Coronavirus and the weather

[Mike Poole]

You have to laugh at the British weather sometimes, I think if I recall correctly that's all 4 of the spring bank holidays being perfect sunny weather while we are all under lockdown!  

[damianslaw]

6 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

You have to laugh at the British weather sometimes, I think if I recall correctly that's all 4 of the spring bank holidays being perfect sunny weather while we are all under lockdown!  

Yes, what's the betting the August Bank Holiday will be the odd one out, when the lockdown has been lifted.

 

[Sunny76]

On 25/05/2020 at 21:01, damianslaw said:

Yes, what's the betting the August Bank Holiday will be the odd one out, when the lockdown has been lifted.

 

If it’s lifted by then.

None of the companies that work in my building will be coming back until September or even October as the earliest date.

A second wave is more than likely.

[ribster]

8 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

If it’s lifted by then.

None of the companies that work in my building will be coming back until September or even October as the earliest date.

A second wave is more than likely.

Indeed, especially given the way some are behaving...

[al78]

On 25/05/2020 at 21:01, damianslaw said:

Yes, what's the betting the August Bank Holiday will be the odd one out, when the lockdown has been lifted.

 

Classic UK p**s-take weather. Yes the August bank holiday will be awful, because I have booked a scrambling course in Snowdonia over that weekend, and given I picked the worst two week period last year to go backpacking in Scotland, the late 90's/2000's trend of crap weather whenever I want to hike up a UK mountain may have returned.

[damianslaw]

Lockdown commenced 23 March bang on cue a lengthy spell of dry sunny warm weather prevailed with a few blips, lockdown now easing, and low and behold the models are showing the poorest conditions we've had since they began - cool, distinctly so and cloudy with some rain for the foreseeable..

Do the government know something we don't? Uncanny timing, and to have recorded one of the driest and the sunniest spring on record is quite remarkable given the state of things. It could have been so so much worse.

[Mike Poole]

Just linking this here as it is relevant:

5 hours ago, Blessed Weather said:

Apologies if already posted, but some new American research being reported has put some figures on the substantial benefit that this lovely weather is providing in helping control CV19. Some extracts:

• The hottest week of the year could lower coronavirus transmission rates, with a study showing that strong British summer sunlight causes the virus to decay to almost nothing in just 30 minutes.
• During peak sunshine in London – which occurs during the summer solstice around June 21 – just 30 minutes of sunlight is enough to reduce the infectivity of coronavirus by 90 per cent. 
• It means that even if someone was infected and coughed or sneezed onto an outdoor surface, the virus would be largely harmless within half an hour with just a tiny viral load remaining.
• The effect of sunlight on the virus is far greater at this time of year. During the autumn equinox, on September 22, it would take one hour and 17 minutes to render the virus largely harmless in the capital, and nearly three hours at the spring equinox (March 20). At the winter solstice, on December 21, the virus could survive for more than five hours in the weak sunlight, although indoors it is likely to last for days. 
• A new study from the US National Biodefense Analysis and Countermeasures Center also found that coronavirus floating in the air decays by 90 per cent in just six minutes of summer sunshine and 19 minutes of winter sunlight.

Source: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/06/22/heatwave-could-lower-coronavirus-transmission-rates-study-shows/

 

[mb018538]

Hmm I’ve been sceptical about this. It’s been baking hot in India for months, with even higher UV than here. Same in Iran. Has that tempered the spread there? Nope.

[Relativistic]

2 hours ago, mb018538 said:

Hmm I’ve been sceptical about this. It’s been baking hot in India for months, with even higher UV than here. Same in Iran. Has that tempered the spread there? Nope.

In the context of India's enormous population and, in many parts, its exceptionally dense population, I'm not sure it's been hit quite as hard as we might expect? And perhaps sunshine has played a rôle in that?

[mb018538]

3 minutes ago, Relativistic said:

In the context of India's enormous population and, in many parts, its exceptionally dense population, I'm not sure it's been hit quite as hard as we might expect? And perhaps sunshine has played a rôle in that?

