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It's going to be interesting to see how social media coverage responds as sea ice extent losses slow for a time, while area losses (most likely...) stay on the high side.

Typical 2010s type response to the coming week of weather would be a big area loss in contrast to small extent loss, followed by extent dropping more steeply again as the sea ice dispersed into sun-warmed waters melts out.

Sometimes, extent losses lurch about a bit during the dispersal stage, if that motion causes large enough holes to manifest within the main ice pack.

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The anomaly continues to grow, NSIDC extent now 570k below the next lowest year, and below the minima of 1979, 80, 81, 82, 83, 86, 86, 87, 88, 89, 92, 94, 96, 97 and 2001. We're 1 million km^2 below

Your more than welcomed to post on this thread but even if the UK does not always have the heat, sadly elsewhere across the globe most certainly does.  MIA - From what I gathered, you thought the

Using previous 20 years melt rates from August 26th, all produce the 2nd lowest minimum on record. Here's a slow animation from the last few days, highlighting the continued push north of t

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8 minutes ago, Singularity said:

It's going to be interesting to see how social media coverage responds as sea ice extent losses slow for a time, while area losses (most likely...) stay on the high side.

Typical 2010s type response to the coming week of weather would be a big area loss in contrast to small extent loss, followed by extent dropping more steeply again as the sea ice dispersed into sun-warmed waters melts out.

Sometimes, extent losses lurch about a bit during the dispersal stage, if that motion causes large enough holes to manifest within the main ice pack.

Yep, it will be interesting to see how the Beaufort sea deals with the relatively small storm next week too. Concentration there has been dropping substantially.

 

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On 25/07/2020 at 00:28, Geordiesnow said:

They are but it is kind of exciting just how low can we go or whether the Arctic can "recover" from it, however it's also not nice too see the affects of a warming world affecting the Arctic ice.

Exciting is certainly not the word I would use...

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15 hours ago, Relativistic said:

Exciting is certainly not the word I would use...

Why not? There is nothing we can do with the changing climate I'm afraid, the earth is warming up at polar regions far too fast and its impacting the ice. How the ice responds to the July compaction is interesting and bit exciting too see if it goes really low or not.

I do wish every year for a uneventful melt season but we certainly not got that this year.

One thing to note about the Beaufort deep low, it's going to stick around for at least 48 hours as a strong depression. Despite this, I'm still not expecting a negative impact in terms of extent lost. It be more what condition the ice is once the clouds clear. Difference between this and 2012 is whilst the icee is diffused in the Beaufort, it is a mixture of small andnlarge floes whilst where the GAC in 2012 was all thin first year ice which seperated the ice. I do feel some think deep low equals a big extent loss maker but it does not work out that way. 

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20 hours ago, Geordiesnow said:

Why not? There is nothing we can do with the changing climate I'm afraid, the earth is warming up at polar regions far too fast and its impacting the ice. How the ice responds to the July compaction is interesting and bit exciting too see if it goes really low or not.

The potential destruction of a large sector of our planet is not exciting. Is mass deforestation of the Amazon rainforest exciting? I'm certainly not excited to see how many trees we can cut down. The same goes for how much ice we can melt.

I'm watching this melt season with dread, and have everything crossed that we somehow avoid another 2012.

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57 minutes ago, Relativistic said:

The potential destruction of a large sector of our planet is not exciting. Is mass deforestation of the Amazon rainforest exciting? I'm certainly not excited to see how many trees we can cut down. The same goes for how much ice we can melt.

I'm watching this melt season with dread, and have everything crossed that we somehow avoid another 2012.

Deforestation can be controlled by us humans but you can't stop the climate, not off realistically we gone past the tipping point of climate change. 

Im still not too convinced we will beat 2012 but we may not be too far from it though. The Atlantic side is warming up quite a bit and we got the deep low for the next 36 to 48 hours. In theory the weather conditions should be largely favourable for sea ice but because the Atlantic basin has been so warm recently, even a reverse dipole could be bad for the ice this year. 

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We don't allow weather guilt-tripping, so lets keep climate guild-tripping out of it, eh!?

