Coronavirus and the weather

[Gael_Force]

Quote

The ability of SARS-CoV-2 to effectively spread globally, including in warm and humid climates, suggests that seasonality cannot be considered a key modulating factor of SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility. While warmer weather may slightly reduce transmission of SARS-CoV-2, there is no evidence to suggest that warmer conditions in northern hemisphere summer months will reduce the effectiveness of SARS-CoV-2 transmission to an extent that few additional interventions are needed to curb its spread. Further studies on the impact of climate variability, air pollution and other extrinsic factors on COVID-19 transmission will need to consider connectivity from locations with a high incidence, population susceptibility and surveillance for respiratory infections. For the time being, policy makers must focus on contact reducing interventions and any COVID-19 risk predictions based on climate information alone should be interpreted with caution.

Effective transmission across the globe: the role of climate in COVID-19 mitigation strategies | CMMID Repository

CMMID.GITHUB.IO

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We discussed the current evidence on the role of climate on COVID-19 transmission.

 

[Midlands Ice Age]

4 hours ago, Gael_Force said:

Effective transmission across the globe: the role of climate in COVID-19 mitigation strategies | CMMID Repository

CMMID.GITHUB.IO

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We discussed the current evidence on the role of climate on COVID-19 transmission.

 

Yep...GF   - it looks as if any hope the seasons would help much are rapidly being extinguished.

I still  am puzzled why the Chinese seemed to 'trap' the virus into Wuhan, and the province.

Judging by the number of people returning to the city shown on the news today either they were very lucky or something else we are not factoring in has happened over there.

MIA

[ciel]

13 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Yep...GF   - it looks as if any hope the seasons would help much are rapidly being extinguished.

I still  am puzzled why the Chinese seemed to 'trap' the virus into Wuhan, and the province.

Judging by the number of people returning to the city shown on the news today either they were very lucky or something else we are not factoring in has happened over there.

MIA

Why are you posting on on this subsidiary thread?

Do you think therefore they  acquire more 'gravitas'

Your views might be more helpful to the discussions on the main threads.

[The PIT]

20 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Yep...GF   - it looks as if any hope the seasons would help much are rapidly being extinguished.

I still  am puzzled why the Chinese seemed to 'trap' the virus into Wuhan, and the province.

Judging by the number of people returning to the city shown on the news today either they were very lucky or something else we are not factoring in has happened over there.

MIA

Well I think the threat of disappearing if you don't what Government says may have helped a bit. Plus do you trust their figures

 

[Midlands Ice Age]

As promised above the first early report from New York has been released -

699 patients involved in a surgery attached to entrance to a hospital. (Sounds like a super triage system).

After an  initial evaluation on URT and LRT, the doctor in charge (remotely?) decided whether the patients were sufficiently ill to warrant entering the trial. This was an administration of (for 5 days) 2 X 200mg of hydrochloroquinone, 1 X  200Mg 0f Zinc Phosphate, and an antibiotic (ZPAC) at 500Mg for day 1 and then 250Mg for the remaining 4 days.

After the 5 days, 1 patient had to be sent onwards to IC, 3 were continued on the treatment on the contained ward and  the rest were released back home.  No deaths were reported, after 14 days.

A paper has been issued, but the official report is still being prepared.   

Now it was not accompanied by a blind trial, and it was strictly administered on a 'need of use' basis.

The suggestion was that it reduced  the hospital stay by a half compared to a similar sample of patients reported from Wuhan, and if administered early enough it appeared to be capable of avoiding many deaths.

The cost of the treatment was about 20 dollars per person.

On this basis the FDA in the US yesterday authorised its use for the treatment of Corvid-19.

The French and Belgium trials are progressing similarly, and will soon be approved officially.

 

Now,  I know there are a lot of unanswered questions about the 'trial', but the claims are that there were a reasonable mixture of the sexes, and the age ranges gave at least 33% in the over 60 range.  He is at  pains to state it is not a cure, but can halve  the average stay in hospital - a major benefit for over-run staff.

So the question is why has the UK stopped g.p,'s and doctors  from administering the drugs to clearly Covid-19 probable patients, and why when the patient has been accepted for hospital treatment and assessed do they not automatically prescribe the drugs?

Any side effects are well known and they  can  predict the patients that are at risk - they (or chemists) have always done this when prescribing for Malaria. 

So why do the  Medical chiefs in this country not take the quickest and least costly way of reducing the size of the effect and impact upon our hospitals?

With little risk to life and at a minute cost, surely it is worth at least offering it to the patients?.

