Coronavirus and the weather

[ciel]

13 minutes ago, Sceptical said:

Just a little FYI.

The World Health Organisation are not convinced C19 is a seasonal virus.

Yes,125 new cases registered in Malaysia

Malaysia registers 125 new Covid-19 cases, 95 related to tabligh gathering cluster | Malay Mail

WWW.MALAYMAIL.COM

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KUALA LUMPUR, March 16 — The Health Ministry has confirmed 125 new Covid-19 positive cases have been reported today, with 95 cases linked to...

 

[martycole]

Hi (Longtime lurker here),

Something that has been bugging me about why Italy has been getting it so bad. Apparently in Northern Italy a great many of the traditional leather making business sold their businesses to the chinese. Over time many (approx 100,000), and mainly from the Wuhan district are now working in these Italian factories, and of course many went home for the chinese new year celebrations. Does seem plausible?

[Mike Poole]

FYI this is the modelling study (and I know most of us love models) that the governments measures announced yesterday is based on.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

On reading it, I think it looks a comprehensive study, but a bit lacking in consideration of uncertainty.  

[Snowyowl9]

Its into russia now,how did that happen saw on RT earlier,they closed the borders before and there was none as far as I know.

[Midlands Ice Age]

I am bringing this note forward onto this thread as I think it is worthy of a general discussion in more detail.

You will understand why  when I have written my post in here later ( in a  more detailed scientific response) within a more detailed post.

Please bear with me as I have a lot of data to share and explain -

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Posted March 10 (edited)

Worth a note... not seen it  on here....

Liverpool Uni (centre for extreme tropical diseases) had a brief interview at the end of the BBC news last night.

It was stressing how quickly they could determine the structure of the virus  (minutes) and also it allowed them to see all bacteria present.

They were working on the virus,  and had found that the worst cases all had increased numbers of bacteria in their phlegm.

Now the question is did these bacteria appear as a result of their bodies not being to fight them off in the presence of the virus, and if so would it be useful to put them onto a course of antibacterial at the start  to give them an increased chance (length of time) in which to fight the virus off.

Interesting? The original assumption was that penicillin/antibiotic will not kill the virus, but maybe this would  explain why it is killing more elderly people  (as one assumes they may have accumulated more bacteria in their lungs during their lifetime).

Maybe a quick full course  of antibiotic could be suggested at the beginning  of the treatment for many elderly people?

MIA

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MIA

Edited March 18, 2020 by Midlands Ice Age

[kold weather]

Looking increasingly likely that although hot temperatures might slow the spread, it will not be enough to prevent transmission occuring. SE Asia's cases have seemingly mostly been spread via a religious festival (again!) but transmission has seemingly happened fairly readily at temperatures into the 30s.

I'm not sure whether once you get into the 40s it starts to have a larger impact, but in this country frankly that isn't going to be something that is going to happen. 

[Midlands Ice Age]

Re my note above (you will see where I am coming from) - a long note probably.

My personal situation is that  I am a retired Chemistry graduate (who studied Carbon (organic)  chemistry and some bioscience). I do have patents in polymer and plastics. Much to my shame these days! 

I am now mid 70's, and have had a major medical  history (4 different types of cancer) over the last 20 years - the most recent being a mild form of Leukaemia of my T-Cells. All my cancers are currently in remission and I have been accepted onto a trial involving 500 patients with a similar background. They are all healthy cancer remission stories!!!   (good news for you younger guys) 

The doctor rang Monday pm to tell me I had the start of the normal 'aged degradation' of the liver, and could I have a blood test straight awayt!!! He even said I could have it done at the surgery.

I felt I should tell him that I have had to put myself into a voluntary lockdown, so I would not be able to go to the surgery just yet.

He informed me I must self isolate for 14 days, as I was a very high risk patient. 

What I had to tell him was  that I had already been in contact with a guy, who after passing on some relevant papers to me told me that just 2 days before he had returned from....  Madrid;  mixing with Athletico Madrid supporters at  a football match (70,000 crowd)!!! As it was in a  'Senior living accommodation apartments - I was shocked!!!! No words can describe my feelings towards him!!!! There really are such people around!

….. 

Within 36 hours I started displaying a raised temperature!!

All the background.

Now from the post above (before this event happened), you will see that I am interested in the scientific background documents. papers on the virus. This was about the presence of bacterial infection in the lungs in people who had died.

So I  started searching - , and was amazed at the materials already coming out. (particularly from China).

Basically the papers claim that they have been using traditional 'Malaria' type drugs on  patients  with great success, when used in conjunction with antibiotics. (see above).  These drugs are Chloroquine and Hydroxyquinine.