Anywho, here a composite of the different worldview image sources today to highlight the storm, with the bottom section containing the CAA and Greenland filled in with yesterday.

ModisComposite.thumb.jpg.dccd1e83dfdf03e2a48c481c6378b00a.jpg

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Gone down to 969MB that low apparently, so perhaps one of the strongest storms in July on record? Be interesting once the clouds clear what it's left in its wake. 

Area is starting to drop so coupled with extent slowing down, the ice pack is getting less compact. No real surprises as the weather favours ice spread and the interior of the ice pack is not all that thick either. Coupled with the Beaufort getting more dispersed then area Wass bound to go down and it is lowest on record now also to boot. 

Looking at the outlook, in normal circumstances you would say the outlooks would favour sea ice but given whats happened so far this year, then who knows. Still continued to be interested on the Atlantic side of the basin, the warmth is making its presence felt there for sure. 

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36 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

Gone down to 969MB that low apparently, so perhaps one of the strongest storms in July on record? Be interesting once the clouds clear what it's left in its wake. 

Area is starting to drop so coupled with extent slowing down, the ice pack is getting less compact. No real surprises as the weather favours ice spread and the interior of the ice pack is not all that thick either. Coupled with the Beaufort getting more dispersed then area Wass bound to go down and it is lowest on record now also to boot. 

Looking at the outlook, in normal circumstances you would say the outlooks would favour sea ice but given whats happened so far this year, then who knows. Still continued to be interested on the Atlantic side of the basin, the warmth is making its presence felt there for sure. 

No large areas of extremely fragile ice, like in recent years, but the central pack in relatively thin and thinning under the southerly flow and record warmth on one side, and the storm on the other. The volume anomaly on the DMI page is growing now too, so it will be interesting to see how the next PIOMAS update compares. We have a weak, but relatively compact pack, surrounded by very warm waters.

FullSize_CICE_combine_thick_SM_EN_202007

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Just noting your DMI80N Tweet BFTV

Is it the WAA from the low in Beaufort or have we so much open water beyond 80N that the latent heat of fusion is no longer pegging temps there?

As you know that red line heading skyward over the 'pegged' temps of melt season was one of my " Time to worry!" signals!

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10 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

Just noting your DMI80N Tweet BFTV

Is it the WAA from the low in Beaufort or have we so much open water beyond 80N that the latent heat of fusion is no longer pegging temps there?

As you know that red line heading skyward over the 'pegged' temps of melt season was one of my " Time to worry!" signals!

I think it depends on where its measured from though. I think some of the DMI temperature is measured over the open water of the Barants sea which is above average in SSTS and above average in air temps. Coupled that with a southerly flow then this is the reason we are seeing the spike. Sadly its yet another sign of climate change as the set up is not unusual, its the temperatures. 

That said though, what's worse, having above average temps over the pole or having above average temperatures on the Pacific side of the basin because if that was the case, the DMI temp will be nearer the average mark. 

Interesting developments across the Beaufort sea today. Shows nicely on worldview once the clouds clear, the ice underneath may not be all that pretty. Going to be interesting how the diffused ice reacts from here. Might be similar to 2018 where parts of the Beaufort sea rapidly melted away? 

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Some of the 'thickness plots' show sub 1m ice across large areas of the 80N zone?

I know solar can penetrate 1m of ice but can temps 'seep through' from the leads in a broken, thin pack? (remember it's 'water' under that ice!)?

To me if that 80N plot persists in its 'spike' then I'll be even more convinced that this is an 'ice issue' & not a transient '2m temp' blip as a large WAA passes over the region?

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index.php?action=dlattach;topic=3017.0;a
 

Well then. Judging by the persistence and evolution of the low concentration, this is a pretty convincing portrayal of a huge negative impact on sea ice concentration from the storm over Beaufort/Chukchi.

Not only that but there seems to be far more loss than the dispersion can account for, suggesting a lot of melt out / wetting by rain/slosh from the ocean (a combination of those).

Thermal inertia of the waters should make losses in those seas hard to stall in August. That’s a lot of area and - in particular - extent seemingly on death row, so to speak.

