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http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

The high Arctic just doesn't seem to want to cool down? (unlike here!!!) and we're less than 100,000 away from being 2nd lowest on record?

A very interesting Season this time but a continuation of the trend with the addition of the loss of our thick perenniall 'Banker ice' to the north of Greenland?

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The anomaly continues to grow, NSIDC extent now 570k below the next lowest year, and below the minima of 1979, 80, 81, 82, 83, 86, 86, 87, 88, 89, 92, 94, 96, 97 and 2001. We're 1 million km^2 below

Your more than welcomed to post on this thread but even if the UK does not always have the heat, sadly elsewhere across the globe most certainly does.  MIA - From what I gathered, you thought the

Using previous 20 years melt rates from August 26th, all produce the 2nd lowest minimum on record. Here's a slow animation from the last few days, highlighting the continued push north of t

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2 hours ago, Gray-Wolf said:

image.thumb.png.e5f8e0c54f999ed1d223a0cc2608b2b3.png

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

The high Arctic just doesn't seem to want to cool down? (unlike here!!!) and we're less than 100,000 away from being 2nd lowest on record?

A very interesting Season this time but a continuation of the trend with the addition of the loss of our thick perenniall 'Banker ice' to the north of Greenland?

The temperatures over the basin is not all that much different to previous years, the issue is the positive anaomolies over the Barants which means the average line can't drop until the winds switch direction and there is no real sign of that happening. Would not surprise me if that red line barely drops anytime soon. Also that ice retreat is getting ever further northwards...

The temperatures on the Pacific side are more normal the Beaufort sea could have a quick refreeze this year. 

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Stunning animations, really showed just how quick the Siberian ice has melted this year and its impacts that is having right now. I knew the Siberian side was in trouble at the start of the melt season but its still shocking too see.

Extent is 2nd lowest and we are at 3.89 on JAXA, just how much more melting is there to come remains to be seen but given the current weather conditions and forecast, it's really hard too hear the bells ringing for the end of the melt season just yet. 

Oh and the ice edge has entered 85 degrees north, how close will it get to the pole!? And how much more of the ice edge will reach this latitude point. 

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40 minutes ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Big drop in the NSIDC extent today, down 196k. This puts 2020 at 2nd lowest year on record, and 664k off the 2012 minimum.

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The NSIDC extent data has been to say the least really inconsistent quite frankly, as I said on the ASIF in the past, for such an leading organisation on sea ice, they should really have better sensors for their extent data. 

Even if extent stalls or slow down on JAXA, expect the NSIDC to still show big drops as its trying to catch up with other data sets. I am aware it uses a 5 day average but even so, it often means its playing catch up. 

On 16/06/2020 at 13:57, jtay said:

 

No idea how to remove that quote box, accidently click the quote button and that has shown up. 

 

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1 minute ago, Geordiesnow said:

The NSIDC extent data has been to say the least really inconsistent quite frankly, as I said on the ASIF in the past, for such an leading organisation on sea ice, they should really have better sensors for their extent data. 

Even if extent stalls or slow down on JAXA, expect the NSIDC to still show big drops as its trying to catch up with other data sets. I am aware it uses a 5 day average but even so, it often means its playing catch up. 

No idea how to remove that quote box, accidently click the quote button and that has shown up. 

 

Fame, at last.

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24 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

The NSIDC extent data has been to say the least really inconsistent quite frankly, as I said on the ASIF in the past, for such an leading organisation on sea ice, they should really have better sensors for their extent data. 

Even if extent stalls or slow down on JAXA, expect the NSIDC to still show big drops as its trying to catch up with other data sets. I am aware it uses a 5 day average but even so, it often means its playing catch up. 

 

The NSIDC stuff is an attempt to maintain a longer term consistent records, so their data is much lower resolution and more prone to big day to day changes than the JAXA/ADS stuff. They do have access to the better sensors and processing methods and use them for other products, but not in the official long term data set.
We also get the first of the month effect, as the new land and ocean masks are applied to filter out erroneous data each month. That definitely contributed to the big drop, but doesn't explain the whole lot.

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I just can't believe how much Atlantic faction has occurred this year, looks slightly worse than 2013 in respect to the ice edge. Its even more remarkable as at the end of the winter season we had quite a bit of ice in the Barants and even by the end of June there was no signs of what was to come really. If you asked me 10 years ago whether the ice edge reaching the pole would come from the Atlantic side I would never put any chances on that being the case but it does seem an increasingly possibility that could happen. 

Forecasts are now looking stormy for the basin but yet again, the Siberian side looks way above average whilst the Beaufort looks cooler, may see some ice spread/growth here soon perhaps. 

I dread to think what the JAXA numbers will be when it comes back online, down to 3.6 potentially? 

