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10 hours ago, Geordiesnow said:

Admittedly there might be some fohen affect from Greenland but 'heat'? Come on BFTV, let's not mistake higher than average upper air temperatures and mistake them for potential high temperatures at ice levels. We are hardly talking about plus 10C upper air temperatures with 30C Alaskan or Siberian heat hitting the basin here. 

The southerly flow through fram Stright interests me more, it's persistent and should be a good thing for the ice HOWEVER given the situation to the NE of Greenland and the Atlantic edge being so far north, is it starting to become a double edge sword type of situation where it could have a negative impact on the ice? 

In general the outlook looks fairly uneventful for the ice but given the diffused ice near the Chukchi and what happened so much far this year then never rule anything out. 

Heat is a relative term, right? Heat in the UK isn't heat in Kuwait. Similar for the north of Greenland. This is an anomalously warm air mass and will continue to keep temperatures above freezing and eat away at the remaining volume at a faster than normal rate.

The southerly flow is a good thing for the ice only in terms of extent and area based on previous decades of dipole anomaly studies. It hard for me to see how it will help the ice this time around. it's surrounded by warmer waters and +ve temperatures anomalies persist over the remaining ice. I don't think we need dramatic anti-cyclones or powerful storms for conditions to be poor for ice retention.

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The anomaly continues to grow, NSIDC extent now 570k below the next lowest year, and below the minima of 1979, 80, 81, 82, 83, 86, 86, 87, 88, 89, 92, 94, 96, 97 and 2001. We're 1 million km^2 below

Your more than welcomed to post on this thread but even if the UK does not always have the heat, sadly elsewhere across the globe most certainly does.  MIA - From what I gathered, you thought the

Using previous 20 years melt rates from August 26th, all produce the 2nd lowest minimum on record. Here's a slow animation from the last few days, highlighting the continued push north of t

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4 hours ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Heat is a relative term, right? Heat in the UK isn't heat in Kuwait. Similar for the north of Greenland. This is an anomalously warm air mass and will continue to keep temperatures above freezing and eat away at the remaining volume at a faster than normal rate.

The southerly flow is a good thing for the ice only in terms of extent and area based on previous decades of dipole anomaly studies. It hard for me to see how it will help the ice this time around. it's surrounded by warmer waters and +ve temperatures anomalies persist over the remaining ice. I don't think we need dramatic anti-cyclones or powerful storms for conditions to be poor for ice retention.

Yes, there is a warm air mass aloft but not at ice level. Your post said there is heat over the thickest part of the ice yet looking at surface temperatures, they are pegged at or near zero. What was your post implying? It certainly won't have an impact on extent and I don't think it will impact on volume either because the temperatures at ice level is around zero. 

I just look at the weather charts and there is nothing that should be too alarming for the ice, unlike in July when we had that persistent block. Given the weather conditions then I say a record low is becoming less likely but given how diffused the ice pack is on the Pacific side then 2nd lowest is certainly possible. 

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28 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

Yes, there is a warm air mass aloft but not at ice level. Your post said there is heat over the thickest part of the ice yet looking at surface temperatures, they are pegged at or near zero. What was your post implying? It certainly won't have an impact on extent and I don't think it will impact on volume either because the temperatures at ice level is around zero. 

I just look at the weather charts and there is nothing that should be too alarming for the ice, unlike in July when we had that persistent block. Given the weather conditions then I say a record low is becoming less likely but given how diffused the ice pack is on the Pacific side then 2nd lowest is certainly possible. 

They are pegged near 0C due to the latent heat of fusion of ice, not because of a lack of heat. Any surface heat goes into melting the ice, not rising the surface air temperatures. No matter how much surface heat there is, the temperature won't rise above 0C much until the ice has mostly melted. It's the same reason why the summer temperatures in the DMI 80N graphs never travel much above 0C

The 850hPa anomalies over the ice for the next 5 days are similar to what the UK will experience, which provides a sense of how anomalous the air mass is. This isn't to say that we are guaranteed to reach lowest on record, or even 2nd lowest, but that the conditions currently are far from being as friendly to the ice as they appear at first glance.