MIA

 

Edited March 31, 2020 by Midlands Ice Age

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Mike Poole]

The first real test of the social distancing policy will be on Sunday.  There are two weather events that for me mark the changing of the seasons, the first frost in autumn, and the first time you really feel the sun on your face in spring.  Sunday will be the latter this year in the south, GFS 12z T51;

Temps probably a bit higher too, as GFS usually undercooks.  Everyone, please stay home, protect our NHS, and save lives.

[Wilxy]

1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

The first real test of the social distancing policy will be on Sunday.  There are two weather events that for me mark the changing of the seasons, the first frost in autumn, and the first time you really feel the sun on your face in spring.  Sunday will be the latter this year in the south, GFS 12z T51;

Temps probably a bit higher too, as GFS usually undercooks.  Everyone, please stay home, protect our NHS, and save lives.

Well out on my daily walk today I can already feel the heat of the sun on my face!

[kold weather]

11 hours ago, TomW said:

Well out on my daily walk today I can already feel the heat of the sun on my face!

I noticed last Sunday whilst in the garden that when sheltered out of the wind the sun was feeling quite warm already. I suspect this weekend will legitimately feel quite warm in some places.

[damianslaw]

5 hours ago, kold weather said:

I noticed last Sunday whilst in the garden that when sheltered out of the wind the sun was feeling quite warm already. I suspect this weekend will legitimately feel quite warm in some places.

Sun has the same strength it has now as early September.. by Easter it will be on a par nearly with late August.. there is a marked change in the feel of everything from now on until about mid May, all the spring growth, increasing warmth from the sun, less rain (usually), indeed can often be the driest period of the whole year (quite usually is for NW parts).

After months of being indoors with limited light, I suspect people will become very frustrated and quite rightly that they can't make the most of the weather. What's the betting when the restrictions are lifted, the heavens open again...

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Mike Poole]

3 hours ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

 

Makes me smile when I think of how many posters ridicule this every year when it happens on Christmas Day, Boxing Day!

[York-snow]

 

[Snowyowl9]

Cold and dull weekened this week perfect for viruses unlike last week it was very warm a big killer of viruses.

[weatherguy]

5 hours ago, Snowyowl9 said:

Cold and dull weekened this week perfect for viruses unlike last week it was very warm a big killer of viruses.

There is very little evidence to suggest that this virus is susceptible to warm weather, despite the tentative early suggestions.  There are simply too many variables at play determining the rate of observed infection spread (international travel [particularly in the early seeding stages], extent of social distancing measures, cultural factors such as face mask usage, population density, extent and efficacy of testing to name but a few).  I feel it is reasonable to believe warmer weather does have an impact on reducing the rates of infection, but this thing is so infectious by way of it being novel in nature, that this is a relatively minor factor.  On the contrary, warmer weather may increase the temptation for those thinking of flouting social distancing advice, therefore encouraging the spread further.

That being said, the current enforced lockdown is working as it has stopped the exponential expansion of cases here.  In my opinion, this should continue until the number of active cases falls down to a level at which we have about 4 weeks of leeway in terms of correcting any easing of social distancing measures (and assuming that any easing of lockdown measures MAY trigger a renewal of the 3-4 day doubling times).  For example, in simple terms, if we were to ease lockdown measures today, it would not be known what impact this would have on the rates of infection for about 3 weeks (roughly 2 weeks for the first "new" cases to show up, a further week to get data about the general direction of infectivity).  If the spread is shown to be exponentially rising again and a renewed lockdown is required, this would not have any effect for a further 1-2 weeks.  Leave the cases too high, and it becomes fairly obvious that we COULD be overwhelmed.  It is crucial that we are cautious and have the breathing room to make gradual changes as necessary, lest we end up with an outbreak which would effectively destroy the NHS' care capacity.  I am, however, not optimistic that the government will take this approach, owing to the economic damage that is being sustained.  

[Snowyowl9]

Well luckily I can go out into sun anytime as 300 acres on a farm is great for your health.

Vitimin D comes from the sun.

Evidence that Vitamin D Supplementation Could Reduce Risk of Influenza and COVID-19 Infections and Deaths. - PubMed - NCBI

WWW.NCBI.NLM.NIH.GOV

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Nutrients. 2020 Apr 2;12(4). pii: E988. doi: 10.3390/nu12040988. Review

 

Edited April 19, 2020 by Snowyowl9

[The PIT]

As it the spread seems to be worldwide its pretty clear warmth won't kill this virus. 40C in Pakistan and it's spreading there.

[damianslaw]

Whilst the virus quite rightly is dominating the weather headlines and whole news episodes at present, I'm surprised there doesn't seem to be any world weather events to talk about. Mind there was brief mention of tornados in USA the other day. I wonder if there was a major world event such as an earthquake would it make the news?