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Yep, no doubt now that the storm did some serious damage. This should help to carry the melt momentum into August, especially with the -ve dipole now in full swing. I'd be shocked if the next PIOMAS update isn't lowest on record.

StormChangelow.thumb.gif.ce000a2dce0077ad02ff14ca02e15cca.gif

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5 hours ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Yep, no doubt now that the storm did some serious damage. This should help to carry the melt momentum into August, especially with the -ve dipole now in full swing. I'd be shocked if the next PIOMAS update isn't lowest on record.

StormChangelow.thumb.gif.ce000a2dce0077ad02ff14ca02e15cca.gif

I think the ice was on its way to be diffused even before the storm but no doubt it has left its mark. Whilst the ice is diffused, its not super thin so coupled with the slacker and somewhat cooler weather conditions, I be surprised if we see flash melting. 

I think the PIOMAS volume will be at least near record lows but because the thicker Beaufort ice is still there(albeit diffused) even if its record lows it probably won't be too far away from 2nd place. I suspect it probably be around 2nd or 3rd lowest for now though. 

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3 hours ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Concentration dropping quite a bit in just north of Greenland. This is somewhat concerning, given it's where some of the thickest ice should be.

CompAnimB.thumb.gif.83f0823406dd220fc30c0047a0c478cb.gif

It looks like its breaking away from the northern coast aswell, with open water there. I don't recall seeing that before?

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On 31/07/2020 at 15:13, Geordiesnow said:

I think the ice was on its way to be diffused even before the storm but no doubt it has left its mark. Whilst the ice is diffused, its not super thin so coupled with the slacker and somewhat cooler weather conditions, I be surprised if we see flash melting. 

I think the PIOMAS volume will be at least near record lows but because the thicker Beaufort ice is still there(albeit diffused) even if its record lows it probably won't be too far away from 2nd place. I suspect it probably be around 2nd or 3rd lowest for now though. 

The anomaly is down to negligible values, so not quite shocked, but a little surprised!

 

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The numbers suggests too me the CAB numbers must be pretty low if not record lows as the Beaufort sea is probably keeping the volume numbers up. 

Just how much Beaufort ice will survive between now and September? I

If quite a large amount survives this may be better news for next year's melt season as that ice will likely to transfer across towards the Chukchi and Siberian seas during the winter months but I suspect it is will most likely be an arm of ice that has compacted against the CAA that will survive and most of it will be gone by September.

Still lowest on record also, 2012 and 2019 do drop fast in the coming days but I thought we be a little closer to the pack by now, maybe the SSTS are doing the more damage now? 

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A few animations below. First is the north coast of Greenland over the last 7 days, with the ice seperating from the shoreline and dropping in concentration.

AnimationTo5thLow.thumb.gif.cc629ea33abf80ce5aae0e6d36cbd3f0.gif

The next is the Beaufort sea region. What seemed like highly resilient ice has been dropping in concentration rapidly since the storm.

BS_AnimLow.thumb.gif.843762250fa5fa50381b13fe89cb5300.gif

Higher-res versions are in the twitter page in my signature.

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1 hour ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Forecast for the next few days. The heat focused almost entirely on the remaining thick ice.

thkness202007.thumb.png.1ac7bcb8599905aa79a6e4a98533be24.png
ECMFull.thumb.gif.24a6afd3c6746b86fb117f1445e53a19.gif

Admittedly there might be some fohen affect from Greenland but 'heat'? Come on BFTV, let's not mistake higher than average upper air temperatures and mistake them for potential high temperatures at ice levels. We are hardly talking about plus 10C upper air temperatures with 30C Alaskan or Siberian heat hitting the basin here. 

The southerly flow through fram Stright interests me more, it's persistent and should be a good thing for the ice HOWEVER given the situation to the NE of Greenland and the Atlantic edge being so far north, is it starting to become a double edge sword type of situation where it could have a negative impact on the ice? 

In general the outlook looks fairly uneventful for the ice but given the diffused ice near the Chukchi and what happened so much far this year then never rule anything out. 

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