It hasn’t (yet) - but they locked down early with hardly any cases which held the flood back, and now they’ve eased off restrictions cases are growing exponentially. Record numbers this week growing week on week. Could be an impending disaster.

 

up

[Relativistic]

9 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

It hasn’t (yet) - but they locked down early with hardly any cases which held the flood back, and now they’ve eased off restrictions cases are growing exponentially. Record numbers this week growing week on week. Could be an impending disaster.

 

up

Looks sub-exponential to me, and that's with a rapidly-increasing number of daily tests.

Let's see how things pan out.

[Mike Poole]

A couple of sources recently (Daily Telegraph was one) suggested optimal temperature for coronavirus is 4C.  So we definitely don’t want the typical UK mild winter this year, lets have the EQBO and  solar minimum rock and keep it at -4C.  

And the SSTs aren’t looking that bad now either, suggestions of a tripole in the Atlantic now:

My view is we really don’t want an average mild winter with this virus about, but maybe we might be lucky...we will see...

Edited July 11, 2020 by Mike Poole

[Mike Poole]

Well now we are going to find out how coronavirus is affected by the weather, as the season changes to autumn in the UK.  

With the economy partially opened up now, how will things go?

The optimal temperature for the virus outside the body has been reported to be 4C - so let us hope we don’t get one of those cold rain winters!  A post by @SnowBear in the coronavirus thread suggests it prefers humidity from 40-60%.  I think the worst thing for us is a standard mild wet winter.

My view is that a harsh cold winter would work to prevent any serious rises in cases, partly by going against the above, but also less frequent mixing of people, naturally, not from some government dictat.  

Will we get one?  Watch forecasts first for November, I think an early freeze is possible this winter, there are things in favour (solar minimum, likely -IOD, weak La Niña, SSTs( N Atlantic vaguely supportive at times over the summer, not always), but as always nowadays possible conflicting factors, EQBO faltering for example.  We will see...

As schools go back, how much will the weather affect how this disease spreads?  We don’t know, we watch and wait....

Edited August 28, 2020 by Mike Poole

[I remember Atlantic 252]

On 25/05/2020 at 21:01, damianslaw said:

Yes, what's the betting the August Bank Holiday will be the odd one out, when the lockdown has been lifted.

 

Aye, not as good/warm as April or May, but looks dry away from far NW

[DAVID SNOW]

14 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Well now we are going to find out how coronavirus is affected by the weather, as the season changes to autumn in the UK.  

With the economy partially opened up now, how will things go?

The optimal temperature for the virus outside the body has been reported to be 4C - so let us hope we don’t get one of those cold rain winters!  A post by @SnowBear in the coronavirus thread suggests it prefers humidity from 40-60%.  I think the worst thing for us is a standard mild wet winter.

My view is that a harsh cold winter would work to prevent any serious rises in cases, partly by going against the above, but also less frequent mixing of people, naturally, not from some government dictat.  

Will we get one?  Watch forecasts first for November, I think an early freeze is possible this winter, there are things in favour (solar minimum, likely -IOD, weak La Niña, SSTs( N Atlantic vaguely supportive at times over the summer, not always), but as always nowadays possible conflicting factors, EQBO faltering for example.  We will see...

As schools go back, how much will the weather affect how this disease spreads?  We don’t know, we watch and wait....

Interesting thoughts Mike, a nice September with plenty of sun and keep those windows open at home, and way more important .. keep the windows open on public transport, I hope this message gets pushed hard soon.

Humidity I raised before SnowBear, ,the higher the humidity leads to heavier droplets, so they fall out of the air more quickly, think this has been known for years?

 

Lets see where low solar combined with week la nina  takes us.

[damianslaw]

43 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Interesting thoughts Mike, a nice September with plenty of sun and keep those windows open at home, and way more important .. keep the windows open on public transport, I hope this message gets pushed hard soon.

Humidity I raised before SnowBear, ,the higher the humidity leads to heavier droplets, so they fall out of the air more quickly, think this has been known for years?

 

Lets see where low solar combined with week la nina  takes us.

Could do with lots of high pressure to the north and east introducing very dry air then, and also very cold air.