They have bought up all supplies of the drug from Pakistan. The drugs are these days produced almost exclusively in the UK and India (Astra (UK) -  as 'Avloclor' as a combined drug with Paludrine (the other suggested active drug)).Though they are now out of patent,  Having been used widely for 50 years, they can now be made as generic anywhere.

This last month  (feb)  the  UK  banned the export of the drug!! 

The Chinese  thought (understandably) they had nothing to lose, as they were losing control of the situation.

Three papers  below, give the  positions, with regard to the status, and also show a lot of the original Chinese work, and  they refer to work done elsewhere in North Korea and China!! 

There are many more references on the web.                     So 

https://docs.google.com/document/d/e/2PACX-1vTi-g18ftNZUMRAj2SwRPodtscFio7bJ7GdNgbJAGbdfF67WuRJB3ZsidgpidB2eocFHAVjIL-7deJ7/pub?fbclid=IwAR3HXmAaRvsKQwtD4mT0W6NU4bTJvZnR6f3KLRcsWkXSOGn33dbdR1KyS0Q 

Now I understand that this has been called a 'hoax'.  But

Back to my situation -

My temp (each morning from day 1)  (normally I am 36.1), 36.5. 37.1, 37.8 (limit!). 38.3 (over 100degrees F), 38.5.

So 5 days in and well over the limits! My GP had already contacted me!

I decided I had nothing to lose - I had quinine (which displays the characteristics required), as in Tonic Water. although supposedly at very low toxicity.

I had been drinking Whisky and Ginger Ale   each evening as my medicinal, so I  (sacrilege for me!) swapped to Gin  and (lots of) T.  I had one in the morning (as a starter you understand).  I added some Lemon Juice, and some Ginger, (The Ginger drove out all the CO2!- fizzing everywhere)..  Within 6 hours I stated to feel better!!

My temperature had reduced to 37.1 by evening. This morning it is down to 36.1C.

So -

1) Had I got Corvid-19?  - It had lasted 5/6 days - so could just about have been normal flu. Though I understand that 'normal' flu sees raised temps for 2 - 3 days, due to our natural immunity, jabs, etc.)

2) If I had Corvid-19 did my immune system over power it (temporarily  possibly?).

3) If I had it  - did I have the milder of the 2 current  forms, and so was likely to recover anyway? 

3) Did 'quinine'  in fact do what the papers where claiming?

4) By this weekend I will be 10 days in - so hopefully all is well, and some of my questions will be answered..

5) I am in quarantine for another 7 days. 

Re point 3 and 4 above, I have now discovered that if I need I do have some Avloclor locked away from my holidays in the Indian Ocean, and Africa.

Next stage -

So I have just gone back to research and came up with this paper from the top French equatorial virologist (just released) early.

https://www.connexionfrance.com/French-news/French-researcher-in-Marseille-posts-successful-Covid-19-coronavirus-drug-trial-results

Also Belgium seems to be taking it seriously 

https://epidemio.wiv-isp.be/ID/Documents/Covid19/COVID-19_InterimGuidelines_Treatment_ENG.pdf

Also reports from South Korea where they are working along the Chinese lines  where, like China, they 'appear' to be stopping the virus dead in its tracks.

Talking about China - How comes the spread of the virus, outside Wuhan, has not reflected that in Europe?

A week ago, the Chinese sent a plane load of medics and Ventilators to Italy - they seemed to be in very good form and looked as if they were returning from winning the world cup as they stopped at the top of the planes gangway!!.

It is now reported that Lombardy (to where they were dispatched) is already showing signs of improvement. 

The question is how much of this 'effect' is caused by the total 'lockdown', and how much is caused by these drugs?.

I have just seen  the 'headlines' of another paper issued in France yesterday that is behind pay walls that shows that Chloro-quine in conjunction with an Antibiotic  (back to me original posting) is almost 100% effective in  clearing most of the worst cases studied .

Enough for now, clearly much more to come....  this whole area is moving along so quickly.

I chose to use this thread to have a reasonable discussion, rather than the crazy action going on in the other thread.  Is that OK,  Mike P?

MIA  

 

 

Edited March 18, 2020 by Midlands Ice Age

[frosty ground]

2 hours ago, kold weather said:

Looking increasingly likely that although hot temperatures might slow the spread, it will not be enough to prevent transmission occuring. SE Asia's cases have seemingly mostly been spread via a religious festival (again!) but transmission has seemingly happened fairly readily at temperatures into the 30s.