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1 hour ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

They are pegged near 0C due to the latent heat of fusion of ice, not because of a lack of heat. Any surface heat goes into melting the ice, not rising the surface air temperatures. No matter how much surface heat there is, the temperature won't rise above 0C much until the ice has mostly melted. It's the same reason why the summer temperatures in the DMI 80N graphs never travel much above 0C

The 850hPa anomalies over the ice for the next 5 days are similar to what the UK will experience, which provides a sense of how anomalous the air mass is. This isn't to say that we are guaranteed to reach lowest on record, or even 2nd lowest, but that the conditions currently are far from being as friendly to the ice as they appear at first glance.

Temperatures over the ice do go over zero when near open water and in particular any landmasses hence my example I gave that we are not looking at plus 10C upper air temperatures and 30C heat at ground levels hitting the basin. Any 'heat' above is very unlikely to affect the ice at that location where the positive anaomolies are, it might do in terms of volume but I got my doubts on that one as supposed thicker ice is more resilient to higher temperatures. 

If the positive anaomolies was over diffused ice and in an area near open water then that will be more noteworthy because its affects on the ice will bound to be more notable.

The melt season is far from over and regardless where we end up, it has not been a good melt season for the ice and the record lows in July is another sign of faster ice retreat. 

 

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15 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

Temperatures over the ice do go over zero when near open water and in particular any landmasses hence my example I gave that we are not looking at plus 10C upper air temperatures and 30C heat at ground levels hitting the basin. Any 'heat' above is very unlikely to affect the ice at that location where the positive anaomolies are, it might do in terms of volume but I got my doubts on that one as supposed thicker ice is more resilient to higher temperatures. 

If the positive anaomolies was over diffused ice and in an area near open water then that will be more noteworthy because its affects on the ice will bound to be more notable.

The melt season is far from over and regardless where we end up, it has not been a good melt season for the ice and the record lows in July is another sign of faster ice retreat. 

 

I think we're largely in agreement!

There isn't much to suggest that there is only warm air aloft, but the warmth is only manifesting itself in terms of ice melt rather than raising surface air temperatures, due to the nature of large continuous ice surfaces. When we have strong surface level winds and warm enough surface temperatures, the air can rise a little more above 0C, as occurred last week with the 80N temperature. Similar on the edges of the ice pack.

Basically, surface air temperatures aren't a good measure to the air mass warmth in these situations, especially away from ice free land masses. This is why the 850hPa or 925hPa values are used in analysis by NSIDC and such. No expectation that this will cause dramatic changes in extent and area, as you say, but it will keep the volume melt momentum up. As volume is basically at joint record low values, this may have growing implications during August and early September, even for extent and area.

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Canada just lost 2/3rd of its last 'intact' ice shelf;

2020-08-06T233003Z_1_LYNXNPEG751TE_RTROP
WWW.ARCTICTODAY.COM

The last fully intact ice shelf in the Canadian Arctic has collapsed, losing more than 40 percent of its area in just two days at the end of July, researchers said...

 

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14 hours ago, Gray-Wolf said:

Canada just lost 2/3rd of its last 'intact' ice shelf;

2020-08-06T233003Z_1_LYNXNPEG751TE_RTROP
WWW.ARCTICTODAY.COM

The last fully intact ice shelf in the Canadian Arctic has collapsed, losing more than 40 percent of its area in just two days at the end of July, researchers said...

 

Oh dear....

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A bigger drop of 68K on today's JAXA site. To put it in some perspective though, 2012 is now almost 200K ahead of this year which really highlighted just how unprecedented those extent reductions were then.

Whilst I'm not expecting similar this year, the ice pack in the Chukchi part really looks prime for quite large drops, it's heavily diffused and larger open water areas are appearing. I suspect very soon the ice shape will look quite a bit different even though weather and SSTS are nothing to write home about. 

