Arctic Melt Season 2020

[BornFromTheVoid]

Recently set up a twitter account, so here's my first proper tweet!

 

[Geordiesnow]

Just extraordinary what we are seeing this July, absolutely smashing record low extent for this month. Should be headline news this, does not matter where we end up in September, we are just seeing more signs of a thinner ice pack. 

going to be interesting what this low pressure will do to the ice also but before that, a heat blast from Siberia still to come. 

[BornFromTheVoid]

After the latest update, we're now below the minima of 4 additional years, '82, '86, '92 and '96. 

All but 2 of the last 20 melt seasons would put the 2020 minimum at least 2nd lowest on record.

[Geordiesnow]

18 minutes ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

After the latest update, we're now below the minima of 4 additional years, '82, '86, '92 and '96. 

All but 2 of the last 20 melt seasons would put the 2020 minimum at least 2nd lowest on record.

Odds on fav of at least 2nd lowest, you just look at the ice pack and you can't see how it will be any higher than that, there will be no tongue of ice moving towards the ESS, no ice in the Laptev, Beaufort ice will melt some more between now and then and the ice edge should reach the 85 degree north line pretty widely. Infact this is the best year perhaps of seeing a true ice edge reaching the North Pole but the complex climate and geological reasons does mean the ice edge may struggle to reach the pole but we shall see. 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

God forbid the latest ECM. That would be the making of a disaster. 

[BornFromTheVoid]

11 hours ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

God forbid the latest ECM. That would be the making of a disaster. 

Luckily the ECM has back off that solution this morning. However, in the latest run, a reverse dipole pattern (low pressure on the N. American side, high pressure over the Russian side) will pull warm air in from the Atlantic and push the ice into the warm waters along the Eurasian coast. That would probably cause a temporary boost as the pack spreads out before bottom melt destroys more ice later in the month.

[Don]

I wonder how long until we get our first 'Ice free arctic' summer?!

[DAVID SNOW]

36 minutes ago, Don said:

I wonder how long until we get our first 'Ice free arctic' summer?!

100 years maybe a 1000, or never.

Who knows.

For us here in the UK, its another summer where 40c will not be reached.

[Geordiesnow]

3 hours ago, DAVID SNOW said:

100 years maybe a 1000, or never.

Who knows.

For us here in the UK, its another summer where 40c will not be reached.

What's that got to do with anything? Never mind heat records on this morning and just look at things globally and how the Siberian warmth during winter and June coupled with a persistent area of high pressure has totally destroyed the Siberian arctic ice cover. It was not helped it was thin to start off with but even so, its just extraordinary. 

As for first ice free summer, it won't be this summer but the ice edge reaching the North pole? Would not rule that one out! 

[Midlands Ice Age]

7 hours ago, Geordiesnow said:

What's that got to do with anything? Never mind heat records on this morning and just look at things globally and how the Siberian warmth during winter and June coupled with a persistent area of high pressure has totally destroyed the Siberian arctic ice cover. It was not helped it was thin to start off with but even so, its just extraordinary. 

As for first ice free summer, it won't be this summer but the ice edge reaching the North pole? Would not rule that one out! 

 

A rare summertime post from me..

I was asked by a member here, a couple of years ago, when I felt the first ice free summer would be.

I replied about 60 years.

I am still of the same opinion. although the last 10 years have shown us something about the extreme weather conditions which can affect the long discussed date.

To wit - firstly this year with an extreme high pressure anomaly during the 'key' high insolation period, and secondly  the GAC , which destroyed large portions of the ice at a key period,  when the ice was already mobile. (August from memory).

So perhaps a combination of the two atmospheric conditions could be lethal for the ice?

Also the recent last few years have indicated (to me) that the best Arctic ice preserving conditions during the summer are those when flat areas of low pressure dominate the Arctic scene.

 

I again intend monitoring the growth of the ice pack again this autumn, but I must admit that I am finding the current situation somewhat disturbing.