I'm not sure whether once you get into the 40s it starts to have a larger impact, but in this country frankly that isn't going to be something that is going to happen. 

Air conditioning will be playing a part, de-humidified recycled air.

[Midlands Ice Age]

1 hour ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

 

Enough for now, clearly much more to come....  this whole area is moving along so quickly.

I chose to use this thread to have a reasonable discussion, rather than the crazy action going on in the other thread.  Is that OK,  Mike P?

MIA  

 

 

Another paper  produced in France on the effectiveness of the combination of Chloroquine and an Antibacterial. 

Go to the end of the link if you cannot read French. There's some really interesting data charts.

https://www.mediterranee-infection.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/COVID-19.pdf

It describes how a combination of Chloroquine and an Antibiotic seems to be extremely effective in reducing fatalities and serious illnesses.

From a facebook article by a sceptic doctor in France comes this apparent change of mind -  (I think - my French is not too brilliant after 60 years!).

https://www.urgence-france.com/2020/03/17/urgent-la-pitie-salpetriere-a-paris-passe-ses-patients-sous-chloroquine/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook

 

 

The evidence really is getting pretty convincing now. 

More and more countries seem to be choosing this approach (while testing other potential candidates, such as the expensive Remdesivir,  which also apparently works - but is much more expensive, and needs more testing). People are claiming that the 2 together are totally effective.

The real advantage is that this method is extremely cheap and ready, and even if proved not 100%, it will not require much human testing.

An antiviral virus injection (jab) , will be much longer and be very much more costly.  PS Just seen BBC news talking to researchers in Cambridge who are talking worldwide to find the final and best product, but they expect it to be next year, before it is ready.  

I would take Chloroquine  immediately if I was a sufferer and was given the chance, since I have been on a course on 2 occasions in the fairly recent past for Malaria .. and I had no reactions.  But there are some - so do not do take without specialist advice.  

Will it produce natural resistance in the community is the only problem I can see with any more widespread usage?

I guess Boris wants to reduce it to being a natural 'influenza' type problem, though it does seem to be that it could use replication to change itself into different forms.

Perhaps it should be offered to people in the 'at risk' category, whilst enabling the population at large to produce natural resistance?. 

The UK Medical Council have a lot to think about!

MIA

 

 

[Mucka]

I'm not sure how any antibiotic could have any effect on a virus.

I suppose it is possible it could help with any secondary infections or pneumococcal resulting from Covid-19  but I expect these would be treated anyway.

 

 

[Midlands Ice Age]

5 minutes ago, Mucka said:

I'm not sure how any antibiotic could have any effect on a virus.

I suppose it is possible it could help with any secondary infections or pneumococcal resulting from Covid-19  but I expect these would be treated anyway.

 

 

Correct!

The post I brought forward at the start of this latest discussion  describes how bacteria appears to be a cause of a hastened death in many patients ( from Liverpool Uni).

More time will give the bodies natural defences (and any other drugs) more time to 'kick in'.

MIA

[Midlands Ice Age]

Been out for a quick walkaround outdoors, despite the rain. - Avoided other people. Feel much better for it.

 

I have now been looking at why quinine works.  (if it does)

 

It was developed as a Malaria prophylactic, many years ago and various types have been used for Rheumatoid Arthritis. 

For Malaria it is now used as a multi-component as the infection has developed resistance.

It was tested again during the SARs infection outbreak and was found to active against it. It was thought to affect the pH of the cells in which it was absorbed, and this prevented further replication.

It was not required to be used, as SAR's virus had a very low replication rate (<0.8) and died out, before it was used.

SARS is a coronavirus, similar to Corvid-19, with an RNA  similar structure.

Hence there was some knowledge/possible ideas on its efficacy.

It has now been found that Chloroquinine gets into the cell structure very efficiently,  leaving a 'hole'. It is believed that this is the process they are calling  'an intracellular zinc inhibitor'.  This 'hole' allows Zinc to enter the virus and it is able to block the enzymes productive processes.  Elderly people have less Zinc available in their bodies so...…. 

See below (around 9 minutes into)   the video.-

It is a YouTube video so I am not certain it will display.

 

They have now proved the path in the laboratory, and so they are assuming (and are convinced) that the same process has been active in the 8 hospitals in China, which have been trialling the drugs use against Covid-19. All have reported similar results. 

Is it a spoof? If it is,  it is  very highly complex,  and involves some serious scientists and Medical consultants  around the world.  

Will  NICE want to carry out full testing before it is convinced?

 

Trump is claiming  that in the US they are already ready to begin trialling a new vaccine.

Things are moving rapidly.