What I am interested in is just how persistent those southerly winds up to the pole are forecast to be, usually if winds are blowing from the south between Greenland and Svalbard it may not be a bad thing as it reduces fram export significantly but with the ice edge so far North and the ice looking thin albeit not really diffused then you do wonder just how far north that ice edge will get.

September and significantly colder temperatures can't come soon enough for the ice. Still maintaining the prediction the final extent figure will be at around 3.7 million, just can't see how it will finish above last years total, any extra ice in the Beaufort will surely not be enough. 

Edited by Geordiesnow
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On the off chance this hasn't been seen

Past evidence supports complete loss of Arctic sea-ice by 2035

The paper in question

Sea-ice-free Arctic during the Last Interglacial supports fast future loss

Abstract
The Last Interglacial (LIG), a warmer period 130,000–116,000 years before present, is a potential analogue for future climate change. Stronger LIG summertime insolation at high northern latitudes drove Arctic land summer temperatures 4–5 °C higher than in the pre-industrial era. Climate model simulations have previously failed to capture these elevated temperatures, possibly because they were unable to correctly capture LIG sea-ice changes. Here, we show that the latest version of the fully coupled UK Hadley Center climate model (HadGEM3) simulates a more accurate Arctic LIG climate, including elevated temperatures. Improved model physics, including a sophisticated sea-ice melt-pond scheme, result in a complete simulated loss of Arctic sea ice in summer during the LIG, which has yet to be simulated in past generations of models. This ice-free Arctic yields a compelling solution to the long-standing puzzle of what drove LIG Arctic warmth and supports a fast retreat of future Arctic summer sea ice.

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Latest PIOMAS data is out with the mid-month update. 2020 is 3rd lowest currently, with little difference between the bottom 5 still. The volume loss rate slowed in the first week of August, allowing 2020 to slip to 4th lowest, but has accelerated again in the 2nd week, closing the gap to 2012 at the bottom.
Looking at the volume animation from Wipneus, the coarse grid used in the PIOMAS data means it has failed to capture the ice loss of the Beaufort and Chukchi regions recently. Might have the potential for rapid volume drops when they are incorporated into the rest of August.

 

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image.thumb.png.d1650aeeb05727f5b7d31b69caf7725b.png

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

DMI 80N showing another departure from the 'average'?

Is this indicating the amount of open water now in the 80N region?

With most of the ice only 1 to 1.5m thick are we seeing seepage of ocean from a fragile pack that keeps breaking into ever smaller floes?

The Arctic Ocean took on a lot of energy over July so will we see 'bottom melt' act more aggressively this year than previous?

Thin, fragile ice (and the potential for storms) could mean that this 'warmed ocean' gets to continually interact with the remaining ice over the rest of ice season leading to larger losses than we are accustomed to at this time of year.....very interesting end to the season ahead! (IMHO!)

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I do think your right GW, it's down to the amount of open water with how far the Atlantic front has retreated and how warm the SSTS are.

We may see some more spectacular events with that DMI chart. If the models are right, we could see a very deep low hitting Svalbard and plenty of compacting winds. Not only that we got a Beaufort high delivering heat in the coming days which could really finish off most of the remaining diffused ice there. The Chukchi melt has shocked me just how quickly that has went in a matter of a week. 

I can't see anything other than 2nd place, 3.7 is my bet but with the upcoming weather pattern looking a bit of a shocker for the sea ice then that could be optimistic. As ever there is still a little bit of time for change but that Svalbard deep low is showing on all the model runs and so is the Beaufort high so it's going to be an interesting watch. 

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And now it's completely gone in terms of strength and it looks like a bog standard low to me. Hopefully the outputs will stick to that. 

I am a little dubious whether those pics are right at the pole, I suspect they look to be more in the area of diffused ice to the NE of Greenland which is big news in itself. The ice looking at worldview right at the pole looks compact too me but cloud cover can sometimes make things look more flattering. 

We just gone below 2019 and 2019 losses are much slower now, will 2020 follow suit? As I say how much ice survives in the Beaufort sea could be key but I still reckon we will finish below 2019 and continue the obvious of ice melting away faster and faster. 