Whilst on the subject of varying atmospheric conditions...

I have also been observing the conditions which appeared to be best for growth of the ice in winter..

Last winter with a continual low pressure pattern over the Arctic and high pressure over the Aleutians and Alaska, appeared to be quite reasonable (although we did not have an all encompassing raging vortex as the Atlantic lows  failed to move into the other extreme of the North Atlantic); and also the Beast from the East of 2 years ago which came as a result of a  Russian/Arctic high pressure which resulted in a sudden increase in the volume of ice,  late in February and March. 

So,  just my ideas of what my also influence any discussions on dates. Anyone disagree or care to add anything different? 

MIA

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

PIOMAS has updated and, rather surprisingly, volume remains 4th lowest. However, the difference in the bottom 5 is rather small, and we've wiped out the majority of the excess volume since early June, thanks to record breaking rate of melt.

 

[DAVID SNOW]

17 hours ago, Geordiesnow said:

What's that got to do with anything? Never mind heat records on this morning and just look at things globally and how the Siberian warmth during winter and June coupled with a persistent area of high pressure has totally destroyed the Siberian arctic ice cover. It was not helped it was thin to start off with but even so, its just extraordinary. 

As for first ice free summer, it won't be this summer but the ice edge reaching the North pole? Would not rule that one out! 

I should not have posted in this thread, was an error of judgement.

[Geordiesnow]

7 hours ago, DAVID SNOW said:

I should not have posted in this thread, was an error of judgement.

Your more than welcomed to post on this thread but even if the UK does not always have the heat, sadly elsewhere across the globe most certainly does. 

MIA - From what I gathered, you thought the last winter was good for the sea ice? I say it was not and the reason being is a Positive AO tends to lead to lower summer extents. It also left(and this past winter has been a great example of this) the Siberian ice quite weak because the ice keeps getting pulled away from landmasses and the fast ice leaving thinner ice behind. The lack of fast ice in the east Siberian sea was also noticeable and this pattern I have no doubt has played a factor why we are so low but not as big of a factor as record breaking snow melt in Siberia and the Siberian heat in June. The anticyclone that has been so persistent is a big cause of the record breaking Laptev melt so coupled with what was likely to be a rapid melt in the ESS is leaving extent well out infront. 

The only hope for the ice is the anticyclone has seemingly meant the ice in the CAB is not diffused(unlike 2016 and 2012) and could be more resilient to melt but the SSTS are very warm in the Laptev and to a lesser extent the Barants so that could override any compactness which I think what happened last year. 

The Beaufort is holding on but starting to get more diffused, it's a race now just how much ice can survive between now and September. The weather gods is doing all it can to help that part of the basin! 

[Gray-Wolf]

So we're pulling out a lead on 2012 that will account for the losses that the GAC had in Aug of 2012.

If by Aug 2020 has that million lower than 2012 then I think I'd put my money on 2020 taking a new record low at refreeze?

But then what if Aug 2020 has its own suite of GAC's to finish the melt season with?

There is plenty of open water heating in the ESS for any low to throw ice at and that would certainly deal with a lot of ice even before we think of the potential for losses through Fram?

As things stand we edge toward bottom melt season at a record low level of ice and stand to find out just how much of our 'older ice' is really 'older ice' and just how much is 'easy to melt' FY ice welded on to the bottom of a thin skim of older ice.........

Edited July 21, 2020 by Gray-Wolf

[Singularity]

   

As one unusually strong & warm high departs, another arrives on the scene, this time spanning from Kara Sea to Canadian Arctic Archipelago.

While warmth, moisture, brisk winds and to some extent clear conditions (less impactful so far north by this far through July) assault the Atlantic periphery on one side, it's a similar story on the other side of the high - but here, the motion aspect is more problematic: A net push toward the anomalously warm Asia-side seas from the Canadian side, where 1-5°C SSTs are widespread.

Meanwhile, the fragmented Beaufort-Chukchi ice gets a bit of a stir. Thankfully the lows don't look as strong as was once being predicted, but there could still be some appreciable dispersion and mixing of ice with ocean water.

