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Gray-Wolf

Arctic Melt Season 2020

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I thought I'd set this up esp. after looking at the Feb GISS temps!!!

 

Surely such a huge anom will have impacts on snow cover and so on to the Sea ice (loss of snow cover impacts temps up to 1,500km away?)

Will these anoms continue into Spring proper and so dry the warming land ahead of 'Wildfire Season'?

'Black soot' is another thing we do not need draped across the Sea ice!!!

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1 hour ago, Gray-Wolf said:

I thought I'd set this up esp. after looking at the Feb GISS temps!!!

 

Surely such a huge anom will have impacts on snow cover and so on to the Sea ice (loss of snow cover impacts temps up to 1,500km away?)

Will these anoms continue into Spring proper and so dry the warming land ahead of 'Wildfire Season'?

'Black soot' is another thing we do not need draped across the Sea ice!!!

How much does soot actually affect sea ice melting? The theory is there but in practice it seems to have limited affect from what I can see. Even the negative affect of limiting sunlight must be small I would say. 

It will be interesting how the lack of snow cover over Europe affects the Eurasian snow cover which along with the Alaskan snow cover is more important for the sea ice imo. 

I'm probably more concerned about how much ice we lost through the fram Stright, yes temperatures anaomolies at times has been more normal but this is always the catch 22 situation with the Arctic. The best winter conditions for the Arctic is surely a true Arctic high to be more dominant with pieces of PV circulating it so you get the low temperatures and less export. A high ridging in frrom the Atlantic or Pacific is not good for the ice as it brings huge amounts of warmth in. 

Looking at the ice at the moment, the interest has to be the ESS, the fast ice or the lack of it compared to other years could play a part as we head into summer, and it's already breaking up in parts and seperating from the ice pack(although refreezing behind it as its still well cold enough). 

Still as ever weather conditions during the summer will play their part on how much ice we do lose, I can't see an ice free pole or BOE happening this year, I think winter ice has to be less than it is now and for it to take longer to form during the Autumn months before that happens. 

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According to JAXA we have gone from 10th lowest right to 4th lowest on record all ready with a huge century drop all ready in the melting season. Will we go on a similar path to 2019 in terms of the extent line in the next few days and be amongst the lowest on record or will we remain within the pack? Weather patterns still continue tto suggest alot of fram export and the ice does not look too great across the Laptev with signs of thin ice in a large amount of areas and give it a month or two, I'm sure we will see true open water appearing. 

Also keep an eye on the Siberian coastline, strong southerly winds are forecast after day 3 and this coulld result in ice being moved away from the coastline there. 

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Thundery Wintry Showers fantastic April fools joke(it fooled me admittedly) in the other thread about a much higher minimum of sea ice because of the COVID-19 situation which is resulting in air pollution being much less, I just want to hear peoples opinions whether less pollution will lead to potentially less heat entering the Arctic or will it lead to an opposite affect or it will have no influence at all? 

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21 hours ago, Geordiesnow said:

Thundery Wintry Showers fantastic April fools joke(it fooled me admittedly) in the other thread about a much higher minimum of sea ice because of the COVID-19 situation which is resulting in air pollution being much less, I just want to hear peoples opinions whether less pollution will lead to potentially less heat entering the Arctic or will it lead to an opposite affect or it will have no influence at all? 

I think we will get to see our own '9/11' impact from the drop off in air travel before we even look at the impacts industrial Nations locking down production will have in 'Global Dimming'? Remember .back in the mid noughties NASA put the impacts of 'Global Dimming' as halving the temp rises we were due from the GHG forcing..... that would be quite a 'bump' to see on our temps?

Sadly the USA have dropped all EPA 'measuring' of industrial pollution and are allowing 'in house' measuring of dangerous outputs to also lapse....... I expect many communities there to relive the blight of heavy industry/oil production we were accustomed to in the 70's with river pollution wiping out fish numbers and ocean contamination from rigs no longer 'dealt with'......

Back to the Arctic, low solar and low pollution warns me of high losses and a permafrost on fire (as we saw in 2012?)

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Well we shall see if low pollution is actually more harmful than not in the coming months but it seems no matter what we do, it's too late to save the planet from the constant warming trends. 

Even if low pollution does help with any cool down, I think it could be irrelevant this year the ice in the ESS looks ****, it really does, its just lots of ice cubes floating around with very little fast ice(probaably the least fast ice ever?) for any sort of protection and resilience. There is no solid ice with leads in at all and too me if the weather patterns favour compaction then there could be alot of early open water here like it was in 2017. 

The Beaufort gyre as usual kicks into gear when the winds blows from the Alaskan landmass and the ice just moves away from the coastlines as a result, again showing just how thin the ice is here although it probably looks on worldview it may be more resilient than last year when we saw the extraordinary conditions where there was huge amounts of open water in place by the start of June. 

We see how this year goes, if I start seeing loads of holes appearing during the ice pack in June then alarm bells should ring, 2019s ice pack actually was quite compact, the warmth of June which set up rapid melt in July over the ESS is probably what caused the ice to go so low in the end. I dread to think what a repeat this year will do. 

Still all the good ice is around the Barants sea so at least we may not see much Atlantification during the melt season unless we get constant southerlies. 

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