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35 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

And now it's completely gone in terms of strength and it looks like a bog standard low to me. Hopefully the outputs will stick to that. 

I am a little dubious whether those pics are right at the pole, I suspect they look to be more in the area of diffused ice to the NE of Greenland which is big news in itself. The ice looking at worldview right at the pole looks compact too me but cloud cover can sometimes make things look more flattering. 

We just gone below 2019 and 2019 losses are much slower now, will 2020 follow suit? As I say how much ice survives in the Beaufort sea could be key but I still reckon we will finish below 2019 and continue the obvious of ice melting away faster and faster. 

Here's the article about the MOSAIC expeditions reaching the N. Pole. They have more pics and descriptions of the ice
https://www.awi.de/en/about-us/service/press/press-release/mosaic-expedition-reaches-the-north-pole.html

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NSIDC daily extent just dipped below the min from 2017 and equaled 2018, so that's all but 8 of the previous 41 minima either beaten or equaled.
Projecting Arctic sea ice extent from August 21st, using losses from the previous 20 years, none produce a minimum below 2012. The average melt rate would place 2020 at 2nd lowest, while the slowest melt would result in 5th lowest. 19/20 produce the 2nd lowest minimum on record

Proj22.thumb.jpg.a1755481c16f907e037dbeefcc91e365.jpg

We are currently 1,290,000 km2 above the 2012 minimum. To beat 2012, extent losses would need to average at least 50,000 km2 per day from now until September 16th (2012 minimum date). The previous record loss for this period was 36,000 km2 per day in 2008.

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With ice so thin and fragmented in many peripheral areas (and within parts of the CAB?) it will not take much to see the ocean stirred up below (no need for a GAC....even a 990mb low could end up driving swells & tumbling ice?).

Any low that grows over the basin in the coming weeks will potentially cause loss to spike again reducing the gap in extent between 2012 and this year....... this is still far from over.....the portly feminine performer isn't even in the dressing room yet!

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That animation is amazing how the Chukchi ice just rapidly melted away*. I thought there might of been more of an arm of ice stretching towards Wrangel Island with a 'dip' where open water would be but that is not the case at all.

Area according to the NSIDC is still going down steadily so in theory there is no real signs of a slow down unfortunately. 

* Worldview does show some ice where Bremen indicate there's none but clearly must be under the 15% threshold and for all intents and purposes, it is open water. 

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I seem to recall that as early as 07' I was raising concerns over the destruction of the Halocline and the unleashing of the heat below it making both the formation and maintenance of Sea Ice very different from in the old days of the Arctic.

It appears I am not alone in those fears;

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/08/growing-underwater-heat-blob-speeds-demise-arctic-sea-ice?utm_campaign=NewsfromScience%3DTwitter%3DJHubbard#

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The Atlantic edge is getting very close to 85 degrees north, its something I just did not expect back in May. Not because the ice was thick but I thought after last year, the ice may of been more resistant but that has not been the case. 

The current weather pattern does seem to be delaying much cold developing, I can't believe how much of a cold bias the GFS in particular has. I think the models want to naturally cool down but the reality is so much different as there is warm SSTS to deal with. We shall see if those lower thicknesses does develop despite the high still being the dominant factor. I suspect those cooler uppers will moderate somewhat by the time we get to zero hours. 

The current set up does however should favour that ice in the Beaufort to more or less survive the melt season now. Perhaps the only bit of good news in otherwise a dire but interesting melt season. 

Of course extent is still dropping away and we are getting closer to 2019 value and having an extent under 4 million on JAXA and with a lack of any real cold forming then we could be a comfortable 2nd lowest. I'm still predicting 3.7 million. 

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Using previous 20 years melt rates from August 26th, all produce the 2nd lowest minimum on record.

Proj27.thumb.jpg.304d61ffb6a38cbb189efa69d909f24e.jpg

Here's a slow animation from the last few days, highlighting the continued push north of the ice edge facing the Kara and Laptev Seas

SlowChange23_27.thumb.gif.76cd598f667e6c94b4f36c141c121707.gif

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