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Any 'rough weather' will potentially spread out the ice but also toss the smaller bits in an endless supply of summer warmed waters (mixing up deeper warmth if the waves are big enough?)

As for 'Barrentsz'? The Atlantification of our side of the basin means no halocline left to protect the ice from below just an endless feed of warmer waters flowing up on the end of the N.A.D. that is no longer insulated from the ice above by a deep Halocline layer.

In the late 30's it was still impossible to travel into the basin from our side (the whalers went up between Greenland/Canada) due to multi storey blocks of ice blocking entry....

This year Polarstern went to the pole via that route.....

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50 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

Any 'rough weather' will potentially spread out the ice but also toss the smaller bits in an endless supply of summer warmed waters (mixing up deeper warmth if the waves are big enough?)

As for 'Barrentsz'? The Atlantification of our side of the basin means no halocline left to protect the ice from below just an endless feed of warmer waters flowing up on the end of the N.A.D. that is no longer insulated from the ice above by a deep Halocline layer.

In the late 30's it was still impossible to travel into the basin from our side (the whalers went up between Greenland/Canada) due to multi storey blocks of ice blocking entry....

This year Polarstern went to the pole via that route.....

SSTS don't look all that high across most of the Pacific side of the basin seeing as the ice was slower to melt there this year, the real warmth is in the Laptev and Barants/Kara seas, how long will it take for those areas to freeze and perhaps in the Barants sea case, will it freeze at all. I do fear Atlantic lows could make there way further north this year given the huge amount of open water there will be. 

I'm also fearing what the JAXA numbers will be like, we could be alot closer to 2012 than I first thought. Extent numbers could get ugly this Autumn. 

 

 

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Bit surprised there is no posts in here because JAXA updated and we are 2nd lowest at 3.5 million which is astonishing and looking at the forecasts, I am struggling too see much refreeze potential. Siberia is still looking well above average and snow cover is bound to be well below normal for September. 

There has been ssome cold air forming but guess where its heading? Of course Arctic Canada...such a waste. 

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15 hours ago, Geordiesnow said:

Bit surprised there is no posts in here because JAXA updated and we are 2nd lowest at 3.5 million which is astonishing and looking at the forecasts, I am struggling too see much refreeze potential. Siberia is still looking well above average and snow cover is bound to be well below normal for September. 

There has been ssome cold air forming but guess where its heading? Of course Arctic Canada...such a waste. 

Yeah, seems like a broad minimum could be in the offing, with compression on the Laptev edge beginning once again and proper refreeze being restricted to the CAA.

Here's an animation from the last 5 days

Animation9_11small.thumb.gif.ffad5be1e37b61170855a15dae07f410.gif

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Even more retreat on the Atlantic edge, the worldview is just stunning at how close to the pole a TRUE ice edge is. As I said in the past, 10 years ago no one would probably think an ice free pole could come from the Atlantic side of the basin but one year, it will happen. Just more remarkable when you consider just how much ice there was on the Atlantic side of the basin by the end of June! 

Of course this just continues the speculation on just how this will affect winter weather patterns in the Arctic, with warm open water will mean higher temperatures which could mean a weaker PV which in turn could mean Atlantic lows heading very far north as we saw in 2016/17.

Oh and Siberia is at record lows for snow cover also and because the ice edge is so far away, SSTS are very warm and the weather is more like summer than Autumn in the Laptev sea then I'm revising my prediction that the Laptev won't fully freeze until December at the earliest. We need 2 arms of ice to develop before the Laptev can fully freeze over, one in the ESS and another towards the islands near the Kara sea so effectively closing the door to the Atlantic and Pacific therefore everything inside can refreeze fairly quickly. 

Cant see anything but record lows this Autumn I'm afraid. 

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Yes, I wouldn't be surprised to see monthly land station temperature anomalies of around 10C in the Kara Sea region for October, rising to around 15C for November, as the high SSTs take effect and the refreeze in the Kara Sea ends up somewhat delayed, rather like happened in 2012 and 2016, but it has potential to be even more extreme this year with the higher SSTs.

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2 hours ago, Thundery wintry showers said:

Yes, I wouldn't be surprised to see monthly land station temperature anomalies of around 10C in the Kara Sea region for October, rising to around 15C for November, as the high SSTs take effect and the refreeze in the Kara Sea ends up somewhat delayed, rather like happened in 2012 and 2016, but it has potential to be even more extreme this year with the higher SSTs.

Temperatures across most of the basin are already 10C above average in September. The models want to constantly cool it down but the current reality means it gets watered down. 

We should get the opposite affect during October where temperatures will remain high whilst there is open water but if the ice forms then the models will be forecasting too high temperatures. 

Either way, I think extent numbers could get quite ugly this Autumn unless we start getting some favourable set ups. 

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