Overall, I feel like this is not as harmful as the classic dipole pattern of high pressure on the Canadian side and low pressure on the Asian side would be, but it's still a poor outcome for the aftermath of the 'Great Arctic Anticyclone'.

 

That warm 5-day mean anomaly at 850 hPa just keeps on growing in the EPS 00z run. Ouch.

[BornFromTheVoid]

 

Latest simple projection has 7 of the last 20 melt seasons causing a record low, and the 10 year average melt gives a low of 3.53 million km2 (2nd lowest minimum). Slowest melt (2001) gives a low of 4.39 million km2 (7th lowest minimum).

[Geordiesnow]

I think one thing we can learn from this melt season, let's hope we don't have a positive AO as strong as last winter was. The Siberian ice really needs to thicken up to protect the basin from future heatwaves. 

I disagree a little with Grey Wolf assumption more open water increases the chances of a GAC, I think its more down to contrasting airmasses hence initially we had those ECM runs showing a deep low as the airmasses helped to rapidly deepen a low, clearly now the set up was not quite right for this to happen(for now) but deep lows should be a very rare event in anycase. 

Hopefully for the sake of the ice, we can have a spell of cooler slacker conditions then after mid August a true Arctic high(not a warm ridge) can form leading to a drop off in temperatures in the CAB at night. 

Onn the subject of refreeze, I do feel again refreeze could break some records for the wrong reasons, going to be an all mighty struggle to freeze the Laptev sea up I reckon. 

[Midlands Ice Age]

On 20/07/2020 at 03:10, Geordiesnow said:

Your more than welcomed to post on this thread but even if the UK does not always have the heat, sadly elsewhere across the globe most certainly does. 

MIA - From what I gathered, you thought the last winter was good for the sea ice? I say it was not and the reason being is a Positive AO tends to lead to lower summer extents. It also left(and this past winter has been a great example of this) the Siberian ice quite weak because the ice keeps getting pulled away from landmasses and the fast ice leaving thinner ice behind. The lack of fast ice in the east Siberian sea was also noticeable and this pattern I have no doubt has played a factor why we are so low but not as big of a factor as record breaking snow melt in Siberia and the Siberian heat in June. The anticyclone that has been so persistent is a big cause of the record breaking Laptev melt so coupled with what was likely to be a rapid melt in the ESS is leaving extent well out infront. 

The only hope for the ice is the anticyclone has seemingly meant the ice in the CAB is not diffused(unlike 2016 and 2012) and could be more resilient to melt but the SSTS are very warm in the Laptev and to a lesser extent the Barants so that could override any compactness which I think what happened last year. 

The Beaufort is holding on but starting to get more diffused, it's a race now just how much ice can survive between now and September. The weather gods is doing all it can to help that part of the basin! 

I do agree that last year was not good for the ice overall..

My point was that early on in the winter (Dec/Jan time scale) we had a series of 'slack' lows  strung out across the whole of the Russian coastline. This seemed to encourage the ice to form in for example the Barents Sea  so that it became the highest for 10 years  - at least in this area.  During March and April the atmospheric conditions changed and this imported the warmer air along the Russian coastline, with the result that  as you point out, the ESS and other seas in the area ended up with  hardly anything.

My post was intended  not to discuss this years sea ice, (which I had already agreed is not good), but was my observations as to what atmospheric conditions would be good for the ice and what is very clearly bad, in terms of the discussion going on at the time on the blue ocean..

I am sorry if I misled you.

MIA

   

Edited July 22, 2020 by Midlands Ice Age

[Geordiesnow]

You havant misled me or anyone, it's an opinion and your obviously most entitled to it. 

In terms of what is good or bad weather for the sea ice, who really knows anymore. In winter if you can get a strong Arctic basin high to dominate, you might get higher temperatures but you get less fram export and the ice is more likely to be compacted against the Siberian shoreline. I knew since spring the ESS ice was vulnable and my fears only grew when open water was appearing more and more. I did not quite anticipate the Laptev sea would join the party just as bad but it has and its why extent is so low. 

