low will be perfect for tornado producing Supercells and add into it the topography of the area near the Flint Hills and added Vorticity gets added into the mix. I can certainly see a Cyclic Tornado producing storm today. D/DP Spreads are perfect with the magical 10 spread of 80/70 with LCL's very low around 250 metres meaning low bases. HRRR has been showing initiation around 19-20z today with peak maturity around 21-01z. These kind of storms tend to be very pretty with little to no anvils and crisp cauliflower tops with weak Tornadoes under dark bases, occasionally you do get quite strong EF2 to borderline EF3 Tornadoes with these kind of storms as well though if something becomes Cyclic and uses all the SRH.

Ironically this would have been the changeover day in Denver between Tours 3 and 4 and I would have been absolutely screaming profanities knowing this is falling on a day which I believe could be a season saver for 99% of the chase community.

Streams should be really good tonight for this event

My Target area is posted below in the red box

 

 

[Allseasons-Si]

3 hours ago, Paul Sherman said:

My absolute favourite type of set-up over in the USA today and the perfect place for it as well. Ironically this looks like the most solid set-up for tornadoes since late April in South Central Oklahoma. Everything is in place including shear, instability lift and moisture (SLIM) the 4 ingredients needed for Tornadoes.

The Set-Up

An advancing Surface Low moving across the top of Kansas today will pull in low 70's dewpoints and wrap it into the low pressure centre, the trick today is to keep an eye on surface obs throughout the day making sure you stick to the east or north east of the surface low. Storms will be quite low topped at 25,000 to 35,000 feet. This Set up is also known as a Cold Core Set Up. The SRH injected into the low will be perfect for tornado producing Supercells and add into it the topography of the area near the Flint Hills and added Vorticity gets added into the mix. I can certainly see a Cyclic Tornado producing storm today. D/DP Spreads are perfect with the magical 10 spread of 80/70 with LCL's very low around 250 metres meaning low bases. HRRR has been showing initiation around 19-20z today with peak maturity around 21-01z. These kind of storms tend to be very pretty with little to no anvils and crisp cauliflower tops with weak Tornadoes under dark bases, occasionally you do get quite strong EF2 to borderline EF3 Tornadoes with these kind of storms as well though if something becomes Cyclic and uses all the SRH.

Ironically this would have been the changeover day in Denver between Tours 3 and 4 and I would have been absolutely screaming profanities knowing this is falling on a day which I believe could be a season saver for 99% of the chase community.

Streams should be really good tonight for this event

My Target area is posted below in the red box

 

 

Is that their time or ours Paul?

if theirs then i am going to miss the action as i have to call it a night at 11pm,up at 04:45.

[Paul Sherman]

Thats our time so quite an early show today

[Allseasons-Si]

2 hours ago, Paul Sherman said:

Thats our time so quite an early show today

Cheers Paul.

[Allseasons-Si]

Watching Brad Arnold on that cell North of Hebron,Nebraska that's just become severe warned and has a slight hook on it.

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NWS radar image loop of Base Reflectivity from Hastings, NE

RADAR.WEATHER.GOV

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Latest weather radar images from the National Weather Service

 

Edited June 9, 2020 by Allseasons-si

[Allseasons-Si]

That's some inflow scud sucking into the storm from from the right to the opposing storm coming from the left. 

then he moves

Edited June 9, 2020 by Allseasons-si

[Allseasons-Si]

Some proper movement on Eric kelly's stream just then.

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Watch live feeds as storm chasers try to see if their target verifies. Tornadoes, hurricanes, blizzards, and floods - we've got it all and more, live on our site and available as video on demand.

 

Edited June 9, 2020 by Allseasons-si

[Allseasons-Si]

Well it looks like i am goin to miss out on the action,off to bed now.