MIA 

 

Edited March 18, 2020 by Midlands Ice Age

[Mike Poole]

53 minutes ago, swebby said:

An interesting read this

Why do dozens of diseases wax and wane with the seasons—and will COVID-19?

WWW.SCIENCEMAG.ORG

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Scientists are unraveling why each pathogen has its own calendar

Covid-19 is a virus that has an envelope structure, which is a positive for the potential of it struggling come summer.

Just copying this here because it is directly relevant to this thread.

[Mike Poole]

21 hours ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Been out for a quick walkaround outdoors, despite the rain. - Avoided other people. Feel much better for it.

 

I have now been looking at why quinine works.  (if it does)

 

It was developed as a Malaria prophylactic, many years ago and various types have been used for Rheumatoid Arthritis. 

For Malaria it is now used as a multi-component as the infection has developed resistance.

It was tested again during the SARs infection outbreak and was found to active against it. It was thought to affect the pH of the cells in which it was absorbed, and this prevented further replication.

It was not required to be used, as SAR's virus had a very low replication rate (<0.8) and died out, before it was used.

SARS is a coronavirus, similar to Corvid-19, with an RNA  similar structure.

Hence there was some knowledge/possible ideas on its efficacy.

It has now been found that Chloroquinine gets into the cell structure very efficiently,  leaving a 'hole'. It is believed that this is the process they are calling  'an intracellular zinc inhibitor'.  This 'hole' allows Zinc to enter the virus and it is able to block the enzymes productive processes.  Elderly people have less Zinc available in their bodies so...…. 

See below (around 9 minutes into)   the video.-

It is a YouTube video so I am not certain it will display.

 

They have now proved the path in the laboratory, and so they are assuming (and are convinced) that the same process has been active in the 8 hospitals in China, which have been trialling the drugs use against Covid-19. All have reported similar results. 

Is it a spoof? If it is,  it is  very highly complex,  and involves some serious scientists and Medical consultants  around the world.  

Will  NICE want to carry out full testing before it is convinced?

 

Trump is claiming  that in the US they are already ready to begin trialling a new vaccine.

Things are moving rapidly.

MIA 

 

Breaking news...Trump has just been talking about chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine at a press conference Ive  been watching on BBC news, looks like this is real...

Edited March 19, 2020 by Mike Poole

[Azazel]

I have a stock of chloroquine in my cupboard and zinc too so hopefully it is the real deal!

[York-snow]

Anyone else noticed how clean the air seems today? Not sure if I’m imagining it but it feels like there’s less pollution in the air. Hopefully we use this as a reset to reduce emissions, but with the economy taking a beating, funding for any change will not be available.

[Midlands Ice Age]

3 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

Breaking news...Trump has just been talking about chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine at a press conference Ive  been watching on BBC news, looks like this is real...

So we now have 8 hospitals in Wuhan (and surrounds - right out to Beijing), France has today agreed to spend money on larger trials (the first was 44), Belgium looking into it seriously (see my post of yesterday). South Korea also rumoured to have been using it.

and now Trump. The US have not had a Malaria outbreak, but stock piled heavily during the Vietnam War for use by the forces personnel. He must be planning on using some of this.. He has, in addition, put out a requisition for the chemicals to make the products. 

It all looks as though most places are 'willing to back' (perhaps though a lack of choice), that it works.

Meanwhile Boris talks about more testing (again), but on the local Midlands program tonight a small company claims to have produced a test that looks a bit like a pregnancy test (but on your own blood (so very safe)), and offered it to the government early this week. It takes 10 mins and will indicate whether you currently have it, or whether you have recovered, from it. He claims he has received no reply. He has received hundreds of demands from overseas firms!.

""" Update Matt Hancock (on QT) has just announced he is buying it"""""   

Boris is talking about having trials of an inhaler type device containing an Interferon based compound (expensive!), which it is claimed, is believed to kill of the virus in the lungs, as it develops.

Chloro and hydrocholoroquinines  are manufactured in the UK and India. At least we have stopped them being exported, so someone considered that they could be useful.

Why are we hesitating rolling out Quinines? (In conjunction with a useful Macrolide or Antibiotic). It will cost peanuts, and we know it has very few side-effects. In any case the staff (as in the French trails) can watch out for anything, where they even took a couple of people off the trial.

Instead we still appear to be concentrating  on the long term solution, when we may not need to allow so many deaths. 

Is it the usual (slow) response from the NHS?  Things are changing rapidly.

The current approach being used, although being refined and updated,   appears to accept a certain loss of life that may not be necessary.