Got to remember though, low pressure can also cause damage to the ice but you don't always see that in the extent lines so I still think high pressure is not always as bad as it seems but mayve we just had too much of it? In sure this high influenced the basin weather for almost 3 weeks! 

[BornFromTheVoid]

The anomaly continues to grow, NSIDC extent now 570k below the next lowest year, and below the minima of 1979, 80, 81, 82, 83, 86, 86, 87, 88, 89, 92, 94, 96, 97 and 2001.
We're 1 million km^2 below the 2010s average, 1.92 million below 00s, 2.7 million below 90s and 3.2 million (>land area of India) below the 80s average.
8 of the last 20 melt seasons will produce a minimum below 2012, and the 10 year average gets us down to 3.52 million km2. Slowest melt, 2001, will produce the 6th lowest minimum, at 4.347 million km2.

However, the high pressure is now fading, so with the combination of dispersion, cooler conditions and more cloud cover, I'd expect the rate of reduction to slow at least temporarily. That may set us up for enhanced melt in August though, as the ice is dispersed into the warmer SSTs.

 

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

The NSIDC record extent anomaly is now out to 655k and over a million km2 below the average of the last 10 years. 9 of the 20 previous melt seasons projected from now will beat the 2012 low.

[Don]

On 23/07/2020 at 14:52, BornFromTheVoid said:

The NSIDC record extent anomaly is now out to 655k and over a million km2 below the average of the last 10 years. 9 of the 20 previous melt seasons projected from now will beat the 2012 low.

Those charts do look shall we say rather alarming.......

Edited July 24, 2020 by Don

[Geordiesnow]

9 hours ago, Don said:

Those charts do look shall we say rather alarming.......

They are but it is kind of exciting just how low can we go or whether the Arctic can "recover" from it, however it's also not nice too see the affects of a warming world affecting the Arctic ice. 

Sadly I'm afraid Autumn is more than likely will see more records being broken with a slow refreeze given how quick the retreat has been and how warm the SSTS are. Might take until the start of December before the Laptev refreezes for example. 

[Singularity]

Tweeted some thoughts on the newly established pattern and the deep low (which is now firmly back in the model runs after a wobble by the 12z runs of yesterday).

The positioning looks very troubling. I'm not sure there are much worse locations for it to be at this point in the currently melting season, with the sea ice distribution as it is. 

Usually, one right over the CAB would be more dangerous, but I think such would have benefited the Beaufort Sea enough to compensate for CAB losses, at least with respect to this melting season.

As it is, the low looks to be well positioned to assault the most fragmented ice in the Beaufort Sea, where there's reportedly considerable sub-surface warmth within about 100 m depth that could mix up to the surface if the winds are strong enough and the storm lasts 2-3 days. Remains to be seen if it does - models still vary on that. With any luck, it'll clear off within 2 days.

Regardless of mixing up from depth, wind-driven dispersion and some mechanical breaking up of floes are likely to occur. Whatever goes CAB way will be faced with the warm air advection for at least a day or two (the relatively lucky outcome), while that which heads toward Asia's much-warmed peripheral seas... well, need I say more?

 

Longer-term, usual uncertainties of course, but sadly I find it hard to anticipate a complete avoidance of deep storm activity - there's just so much additional energy available compared to most years, including the potential energy from steep temperature gradients, which will inevitably be an increasing factor as we go through August and sunlight is less able to stop the air over sea ice from becoming subzero whenever winds are light.

We really need a lucky escape on that one!

[BornFromTheVoid]

With little change in the last 2 days, the NSIDC extent is now lowest on record by 481,000km2, and less than 1 million km2 below the 2010s average again.

The simple projection only produces a new September low for 6 of the last 20 years. The 10 year average melt will reach a low of 3.6 million km2, or 2nd lowest on record.