One thing that we can't seem to mention at the moment, is the glorious weather - in any other time the weather headlines would be awash with driest April ever, summer weather etc.

Locally private water supplies are running dry here, had we had the weather of the last 6 weeks say in the height of summer, then drought heatwave conditions would have been dominating.

 

[Mike Poole]

Now that a possibly prolonged period of settled sunny weather is very much on the cards, it is worth revisiting what this means for us and the virus.  Circumstances have changed, we are now encouraged to go out, if socially distant.  The virus doesn't last long in UV light, and any breeze will whip it away quickly, so this seems sensible.  

Other countries that are hotter have had significant transmission of the virus, but that is likely to be indoors in air conditioned buildings, rather than outdoors, we have much less air-con.   It will be interesting to see whether the infection rate continues to fall as restrictions are slowly in the decent weather that is (possibly, if not probably) to come...

Edited May 18, 2020 by Mike Poole

[damianslaw]

50 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Now that a possibly prolonged period of settled sunny weather is very much on the cards, it is worth revisiting what this means for us and the virus.  Circumstances have changed, we are now encouraged to go out, if socially distant.  The virus doesn't last long in UV light, and any breeze will whip it away quickly, so this seems sensible.  

Other countries that are hotter have had significant transmission of the virus, but that is likely to be indoors in air conditioned buildings, rather than outdoors, we have much less air-con.   It will be interesting to see whether the infection rate continues to fall as restrictions are slowly in the decent weather that is (possibly, if not probably) to come...

Will be interesting to see what effect freezing weather has on the virus as well, can significant cold kill it? Unfortunately unlike the summer, in winter, the Government won't be able to encourage us to go outside, and I can see concerns about its spread in the winter, given people are inside.

[York-snow]

can this really be true? 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

I’ve got a question. We mention the weather and covid, but does anyone here believe that sunspot activity bears any correlation on pandemics? I was reading on a forum the other day that solar activity has played an influence in some of the past pandemics. The level of UV output is thought to play a part in how virology behaves, and the theory being that viral matter can thrive more with a lower output of UV (Less sunspots = Less volume of UV). Cosmic rays are also thought to play a part! 

Another interesting one, recessions seem to always happen for whatever reason during the approach to, or at solar minimums, followed by a stronger correlation of upward output of GDP going along with the uptick in solar activity. I saw some graphs on it last week!! Coincidence or not? 

Edited May 20, 2020 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

I’ve got a question. We mention the weather and covid, but does anyone here believe that sunspot activity bears any correlation on pandemics? I was reading on a forum the other day that solar activity has played an influence in some of the past pandemics. The level of UV output is thought to play a part in how virology behaves, and the theory being that viral matter can thrive more with a lower output of UV (Less sunspots = Less volume of UV). Cosmic rays are also thought to play a part! 

Another interesting one, recessions seem to always happen for whatever reason during the approach to, or at solar minimums, followed by a stronger correlation of upward output of GDP going along with the uptick in solar activity. I saw some graphs on it last week!! Coincidence or not? 

Off on a tangent, would be good to compare periods of recession with the solar cycle. Your right the last one occurred when we entered low solar cycle 2008, mid 90s was the last low solar cycle, we had climbed out of the early 90s recession then. The early 80s recession I think came at solar maximum?

Changes in government, political changes at the top have happened in 'cold periods', labour government collapsed as a result of the last recession, change to conservatives in 10 ( a cold year), 97 labour win coming on the back of a colder period 95-97, Margaret Thatcher resigning Nov 90, recession time, and a colder winter thereafter, 79 labour government winter of discontent, Conservatives won in May.

Might we see a cold spell later this year / winter - change of government as well, who knows once the jury is out on how they have handled the virus and what situation we might be in. 

[Mike Poole]

21 hours ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

I’ve got a question. We mention the weather and covid, but does anyone here believe that sunspot activity bears any correlation on pandemics? I was reading on a forum the other day that solar activity has played an influence in some of the past pandemics. The level of UV output is thought to play a part in how virology behaves, and the theory being that viral matter can thrive more with a lower output of UV (Less sunspots = Less volume of UV). Cosmic rays are also thought to play a part! 

Another interesting one, recessions seem to always happen for whatever reason during the approach to, or at solar minimums, followed by a stronger correlation of upward output of GDP going along with the uptick in solar activity. I saw some graphs on it last week!! Coincidence or not? 

Level of UV output does seem to affect COVID, higher levels kill it quickly.  But in this part of the world at the moment that is not being reduced by the solar minimum, it is massively increased because the current weather patterns here are for almost unprecedented  levels of sunshine in recent times, on a local level of course.  

The latter point, well correlation is not causation is it?