I am concerned that NICE appear to be apart of the  process of designing the governments response to this problem.. 

MIA

[The PIT]

Doesn't Quinines have side effects ?

[Mike Poole]

7 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Doesn't Quinines have side effects ?

If quinine, taken in tonic water, with large amounts of gin, it might make you very drunk!

Edited March 19, 2020 by Mike Poole

[Methuselah]

7 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

If quinine, taken in tonic water, with large amounts of gin, it might make you very drunk!

Funny you should say that, Mike...Lidl actually had some!

[The PIT]

This will cause even more panic

Supermarkets 'drastically' cutting product ranges

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

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Retailers feel the strain with delivery services at full capacity and extra security hired at stores.

 

 

[Mike Poole]

15 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Funny you should say that, Mike...Lidl actually had some!

My Sainsbury's   had none at all today, Pete,  it is though a single piece in the jigsaw we need to solve to get out of this nightmare....

Edited March 19, 2020 by Mike Poole

[Midlands Ice Age]

42 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Doesn't Quinines have side effects ?

As discussed earlier, I too have taken to the G and Tonic  habit!

Chloro quinines have been used for medically for about 70 years. I think by now that any side affects will be understood.  

Usage of Hydoxycholoqinines is about 40 - 50 years.

They are used on the day ward that I have been volunteering on - which is for Rheumatoid  Arthritis - where they relieve many of the painful symptoms. Patients are very happy to be treated on a long term basis. 

So they are  extensively used and the risks are slight.

The one issue could be the effect of entering into the Covid virus may cause additional side effects, but the understanding is that the net result is that Zinc gets in to stop any additional problems. 

There is one slightly more concerning side effect in that on prolonged usage (many months/years?) the compounds can cause a slight loss of vision clarity. Oh yes  and then there is the normal ones that that of bowel looseness, and possible sickness that most drugs can cause.

I think the plan would be just for a 10 day treatment (max)  for removing the virus..

MIA

 

Edited March 19, 2020 by Midlands Ice Age

[Sir Mim]

On 18/03/2020 at 13:32, Mucka said:

I'm not sure how any antibiotic could have any effect on a virus.

I suppose it is possible it could help with any secondary infections or pneumococcal resulting from Covid-19  but I expect these would be treated anyway.

 

 

Yes, while the immune system is preoccupied with fighting the coronavirus bacterial infections can take hold in the lungs.

 

This is actually one of the principal ways measles results in death - secondary bacterial infections.

Edited March 20, 2020 by Mr TOAD

[Midlands Ice Age]

A personal update to follow on from  my above posts... (which detailed, in some detail, the symptoms as I recorded them)

Today is my 14th day since I came into contact with my 'provider'. (I am pretty certain I know who it was, as he had just flown back from Madrid, and as I immediately put myself in voluntary isolation, with my wife). Very lucky to be able to do this as the younger family were away for the weekend.

3 days after contact I came down with the high temperatures. - So I am 11 days now since the fever broke out.

I have not had a dry cough to any noticeable extent (perhaps one cough  a day!, and I have sneezed on about half of the days).

My wife displayed a similar temperatures and experienced a strange sickness bout, about  5 days ago, but otherwise her very good immune system seems in control. 

In the last 3 or 4 days I have developed a wet 'cough' from my lower throat and upper chest  but my nose has been totally dry  for the whole period.  (which I have never had before in my life!). 

Since I am now 76 years old. I am having to keep  maintaining self isolation and having my food brought in.

I do NOT know if I have had Covid -19, but what I have had is nothing like any cold of flu I have had before.

My symptoms so far have been very mild, and I consider myself very lucky.

As I was a volunteer in the NHS, before this event, (when before it started, they told me to stop, because I was in the  very high risk category!) , I would love to get back into the NHS, and so I am very keen to get back to help,

I am intending pushing for the anti-body test, asap (but only when it becomes generally available, since it is imperative that carers, police, fireman  and particularly hospital staff are tested first).

I have lost about 0.5kilo of weight (very happily for me).

I am aware of 2 acquaintances (family of friends) who have died from the virus - though I have not seen them for a couple of months.

Again personally, I shall be watching carefully for the next 4 days - up to day 18. This is because  I have noticed that a few people who have had a mild form of the virus, seem to get very poorly suddenly at this time, but after that …….I am already beginning to feel recharged.

I have posted the above in case it can help anyone else as to what they might expect from a mild dose of the virus.

I suspect it may be typical of a very mild presentation of symptoms of the virus.

MIA

   

 

Edited March 27, 2020 by Midlands Ice Age